Double Winning St Johnstone FC Thread

[Radford]

The only reason anyone would dislike the post above is that it invalidates opinions. 

What was Hendry's xG (per game?) last season. Basically, if he played more regularly this season, using the 95% figure, how many goals should we have been expecting from him based on last season's numbers? Is his xG much lower this term? 

Wednesday poses some tough questions for the manager. Some would maybe argue we "don't need" to play Liam Craig against Accies but that gapping space between midfield and defence won't suddenly disappear. I'd be tempted to go with the same midfield three but the manager will be conscious of having three games in a week. 

I'd keep Rooney in ahead of Kerr. No player should have the shirt guaranteed and Kerr made errors against both Livingston and St Mirren. Rooney hasn't put a foot wrong and you need to reward that. 

Maybe we'll finally see another start for Melamed?

[tree house tam]

Melamed probably has to come in in one of these next few games. We can't see what he has to offer, or lacks to offer, playing the minutes he has, he's jumped up 2 places nearer the starting 11 through other folks actions rather than how he can play. I'm all for giving him the chance to impress, just take it wee man.

Edited December 27, 2020 by tree house tam

[Jamie_B]

I don’t think I’d start Melamed against Accies but I’d be inclined to give him at least half an hour to actually make some kind of an impression on the game.

[nelsjfc]

It really has been a season of fine margins. A decent keeper would have made a massive difference this year. Look at the points Benjamin Siegrist has help secure for United. Then there's the decisions against Hibs and Aberdeen.

Back to Melamed, it's difficult to make a case either way as we've simply not seen enough. The original excitement around his arrival suggests there's a player there but can't help but feel it's a classic case of a player becoming better every week he doesn't play amongst the fans.

[Valentino Bolognese]

1 hour ago, Radford said:

The only reason anyone would dislike the post above is that it invalidates opinions. 

What was Hendry's xG (per game?) last season. Basically, if he played more regularly this season, using the 95% figure, how many goals should we have been expecting from him based on last season's numbers? Is his xG much lower this term? 

Wednesday poses some tough questions for the manager. Some would maybe argue we "don't need" to play Liam Craig against Accies but that gapping space between midfield and defence won't suddenly disappear. I'd be tempted to go with the same midfield three but the manager will be conscious of having three games in a week. 

I'd keep Rooney in ahead of Kerr. No player should have the shirt guaranteed and Kerr made errors against both Livingston and St Mirren. Rooney hasn't put a foot wrong and you need to reward that. 

Maybe we'll finally see another start for Melamed?

Kerr has played midfield in the past. Might he be an option for the holding role? 

Would be happy to see Melamed start, giving May or Kane a bit of a rest. 

[RandomGuy.]

1 hour ago, Radford said:

What was Hendry's xG (per game?) last season. Basically, if he played more regularly this season, using the 95% figure, how many goals should we have been expecting from him based on last season's numbers? Is his xG much lower this term? 

His xG per 90 last season was 0.5, this season its 0.38. He scored 0.88p90 last season, and obviously 0 this season. Its not a magical force, but its just him "normalizing" to being an average striker again. 

58.17% of his shots on target were ending on goals, the average is 36.89%.

Every goal scoring metric for him was far above average, and close to being the best of any striker in that timeframe. I like Hendry, but it was always hugely unlikely he would maintain those sort of figures if Griffiths/Edouard/Dembele/Boyce/Moult/Morelos couldn't.

Mays "xG conversion" in his final season at Aberdeen was a 66.7% underperformance with an xGp90 of 0.27, this meant there was a high chance he would massively improve the next season if he could get a similar xG. His 2019/20 xGp90 was 0.29, and he swung from a 66.7% underperformance, to a 10.34% overperformance. You'd then expect him to stabilise to the norm. This season his xG performance is a 2.38% underperformance, almost normal.

Doesnt always work, Tony Watt almost always underperforms his xG heavily, for example. It rests on Hendry to actually take the chances, and it should happen at some point this season if he keeps getting chances.

[The Saintee]

A big difference for me is that last season Hendry was taking chances. This season he isn't.

[PauloPerth]

2 hours ago, Radford said:

The only reason anyone would dislike the post above is that it invalidates opinions. 

Interested to know which opinions it invalidates.

Because if you're going along with the argument that the only difference between last season's team and this is Callum Hendry's scoring rate, then I'm calling bullshit on that one I'm afraid!

[tree house tam]

15 minutes ago, The Saintee said:

A big difference for me is that last season Hendry was taking chances. This season he isn't.

  love this.

Let's just put that In percentages though, solves the problems that your eyes make.

[Kyle]

23 minutes ago, PauloPerth said:

Interested to know which opinions it invalidates.

Because if you're going along with the argument that the only difference between last season's team and this is Callum Hendry's scoring rate, then I'm calling bullshit on that one I'm afraid!

100% this. 

[RandomGuy.]

26 minutes ago, PauloPerth said:

Interested to know which opinions it invalidates.

Because if you're going along with the argument that the only difference between last season's team and this is Callum Hendry's scoring rate, then I'm calling bullshit on that one I'm afraid!

Hendry scoring at a normal rate this season would've scored 3 goals.

At last seasons playing/scoring rate, he would've scored 5 goals.

Those 5 goals, going by xG, would've likely been the first goal at Ibrox, a goal at Rugby Park, an early goal v St Mirren at home, an equaliser at home to Livingston, and an equaliser against County.

As I say, I know you all think this is shite, and just random numbers, but Hendry last season was scoring chances he shouldn't have been, and is missing chances this season he should be scoring.

Take away Hendry last season and we're arguably 4pts down and finish 8th. Hendry "normalising" this season means we're arguably 2pts down this season, those 2pts would have us 8th.

I know folk don't agree, and thats fine as I'm probably wrong, but, to me, last season we overperformed due to Hendry overperforming, and this season his underperformance is hindering us, and in reality the squad meets somewhere in the middle. 

Theres clearly been tactical issues that leave us too wide open, but a few of those issues were there last season (look at the win over Hamilton at home last season, wide open on the counter for their first, bottle a simple set piece and give away a late penalty/Hendry scores winner from difficult chance, this season he balloons that).

I just feel like last seasons squad was over rated due to Hendry bagging these goals and getting us points, and now folk are expecting more from this group than they should be, especially since it is a weaker group and you have Clark chucking them in every week.

[Kyle]

It’s not just because Hendry isn’t scoring though, that’s the bigger point for me. This season May is scoring more often, as is Spoony. Surely they’ve taken up the slack of Hendry not scoring? Hendry did score important goals but didn’t he only score 8 or 9 goals last season? It’s not like we’ve lost the 2013/14 Stevie May. 

 The far bigger issue - right now anyway - is the goalkeeper conceding poor goals and the defence giving up too many good chances.

for the record, I don’t think your stats and posts are a load of shite. I think they contextualise the problems. Often my eyes tell me a problem which stats (yours and others) back up. I wouldn’t be downbeat about people debating with you on these points, I’d take it as a compliment that we’re engaging with you on it.

 
 

 

 

[RandomGuy.]

6 minutes ago, Kyle said:

It’s not just because Hendry isn’t scoring though, that’s the bigger point for me. This season May is scoring more often, as is Spoony. Surely they’ve taken up the slack of Hendry not scoring? Hendry did score important goals but didn’t he only score 8 or 9 goals last season? It’s not like we’ve lost the 2013/14 Stevie May. 

 The far bigger issue - right now anyway - is the goalkeeper conceding poor goals and the defence giving up too many good chances.

I'm not trying to say its the main problem, just thats I believe last seasons squad/season performance was over rated due to it, so people are expected this group of players to achieve more than they should be. I feel like games like the 3-2 win over Hamilton and 1-1 with County at home were similar performances to what we've seen this season, but Hendry scored last season in those games to change the context of how you view them now, whereas this season hes not. I'm not really presenting it well though and probably causing more confusion the way I'm saying it.

FWIW, after this weeking, Clarks "xG against" per 90 is now exactly the same as Jak Alnwick of St Mirren (1.21), hes facing less shots per90 (3.01 v 4.38), yet is conceding far more per90 (Clark 1.61, Alnwick 0.81)...

[PauloPerth]

26 minutes ago, RandomGuy. said:

Hendry scoring at a normal rate this season would've scored 3 goals.

At last seasons playing/scoring rate, he would've scored 5 goals.

Those 5 goals, going by xG, would've likely been the first goal at Ibrox, a goal at Rugby Park, an early goal v St Mirren at home, an equaliser at home to Livingston, and an equaliser against County.

As I say, I know you all think this is shite, and just random numbers, but Hendry last season was scoring chances he shouldn't have been, and is missing chances this season he should be scoring.

Take away Hendry last season and we're arguably 4pts down and finish 8th. Hendry "normalising" this season means we're arguably 2pts down this season, those 2pts would have us 8th.

I know folk don't agree, and thats fine as I'm probably wrong, but, to me, last season we overperformed due to Hendry overperforming, and this season his underperformance is hindering us, and in reality the squad meets somewhere in the middle. 

Theres clearly been tactical issues that leave us too wide open, but a few of those issues were there last season (look at the win over Hamilton at home last season, wide open on the counter for their first, bottle a simple set piece and give away a late penalty/Hendry scores winner from difficult chance, this season he balloons that).

I just feel like last seasons squad was over rated due to Hendry bagging these goals and getting us points, and now folk are expecting more from this group than they should be, especially since it is a weaker group and you have Clark chucking them in every week.

As Kyle says, I don't think it's shite at all. The stats and pretty much everyone watching us over the past year would all point to Callum Hendry not scoring anywhere near the same amount or looking like the same player.

The point I'm arguing is I don't accept that as being the sole reason we improved last season. If you look at the stats from the previous page In terms of defence;

 

First 14 matches of last season; conceded 2.36 goals per game. 1 clean sheet.

final 15 matches of last season;  conceded 0.87 goals per game.  7 clean sheets.

This season so far;  conceded 1.5 goals per game.  3 clean sheets.

 Almost double the amount from the second half of 2019-20 to now with the same goalkeeper and defence apart from the right back.

Although it sounds negative, I view it the other way in terms of this group of players being good enough to be doing far better in terms of points and league position.  We need to focus on the way we set up and approach games; when you're struggling go back to being tight and hard to break down.  It's upto Davidson to find the best way to achieve that.

 

[PauloPerth]

Hadn't seen your reply to Kyle RG when I posted that.

[RandomGuy.]

31 minutes ago, Kyle said:

This season May is scoring more often, as is Spoony. Surely they’ve taken up the slack of Hendry not scoring?

This is their combined figures.

19/20

Wotherspoon/May/Hendry combined xGp90 19/20: 0.93 (35 over 38 games)

Combined goalsp90 19/20: 1.38 (52 over 38 games)

Difference: +0.45  (+17 over 38 games)

We obviously didn't score 40 goals last season, this is just showing the rate at which we would've scored if those 3 players had played every minute of every game, and scored at the exact same rate they ended the season at as its the easiest way to present this. 

20/21

Wotherspoon/May/Hendry combined xGp90 20/21: 0.88 (33 over 38 games)

Combined goalsp90 20/21: 0.57 (22 over 38 games)

Difference: -0.37 ( -11 over 38 games)

 

Hendry overperformed his xG by 0.38 last season, and is underperforming his xG by 0.35 this season.

Edited December 27, 2020 by RandomGuy.

[RandomGuy.]

17 minutes ago, PauloPerth said:

First 14 matches of last season; conceded 2.36 goals per game. 1 clean sheet.

final 15 matches of last season;  conceded 0.87 goals per game.  7 clean sheets.

This season so far;  conceded 1.5 goals per game.  3 clean sheets

I've not checked, but this could just be a case of things "normalising" aswell. It genuinely seems to be a thing when you maintain a group of players over a length of time, form fluctuates/settles/fluctuates. This season sits almost exactly in the middle of what looks like one of the worst defensive performances imaginable, then one that looks brilliant.

Skill in the likes of McInnes seems to be keeping things stable for as long as possible, they rarely overperform themselves, but rarely struggle either. TW seemed able to get the squad overperforming every time they underperformed, which I guess is why he was so good.

[tree house tam]

1 hour ago, PauloPerth said:

 We need to focus on the way we set up and approach games; when you're struggling go back to being tight and hard to break down.  It's upto Davidson to find the best way to achieve that.

 

This is what Micky Mellon has done, sure the fans haven't liked it but if they manage to somehow squeak a European place do you think they'll give a single f**k?

Football philosophy is great, we should all try and play the passing game with wee intricate one touch triangles and be the best we can. Being stubborn when the players cannot do what you're asking them will just get you the sack unless you have free reign to change those players. You don't need experience to know that.

[Kyle]

In essence that’s my problem with Davidson as well. I don’t doubt he’s trying to play the right way but I think he needs to be more pragmatic right now until he can build his own squad and sign some more players who are comfortable in his shape and try it again. 
 

I think the aim has to be to stay up this season got  the circumstances.  If he wants to persist in this shape then release the bulk out of the out of contract players and start again. 
 

 

[RandomGuy.]

21 minutes ago, tree house tam said:

This is what Micky Mellon has done, sure the fans haven't liked it but if they manage to somehow squeak a European place do you think they'll give a single f**k?

Football philosophy is great, we should all try and play the passing game with wee intricate one touch triangles and be the best we can. Being stubborn when the players cannot do what you're asking them will just get you the sack unless you have free reign to change those players. You don't need experience to know that.

Works both ways though. Alex Dyer seems to have gone into Killie, tried to keep things exactly as they were, and they've now got an ageing squad hard coded to play a certain way and absolutely no way out that rot without changing both manager and players.

Davidson at least introduced something different to the players, its not worked and he held onto it too long, but just shuffling along as TW mk2 wouldn't necessarily have been a success either. Next two transfer windows feel massive to me, so the quicker we can pick up points and make ourselves safe the better. I don't think we can be sitting in March without clarity and the chairman/DOF refusing to sanction deals.