Coefficientwatch

[craigkillie]

1 hour ago, Marr1 said:

It's divided by four though, so it's a 1pt boost to the overall coefficient.

As for the EL, I was going by this: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/UEFA_coefficient#Club_coefficient

 

That's the individual club coefficient, not the country coefficient.

[lionel hutz]

39 minutes ago, craigkillie said:

That's the individual club coefficient, not the country coefficient.

Fair enough.

I thought it carried through.

Edited July 29, 2016 by Marr1

[Mordecai]

12 hours ago, Marr1 said:

Celtic and Aberdeen's draws have helped our coefficient, however after Legia's win, Scotland are no closer to Poland and after Qarabag and Qabala's draws we're no further ahead of Azerbaijan

Pos. -  Country - 16/17 - Total - Teams Left (Bold = CL)
15.  Croatia -  2.550 - 22.625 - 4/4 - Dinamo Zagreb, Rijeka, Hajduk Split, Lokomotiva Zagreb,
16.  Romania - 0.300 - 21.350 - 4/5 - Astra , Steaua Bucarest, Pandurii Targu Jiu, Viitorul Constanta
17.  Austria - 2.250 - 20.225 - 4/4 - RB Salzburg, Rapid Wien, Austria Wien, Admira Wacker
18.  Belarus - 2.875 - 19.750 - 3/4 - BATE, Torpedo Zhodino, Dinamo Minsk
19.  Sweden - 2.250 - 19.225 - 2/4 - AIK, IFK Goteburg
20.  Denmark - 3.120 -18.625 - 4/4 - FC Copenhagen, SonderjyskE, Midtjylland, Brondby
21.  Norway - 1.375 - 18.325 - 1/4 - Rosenborg BK
22.  Poland - 1.250 - 17.125 - 2/4 - Legia Warsaw, Zaglebie Lubin
23.  Scotland - 2.125 - 16.675 - 2/4 - Celtic, Aberdeen
24.  Azerbaijan - 2.125 - 15.625 - 2/4 - Qarabag, Qabala

The good news is that Poland look like they'll be down to a sole team in Europe as Zaglebie Lubin lost at home to SonderjyskE. If both Celtic and Aberdeen win next week and both Polish sides lose on the night Scotland will be up into 22nd place, and Scotland may gain a 1 pt bonus for Celtic's participation in the CL groups stages. Plus any wins or draws count double from then onwards. Whilst APOEL need to overturn a 2-1 deficit to prevent Rosenborg from doing the same. Further up the table Romania look like they will be down to just three teams as Viitorul and Pandurii suffered pastings against Genk and Maccabai. 

Edit: just noticed both Swedish sides lost tonight, they could easily lose all European competitors in this round.

 

Romania could be on the verge of an absolutely terrible season in Europe. At the moment they have no teams automatically in the group stages, so no automatic bonus points. None of their teams have won a game so far either - Astra drew 1-1 at home with Copenhagen and Steaua Bucharest drew 1-1 away at Sparta Prague and as you said their other teams were beaten in the Europa league (although it was by Gent, not Genk). Last season they accumulated 2.25 points, which was less than Scotland and way down on their usual average. At the moment they're on 0.3 points for the season and any points they do manage to gain will be divided by 5 (CSMS Iasi have already been eliminated). If none of their teams progress from this round, which isn't outwith the realms of reasonable possibility, then they'll be dropping to around 25th or 26th in the rankings next season.

 

As for Scotland, I think we need to have a decent season to remain ahead of Azerbaijan, but we could also jump ahead of Norway and Poland as you said.

[lionel hutz]

3 minutes ago, Mordecai said:

 

(although it was by Gent, not Genk)

As for Scotland, I think we need to have a decent season to remain ahead of Azerbaijan, but we could also jump ahead of Norway and Poland as you said.

I knew I was gonna make that mistake, Genk were the ones playing Cork.

A wee bit O/T but the Republic has a decent chance of getting one side through into the next round. Dundalk only lost 1-0 in Belarus to BATE Borislov and Genk won 1-0 against Cork. With both teams at home in the second leg, you might give one of them a slight chance of making it through.

They're no threat to Scotland in the coefficient, btw, They're in 42nd place with a total score of 5.450.

[Mordecai]

13 minutes ago, Marr1 said:

I knew I was gonna make that mistake, Genk were the ones playing Cork.

A wee bit O/T but the Republic has a decent chance of getting one side through into the next round. Dundalk only lost 1-0 in Belarus to BATE Borislov and Genk won 1-0 against Cork. With both teams at home in the second leg, you might give one of them a slight chance of making it through.

They're no threat to Scotland in the coefficient, btw, They're in 42nd place with a total score of 5.450.

 

That is rather O/T, but stranger things have happened. I'd have more faith in Cork than Dundalk tbh. Both the Irish and Belarussian leagues are halfway through their seasons, whereas the Belgian league hasn't started yet. Although if BATE were to be eliminated it would certainly be doing us a favour. If I was betting on it, I'd still have both Irish teams being put out as neither have the all important away goal.

Realistically I think the best that we can hope for this season is 21st. Denmark are in 20th and are currently leading the overall table for the season, plus they still have all of their teams still in. Even if Sweden do lose their last 2 participants (which is looking likely at the moment), I think the extra 2.55 points that we need may be too much of a jump for us at the moment. Certainly not impossible, but it would be our best European season since 07/08.

[ScoRoss]

http://kassiesa.home.xs4all.nl/bert/uefa/data/method4/crank2017.html

[lionel hutz]

48 minutes ago, Mordecai said:

 

That is rather O/T, but stranger things have happened. I'd have more faith in Cork than Dundalk tbh. Both the Irish and Belarussian leagues are halfway through their seasons, whereas the Belgian league hasn't started yet. Although if BATE were to be eliminated it would certainly be doing us a favour. If I was betting on it, I'd still have both Irish teams being put out as neither have the all important away goal.

Realistically I think the best that we can hope for this season is 21st. Denmark are in 20th and are currently leading the overall table for the season, plus they still have all of their teams still in. Even if Sweden do lose their last 2 participants (which is looking likely at the moment), I think the extra 2.55 points that we need may be too much of a jump for us at the moment. Certainly not impossible, but it would be our best European season since 07/08.

Yeah the Hibs - Brondby shootout screwed any chance of us catching Denmark.

[craigkillie]

The Hibs v Brondby shootout is probably totally irrelevant.  Brondby will probably lose both legs against Hertha Berlin, and Hibs probably would have done too.

[d31]

I feel hopeful we can have our best season in a while - it could have been even better though with a bit more luck

[lionel hutz]

1 hour ago, craigkillie said:

The Hibs v Brondby shootout is probably totally irrelevant.  Brondby will probably lose both legs against Hertha Berlin, and Hibs probably would have done too.

I think Brondby win in Denmark, 1-0.

[Mordecai]

On 29/07/2016 at 11:57, Mordecai said:

 

That is rather O/T, but stranger things have happened. I'd have more faith in Cork than Dundalk tbh. Both the Irish and Belarussian leagues are halfway through their seasons, whereas the Belgian league hasn't started yet. Although if BATE were to be eliminated it would certainly be doing us a favour. If I was betting on it, I'd still have both Irish teams being put out as neither have the all important away goal.

Realistically I think the best that we can hope for this season is 21st. Denmark are in 20th and are currently leading the overall table for the season, plus they still have all of their teams still in. Even if Sweden do lose their last 2 participants (which is looking likely at the moment), I think the extra 2.55 points that we need may be too much of a jump for us at the moment. Certainly not impossible, but it would be our best European season since 07/08.

 

Dundalk are 3-0 up at home to BATE and into injury time...shows what I know.

 

Elsewhere Qarabag are out on away goals, so Azerbaijan won't be catching us this season. Norway no longer have any teams left in the competition after Rosenborg crashed out to Apoel Nicosia (losing 3-0 away).

We should be looking to take Norway's 21st spot off them.

[lionel hutz]

(Slightly) Updated Table:

 

 

Pos. -  Country - 16/17 - Total - Teams Left (Bold = CL)
13.  Croatia -  2.750 - 22.825 - 4/4 - Dinamo Zagreb, Rijeka, Hajduk Split, Lokomotiva Zagreb,
14. Greece - 0.700 - 22.800 - 5/5 - All of them
15. Netherlands - 0.400 - 22.363 - 5/5 - All of them
16.  Romania - 0.300 - 21.350 - 4/5 - Astra , Steaua Bucarest, Pandurii Targu Jiu, Viitorul Constanta
17.  Austria - 2.250 - 20.225 - 4/4 - RB Salzburg, Rapid Wien, Austria Wien, Admira Wacker
18.  Belarus - 2.875 - 19.750 - 3/4 - BATE, Torpedo Zhodino, Dinamo Minsk
19.  Sweden - 2.250 - 19.225 - 2/4 - AIK, IFK Goteburg
20.  Denmark - 3.120 -18.625 - 4/4 - FC Copenhagen, SonderjyskE, Midtjylland, Brondby
21.  Norway - 1.375 - 18.325 - 1/4 - Rosenborg BK
22.  Poland - 1.250 - 17.125 - 2/4 - Legia Warsaw, Zaglebie Lubin
23.  Scotland - 2.125 - 16.675 - 2/4 - Celtic, Aberdeen
24.  Azerbaijan - 2.125 - 15.625 - 2/4 - Qarabag, Qabala
 

I cba naming the individual teams from Greece and the Netherlands, I was more showing the fact that Croatia are up into 13th. It's worth noting that Dundalk of the Republic have secured European football until December. Only the 2nd team to do so. As @Mordecai says Norway is now an achievable target for Scotland to catch this season. Personally, I think Sweden, Poland and possibly Belarus are also in range, the latter especially if Aberdeen can pull off a "Dundalk"

[Nightmare]

59 minutes ago, Mordecai said:

 

Norway no longer have any teams left in the competition after Rosenborg crashed out to Apoel Nicosia (losing 3-0 away).

It was 0-0 going into stoppage time as well. 

[lionel hutz]

3 minutes ago, the_saints_are_coming said:

Sensational result for Dundalk. Potential opponent for Celtic in the next round were they to scrape through. Before tonight you'd say that's a much easier proposition than BATE.

BATE would have been seeded, surely?

[lionel hutz]

9 minutes ago, the_saints_are_coming said:

Derek Rae on Twitter was reporting that APOEL scoring late on knocked them down to the top unseeded side.

ETA - That's assuming the seeds win tomorrow, otherwise they'd be seeded.

Thanks for clearing that up.

 

[Dunty]

On 30 July 2016 at 12:50, Marr1 said:

I think Brondby win in Denmark, 1-0.

They couldn't beat Hibs at home but you think they'll beat Hertha Berlin?

[Mordecai]

12 hours ago, Marr1 said:

I cba naming the individual teams from Greece and the Netherlands, I was more showing the fact that Croatia are up into 13th. It's worth noting that Dundalk of the Republic have secured European football until December. Only the 2nd team to do so. As @Mordecai says Norway is now an achievable target for Scotland to catch this season. Personally, I think Sweden, Poland and possibly Belarus are also in range, the latter especially if Aberdeen can pull off a "Dundalk"

I could perhaps see Sweden at a push, but we'd have to have a decent season with Celtic winning a few games in the CL group stage and not finishing bottom. Perhaps they'll spend some money if they qualify and this will seem more reasonable nearer the time. Belarus is probably too far a jump as they still have 3 teams in Europe with BATE dropping down to the Europa league. Dinamo Minsk also have an away goal and are drawing 1-1 on aggregate against Vojvodina and their other team (Torpedo Zhodino) also drew their first leg, but will probably struggle away to Rapid Vienna. It's probably fair to say that Belarus will have 2 teams in the next round of the EL and BATE should be seeded for the draw (I think).

[lionel hutz]

21 minutes ago, Mordecai said:

I could perhaps see Sweden at a push, but we'd have to have a decent season with Celtic winning a few games in the CL group stage and not finishing bottom. Perhaps they'll spend some money if they qualify and this will seem more reasonable nearer the time. Belarus is probably too far a jump as they still have 3 teams in Europe with BATE dropping down to the Europa league. Dinamo Minsk also have an away goal and are drawing 1-1 on aggregate against Vojvodina and their other team (Torpedo Zhodino) also drew their first leg, but will probably struggle away to Rapid Vienna. It's probably fair to say that Belarus will have 2 teams in the next round of the EL and BATE should be seeded for the draw (I think).

Yeah, they're one of the top seeds, who knows they could face Aberdeen

[Mordecai]

9 minutes ago, Marr1 said:

Yeah, they're one of the top seeds, who knows they could face Aberdeen

 

If Aberdeen can make it past Maribor then I see know reason why they couldn't beat a side that Dundalk humped 3-0. So that's encouraging at least...

[lionel hutz]

Update after tonights CL matches

Pos. -  Country - 16/17 - Total - Teams Left (Bold = CL)
13.  Croatia -  2.750 - 22.825 - 4/4 - Dinamo Zagreb, Rijeka, Hajduk Split, Lokomotiva Zagreb,
14.  Greece - 0.700 - 22.800 - 5/5 - Olympiacos, PAOK, Panathinikos, AEK, PAS
15.  Netherlands - 0.600 - 22.563 - 5/5 - PSV, Ajax, Feyenoord, AZ Alkmaar, Heracles
16.  Romania - 0.500 - 21.550 - 4/5 - Astra, Steaua Bucarest, Pandurii Targu Jiu, Viitorul Constanta
17.  Austria - 2.500 - 20.475 - 3/4 - RB Salzburg, Rapid Wien, Austria Wien, 
18.  Belarus - 2.875 - 19.750 - 3/4 - BATE, Torpedo Zhodino, Dinamo Minsk
19.  Sweden - 2.250 - 19.225 - 2/4 - AIK, IFK Goteburg
20.  Denmark - 3.375 - 18.875 - 4/4 - FC Copenhagen, SonderjyskE, Midtjylland, Brondby
21.  Norway - 1.375 - 18.325 - 1/4 - Rosenborg BK
22.  Poland - 1.375 - 17.250 - 2/4 - Legia Warsaw, Zaglebie Lubin
23.  Scotland - 2.375 - 16.925 - 2/4 - Celtic, Aberdeen
24.  Azerbaijan - 2.125 - 15.625 - 2/4 - Qarabag, Qabala

Celtic's late winner in normal time really helped the coefficent and has made sure Scotland has European representation until Christmas. With Legia winning, it means that even if Aberdeen win and Zagleibie lose Scotland could not catch Poland until the Play-off round. Legia and Celtic will be seeded but could face tough opposition with the likes of  Copenhagen, Ludogrets and Dinamo Zagreb all on the unseeded side of the draw. Norway lost Rosenborg from the CL last night and could lose all representatives before the group stages. Rosenborg will most likely be unseeded, which helps Scotland's chances of catching Norway as if Celtic were to qualify for the GS of the CL then the bonus point would put us ahead.

Elsewhere:

FC Kobenhavn defeated Astra and have secured at worst a EL Group stage berth for Denmark.

Red Bull Salzburg defeated some Albanian outfit 3-0 on aggregate and will be seeded in the play-off round. Admira Wacker are out of the Europa league (def. 4-1 by Slovan Liberic) .

A mixed night for Romania as champions Astra were humbled 3-0 (4-1agg) in the Danish capital whilst Steaua were able to win 2-0 at home (3-1agg) to last year's Europa League Quarter-finalists Sparta Prague. Astra will be unseeded in EL and Steaua will be seeded in the CL.

Greece's Champions league campaign is over with both sides falling at the first hurdle to the mighty Hapoel Be'eer shava (def. Olympiacos 1-0) and rather ironically Ajax (def. PAOK 3-2 Agg). So their European campaign could be in tatters before the end of August. 

Games to look out for tomorrow night: Aggregate score included

Vorskla Poltava (Ukr) 0-0 Lokomitiva (Cro)
Rijeka 0-0 Istanbul Basaksehir (Tur)
Hajduk Split  3-0 FC Oleksandriya (Ukr)

AEK (Gre) 0-0 Saint-Ettiane (Fra)
PAS 0-1 AZ Alkmaar (Ned)
AIK Solna (Swe) 0-1 Panathinikos

FC Arouca (Por) 1-1 Heracles (Ned)

Maccabai Tel-Aviv (Isr) 3-1 Pandurii Targu Jiu (Rom)
Viitorul Constanta 0-5 Gent (Bel)

Rapid Wien (Aut) 0-0 Torpedo Zhodino (Blr)
 Spartak Trnava (Svk) 1-0 Austria Wien

Dinamo Minsk (Blr) 1-1 Vojovidina (Srb)

HJK (Fin) 2-1 IFK Goteborg (Swe)

SonderjyskE (Den) 2-1 Zaglebie Lubin (Pol)
Midtjylland 1-0 Videoton (***)
Brondby 0-1 Hertha BSC (Ger)

NK Maribor (Slo) 1-1 Aberdeen (Sco)

Qabala (Aze) 1-1 Lille (Fra)