Brexit slowly becoming a Farce.

[ayrmad]

10 minutes ago, This time Perthshirebell said:

At their highest point the SNP were polling at 60%, at the same time Yes was at (45-48).  I believe that was late 2015 if memory serves me right. 

edit to add it was TNS and June 2015 https://www.commonspace.scot/articles/1561/remarkable-new-poll-suggests-60-of-scots-are-set-to-back-snp-at-holyrood-elections

 

That was after the 2015 GE and well before the Scottish elections, I'm looking for multiple polls approaching elections.

[BawWatchin]

2 minutes ago, This time Perthshirebell said:

 I was making the point Yes is now more popular than SNP, when previously the reverse is true, when you quoted me.  

Search your own polls, it's not hard.   

Yes has pretty much always been more popular than the SNP. The only exception being the 2015 general election.

[ayrmad]

4 minutes ago, This time Perthshirebell said:

 I was making the point Yes is now more popular than SNP, when previously the reverse is true, when you quoted me.  

Search your own polls, it's not hard.   

Without checking, I'd assume that's been the case in the vast majority of polls since indyref 1, can't say I've took much notice in recent years IIBH.

Bawwatchin beat me to it.

Edited July 7, 2019 by ayrmad

[ayrmad]

1 minute ago, This time Perthshirebell said:

 

Which is why I said this.  

 

Which means next to nowt.

[BawWatchin]

3 minutes ago, This time Perthshirebell said:

Makes absolute perfect sense when posters are suggesting the SNP use a potential snap GE as a mandate for independence.    

Next time try joining the rather obvious dots yourself.  

Well yes, it does. Because if the SNP and Greens go all out on an independence platform and the usual suspects continue to oppose independence, then a 50%+ majority would be a clear mandate. I don't think they'll be too many "I support independence but will vote Labour/Tory/LibDem" types after all of this.

[ayrmad]

4 minutes ago, This time Perthshirebell said:

Makes absolute perfect sense when posters are suggesting the SNP use a potential snap GE as a mandate for independence.    

Next time try joining the rather obvious dots yourself.  

No, it makes perfect sense to you who freely admits that 50+ seats means nowt.
 

 

[ayrmad]

4 minutes ago, This time Perthshirebell said:

In this scenario I'd expect the Greens to stand aside.    At least the 50% GE performance you're putting forward makes sense.    Problem is if the SNP throws all their eggs in this basket because they'd lose the parliamentary mandate.    It would be a risky strategy.  

50 seats would mean less than half the votes.    At least BawWatchin's proposals make sense.   

That's the 1st time you've mentioned 50 seats.

[BawWatchin]

2 hours ago, This time Perthshirebell said:

In this scenario I'd expect the Greens to stand aside.    At least the 50% GE performance you're putting forward makes sense.    Problem is if the SNP throws all their eggs in this basket because they'd lose the parliamentary mandate.    It would be a risky strategy.  

50 seats would mean less than half the votes.    At least BawWatchin's proposals make sense.   

The Greens don't need to stand aside. As long as the SNP combined with the greens gets over 50% of the  vote share. That'll be enough.

[ayrmad]

23 minutes ago, BawWatchin said:

The Greens don't need to stand aside. As long as the SNP combined with the greens gets over 50% of the  vote share. That'll be enough.

That's not good enough in UKOK land

[BawWatchin]

9 minutes ago, ayrmad said:

That's not good enough in UKOK land

Who cares. The SNP are still going to mop up over 40% of the vote share. They're guaranteed to gain seats on their already current majority.

Edited July 7, 2019 by BawWatchin

[Bairnardo]

Prior to any Indy vote, and regardless how the political clusterfuck in England affects any Indy vote, the SNP must surely be looking at gains based on their own performance, but also how pathetic labour and the Tories have been over Brexit.

[welshbairn]

Not sure if this changes anything.

Quote

Dear member,

I am proud to lead the Labour Party – the greatest political party and social movement in this country.

We all recognise that the issue of Brexit has been divisive in our communities and sometimes in our party too.

As democrats, Labour accepted the result of the 2016 referendum. In our 2017 manifesto, Labour also committed to oppose a No Deal Brexit and the Tories’ Brexit plans – which threatened jobs, living standards, and the open multicultural society that we as internationalists value so much.

I want to pay tribute to Keir Starmer and the shadow Brexit team for holding the Government to account during this process. That helped secure a meaningful vote on their deal – which we then defeated three times – including inflicting the largest ever defeat on any Government. And following their refusal to publish their legal advice, this Government became the first to be held in contempt of Parliament.

Labour set out a compromise plan to try to bring the country together based around a customs union, a strong single market relationship and protection of environmental regulations and rights at work. We continue to believe this is a sensible alternative that could bring the country together.

But the Prime Minister refused to compromise and was unable to deliver, so we ended cross-party talks.

Now both Tory leadership candidates are threatening a No Deal Brexit - or at best a race to the bottom and a sweetheart deal with Donald Trump: that runs down industry, opens up our NHS and other public services to yet more privatisation, and shreds environmental protections, rights at work and consumer standards.

I have spent the past few weeks consulting with the shadow cabinet, MPs, affiliated unions and the NEC. I have also had feedback from members via the National Policy Forum consultation on Brexit.

Whoever becomes the new Prime Minister should have the confidence to put their deal, or No Deal, back to the people in a public vote.

In those circumstances, I want to make it clear that Labour would campaign for Remain against either No Deal or a Tory deal that does not protect the economy and jobs.

Labour has a crucial, historic duty to safeguard jobs, rights and living standards. But no Brexit outcome alone can do that.

We need a general election. After nine years of austerity, too many people in this country cannot find decent secure well-paid work, and have to rely on public services that have been severely cut back.

Our country is ravaged by inequality and rising poverty, huge regional imbalances of investment, and the government is failing to tackle the climate emergency facing us all.

That is why we need a Labour government to end austerity and rebuild our country for the many not the few.

Yours,

Jeremy Corbyn

 

[J_Stewart]

Two and a half years later than he should have, but Corbyn has just confirmed Labour would back 'Remain' in another referendum if up against No Deal or a 'Tory Brexit'. Would be lovely were it not for the fact that there almost certainly won't be another referendum with Johnson as PM, and Corbyn certainly won't get in to Government to try and initiate one.

[ICTJohnboy]

26 minutes ago, J_Stewart said:

Two and a half years later than he should have, but Corbyn has just confirmed Labour would back 'Remain' in another referendum if up against No Deal or a 'Tory Brexit'. Would be lovely were it not for the fact that there almost certainly won't be another referendum with Johnson as PM, and Corbyn certainly won't get in to Government to try and initiate one.

 

He's also (apparently) said that in the event of an early GE he would be prepared to campaign and support a "Labour negotiated Brexit".

Good ole Jezza... Just you keep your options open son!!

You couldn't make this stuff up.

[harry94]

Two and a half years later than he should have, but Corbyn has just confirmed Labour would back 'Remain' in another referendum if up against No Deal or a 'Tory Brexit'. Would be lovely were it not for the fact that there almost certainly won't be another referendum with Johnson as PM, and Corbyn certainly won't get in to Government to try and initiate one.

He didn't do that at all.

It's just the same position as before. He's not campaigning against Brexit, he's declaring that he will campaign against a deal which he doesn't deem suitable and again a GE is no 1 priority.

They are trying to not take a beating from each side and hold their heartlands which are responsible for electing many of their representatives but in reality, Brexit was always going to change that and shake the electoral map up. I understand their motivations but it's pretty clear that they are living in the past and paralysed in decision making.

[Granny Danger]

1 minute ago, harry94 said:

He didn't do that at all.

It's just the same position as before. He's not campaigning against Brexit, he's declaring that he will campaign against a deal which he doesn't deem suitable and again a GE is no 1 priority.

They are trying to not take a beating from each side and hold their heartlands which are responsible for electing many of their representatives but in reality, Brexit was always going to change that and shake the electoral map up. I understand their motivations but it's pretty clear that they are living in the past and paralysed in decision making.

There is no empirical evidence to suggest that the majority of Labour and would be Labour voters in Leave constituencies voted Leave.

There is evidence that there is a move from Labour voters who did vote Leave to now vote Remain.

 

 

[DeeTillEhDeh]

Fence-sitting wankers

[LongTimeLurker]

So Boris can no longer suspend parliament to run down the clock? Looks like good news that could help block a hard Brexit.

[John Lambies Doos]

So Boris can no longer suspend parliament to run down the clock? Looks like good news that could help block a hard Brexit.

Yes he can, motion today was only updates from NI.

[welshbairn]

30 minutes ago, John Lambies Doos said:

1 hour ago, LongTimeLurker said:

So Boris can no longer suspend parliament to run down the clock? Looks like good news that could help block a hard Brexit.

Yes he can, motion today was only updates from NI.

Bit more difficult for him to close Parliament with the Government having to update them every two weeks on NI progress.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-48930417