Brexit slowly becoming a Farce.

[Kejan]

On 3/8/2019 at 22:19, O'Kelly Isley III said:

Just been watching the 10 O'clock BBC News - please, FFS someone put a hard border around Grimsby, and quickly.

What is it about fishing ports and thickos 

I'll never go to Yorkshire again. They are Brexit in a nutshell. 

Mick from Barnsley telling the 'Europeans' they'd be speaking German or Russian,  if not for Blighty. 

[Kejan]

What realistically happens next? 

No Deal will be voted down/against (Chan eil lingo agam)

And I imagine extended a50 will not pass. 

Surely it's time for a UK election. 

[Tibbermoresaint]

15 minutes ago, Kejan said:

What realistically happens next? 

No Deal will be voted down/against (Chan eil lingo agam)

And I imagine extended a50 will not pass. 

Surely it's time for a UK election. 

Which the Conservatives would win. What would that achieve?

[Benjamin_Nevis]

7 minutes ago, Tibbermoresaint said:

Which the Conservatives would win. What would that achieve?

It doesn't really matter which brand of Tory wins a GE, we're still in the same situation effectively. 

IMO the only thing approaching putting this shite to bed would be a 2nd referendum, and even then you'd need either wide to win very convincingly. The absolute #scenes though if Remain won 50.5 to 49.5 thanks to an overwhelming Remain vote in Scotland. Fantasy stuff of course but it would be fucking glorious. 

[BawWatchin]

47 minutes ago, jupe1407 said:

It doesn't really matter which brand of Tory wins a GE, we're still in the same situation effectively. 

IMO the only thing approaching putting this shite to bed would be a 2nd referendum, and even then you'd need either wide to win very convincingly. The absolute #scenes though if Remain won 50.5 to 49.5 thanks to an overwhelming Remain vote in Scotland. Fantasy stuff of course but it would be fucking glorious. 

Not really. Because then they could say something like "See, Scottish votes do make a difference in our equal family of nations..."
Sure, the seethe from south of the border would be delicious. But the Scotland making the difference point would be getting hammered into everybody relentlessly up here.

[ICTJohnboy]

Hard to see where it all goes from here. The No Deal option is bound to get thrown out later today. Tomorrow there will be a vote on extending A50, but the EU have made it clear they're not going to accept that without a good reason and who can blame them? What good reason can this useless gov/t possibly come up with? I can't see the option of a peoples vote solving anything. The chances are the result would be too close for either side to claim much of a victory. 

There has to be an option of revoking Article 50 and putting the whole thing in abeyance for at least 5 years.

[Donathan]

What realistically happens next? 
No Deal will be voted down/against (Chan eil lingo agam)
And I imagine extended a50 will not pass. 
Surely it's time for a UK election. 

No deal will be voted down, but the vote on extending A50 will almost certainly pass, given that should it also fail, we’ll revert back to no deal. One thing that that almost the entire parliament agrees on (Barring the DUP and the most right wing handful of Tory MPs) is that no deal would be a disaster, so when all other options are exhausted they’ll vote to extend A50 to buy more time.

The EU will accept an extension in order to prevent no deal.

I’d imagine May will have one more go at putting through something with the parameters of this deal through parliament and if it fails then her options would probably be one of the following:

1. Abandon the deal completely and pursue a much softer Brexit with Labour onside. EU would agree to this but there’s the risk of losing the support of some of her own MPs.

2. Call a General Election and hope to achieve a majority government, giving her a mandate to push on with something similar to her own deal. She would still have the problem of getting it through parliament with the Tory rebels but the ERG might back down if voters back May in a GE. If Corbyn gets in then a much softer Brexit can be pursued.

3. Ask parliament to back her deal but contingent on it being approved by the people in a referendum, with the alternative being a revocation or article 50 should it be rejected. This likely leads to Labour, SNP, TIG, Lib Dems, Plaid Cymru and the Greens all supporting

[O'Kelly Isley III]

You should start listening to the Today programme instead of just looking at the headlines on the website.

Holy f**k, here we are again this morning with the deep-thinking folk of Bolton making a bold and blindly simplistic bid for the title of Brexit Central. Nine people interviewed and broadcast by Jane McCubbin and every one a rabid Brexiteer.

Then cut to Brexitdorm for another dollop of spittle-flecked bile..... not an alternative viewpoint anywhere, WTF is going on at BBC television ?

[Granny Danger]

The scale of last night’s defeat is significant.  If May offers her deal a third time, and that can’t be ruled out if the EU27 are perceived as being difficult over an extension, then it is likely that it would still be defeated.

A two month extension achieves nothing; the only thing that could happen in that timescale is Parliament agreeing to revoke Article 50 and that is unlikely.  I hope the EU refuse to grant any extension without a clear plan being offered.

[O'Kelly Isley III]

41 minutes ago, Granny Danger said:

The scale of last night’s defeat is significant.  If May offers her deal a third time, and that can’t be ruled out if the EU27 are perceived as being difficult over an extension, then it is likely that it would still be defeated.

A two month extension achieves nothing; the only thing that could happen in that timescale is Parliament agreeing to revoke Article 50 and that is unlikely.  I hope the EU refuse to grant any extension without a clear plan being offered.

Whilst I agree entirely, the danger with that is that it feeds in further to the narrative already being successfully peddled that the current maelstrom is due to the EU's intransigence and unreasonable behaviour.  At the very least the EU should ensure that there are no maverick comments or suggestions which can be seized upon, and they present the case for an orderly outcome in a calm and reasoned manner.

Having said that, I listened last night to the DUP still suggesting that, contrary to all evidence, an alternative deal can still be won - bampots, one and all.

[Granny Danger]

So no checks on Irish border for (I think) 12 months if No Deal.  Except, of course, for the checks that will take place!

I thought Brexit was about taking control of our borders.  I assume there must be potential for abuse of this situation.

Also under No Deal most tariffs to be slashed which is great news except where it isn’t and where it could lead to British businesses going bust.  

At least these businesses have 18 days to prepare.

 

Edited March 13, 2019 by Granny Danger

[Monkey Tennis]

9 hours ago, O'Kelly Isley III said:

Can anyone explain why the BBC is now producing vox pops with woefully ill-educated members of the great British public on a daily basis ?

I'm torn on this.

I do find it infuriating, largely because I don't watch the news in order to hear from people who are less intelligent and informed than I already am, myself.

Given that the current position was reached by asking everyone what they wanted though, asking people what they now think can be seen as legitimate enough. 

It is lazy and it is maddening, but I think the scary thing is what it reflects: The reason that it's difficult to find people who favour leaving, and can articulate coherent arguments why, is because doing so is difficult too.  What we're left with is this resilient 'Little Englander' feeling, that seems pretty alien to us, but is an alarmingly widespread phenomenon.

Edited March 13, 2019 by Monkey Tennis

[Detournement]

It's an easy way to influence public opinion by TV. Interview people until you get the opinions you want then when you broadcast it looks a random sample of the population rather than an editorial line.

People need to remember that No Deal is still on the table after today. This vote is about going straight to No Deal.

[Paco]

If an option to Remain is a complete affront to democracy, can we have at least vote on a Customs Union or May’s deal? May’s deal is the position of the government, so there’s no reason for No Deal to be included.

Unless May shows a completely unprecedented desire to work cross-party, it’s No Deal at the hands of the EU, meaning Little Englanders won’t even get the ‘upper hand’ of telling them to ram it, or a small extension because May refuses to ask for longer. And what will she do with that? We all know the answer - exactly what she’s done for the past few months.

Predictions are a mugs game in all of this but I really do see it being either No Deal because the nasty EU won’t let us extend, or May’s deal purely to avoid No Deal.

[Granny Danger]

It’s being reported that May will vote against No Deal.

 

[Detournement]

Aye because she's going for a cliff edge third time lucky.

[Bairnardo]

If an option to Remain is a complete affront to democracy, can we have at least vote on a Customs Union or May’s deal? May’s deal is the position of the government, so there’s no reason for No Deal to be included.

Unless May shows a completely unprecedented desire to work cross-party, it’s No Deal at the hands of the EU, meaning Little Englanders won’t even get the ‘upper hand’ of telling them to ram it, or a small extension because May refuses to ask for longer. And what will she do with that? We all know the answer - exactly what she’s done for the past few months.

Predictions are a mugs game in all of this but I really do see it being either No Deal because the nasty EU won’t let us extend, or May’s deal purely to avoid No Deal.

Its a dangerous game but the right people know the damage no deal will do surely. It might take the EU putting all their chips on the table to ever actually get a second referendum. That way the shitehawks claiming they need to respect the vote above all else can blame the EU for the fact that there needs to be a second referendum.

[Inanimate Carbon Rod]

No deal will be voted down, but the vote on extending A50 will almost certainly pass, given that should it also fail, we’ll revert back to no deal. One thing that that almost the entire parliament agrees on (Barring the DUP and the most right wing handful of Tory MPs) is that no deal would be a disaster, so when all other options are exhausted they’ll vote to extend A50 to buy more time.

The EU will accept an extension in order to prevent no deal.

I’d imagine May will have one more go at putting through something with the parameters of this deal through parliament and if it fails then her options would probably be one of the following:

1. Abandon the deal completely and pursue a much softer Brexit with Labour onside. EU would agree to this but there’s the risk of losing the support of some of her own MPs.

2. Call a General Election and hope to achieve a majority government, giving her a mandate to push on with something similar to her own deal. She would still have the problem of getting it through parliament with the Tory rebels but the ERG might back down if voters back May in a GE. If Corbyn gets in then a much softer Brexit can be pursued.

3. Ask parliament to back her deal but contingent on it being approved by the people in a referendum, with the alternative being a revocation or article 50 should it be rejected. This likely leads to Labour, SNP, TIG, Lib Dems, Plaid Cymru and the Greens all supporting

One slight issue with step 2, there is no chance of Corbyn being elected.

[Donathan]

3 minutes ago, Inanimate Carbon Rod said:

One slight issue with step 2, there is no chance of Corbyn being elected.

 

"Step 2" is May calling a GE to try and get a majority in, so if you reckon there's no chance of Labour getting in then that would actually mean step 2 is even more likely.

[Ross.]

8 hours ago, jupe1407 said:

It doesn't really matter which brand of Tory wins a GE, we're still in the same situation effectively. 

IMO the only thing approaching putting this shite to bed would be a 2nd referendum, and even then you'd need either wide to win very convincingly. The absolute #scenes though if Remain won 50.5 to 49.5 thanks to an overwhelming Remain vote in Scotland. Fantasy stuff of course but it would be fucking glorious. 

Long believed that Scotland will only become independent when the English public tell us to f*ck off. This scenario would absolutely expedite that happening. So yeah, another referendum please...