Brexit slowly becoming a Farce.

[kirkyblue2]

7 minutes ago, renton said:

Even if it means no Scottish independence, ever? You are in the minority of your movement, you are not going to win over enough converts in the SNP to make leaving both Unions the primary outcome in one go. You do have enough heft to lose us another indy ref by taking the cream puff over Europe. Your best bet of arranging the situation to your liking is to leave the UK now while there is a pro indy majority and a causus belli for activating a referendum, and worry about Europe later, when post Indy you and what becomes of the Tories can make common cause. Grabbing at leaving the EU now at the cost of Scottish independence leaves the major road block to Scottish decision making in place.

The member states can have a referendum anytime they like, and present an article 50 letter - indeed they don't have to have a referendum, the government of the day just has to decide it's leaving. It's much, much harder for Scotland to leave the UK, as might be expected from the difference between a federal trading block and a unitary political state. Scotland must elect a pro Indy majority, must rely on the good graces of the UK to accept a referendum, and then win it against overt UK politicking on a scale that that EU never pursued in the Brexit referendum. Then the Uk has to accept a result it might not like.

The question is how to solve wanting independence without being part of the EU. This is going to be the main crux of indyref2 imo.

[Antlion]

5 minutes ago, kirkyblue2 said:

The question is how to solve wanting independence without being part of the EU. This is going to be the main crux of indyref2 imo.

Doesn't sound too great a problem. Independent countries have the power to make decisions on supranational unions like the EU. No one who wants Scotland to be an independent country can object to having the power to make decisions that independence allows the nation to make. That's kind of the point of being an independent country.

"I want independence but I actually want England and Wales to choose Scotland's future if their populations agree with my personal viewpoint" is not a position, it's a contradiction.

Edited April 5, 2017 by Antlion

[Wee Willie]

12 minutes ago, renton said:

Even if it means no Scottish independence, ever? You are in the minority of your movement, you are not going to win over enough converts in the SNP to make leaving both Unions the primary outcome in one go. You do have enough heft to lose us another indy ref by taking the cream puff over Europe. Your best bet of arranging the situation to your liking is to leave the UK now while there is a pro indy majority and a causus belli for activating a referendum, and worry about Europe later, when post Indy you and what becomes of the Tories can make common cause. Grabbing at leaving the EU now at the cost of Scottish independence leaves the major road block to Scottish decision making in place.

The member states can have a referendum anytime they like, and present an article 50 letter - indeed they don't have to have a referendum, the government of the day just has to decide it's leaving. It's much, much harder for Scotland to leave the UK, as might be expected from the difference between a federal trading block and a unitary political state. Scotland must elect a pro Indy majority, must rely on the good graces of the UK to accept a referendum, and then win it against overt UK politicking on a scale that that EU never pursued in the Brexit referendum. Then the Uk has to accept a result it might not like.

guid post
As I've said often enough - one step at a time.
Indy first then Trident/EU/NATO et al to be decided.

[Anonapersona]

3 minutes ago, kirkyblue2 said:

The question is how to solve wanting independence without being part of the EU. This is going to be the main crux of indyref2 imo.

But this goes back to the question I asked earlier.

Would you be willing to stick with being in the EU (doesn't matter when) rather than stick with being in the UK?

[renton]

2 minutes ago, kirkyblue2 said:

The question is how to solve wanting independence without being part of the EU. This is going to be the main crux of indyref2 imo.

It depends on priorities. Right now you will never generate enough Eurosceptics on the Indy side of the constitutional debate to make that policy. On the other hand leaving the EU as part of the UK puts any chance of a medium term Indy ref at risk. However, if the Eurosceptic Indy supporters swallow Europe now, then post independence they could find enough common ground with the avowedly Eurosceptic Tories to form a pretty credible movement in terms of numbers.

[NotThePars]

I see Bishop Briggs is ignoring the existence of realpolitik again. Completely dishonest.

[Chapelhall chap]

31 minutes ago, philyerboots said:

So 1,661,191  is the vast majority of 5 million .  Guess its the SNP calculator in action.

The electoral register of course barred 16/17 year olds from voting and Non Irish EU Citizens, as well all those under 16s who have now had their potential EU Citizenship removed as a future . That might be a majority of the 5 million?

[Bishop Briggs]

26 minutes ago, Colkitto said:

Can you tell me what polling companies he uses so I can verify if they are indeed members of the BPC?  

Ashcroft does not publicly state which companies that he uses. He sacked at least one company that he used for constituency polling before the last election.

The BPC says that "Lord Ashcroft Polls does not have the ability to conduct its own fieldwork and thus sub-contracts this part of its polling to a number of companies, many of them BPC members."

I have always used several BPC members for political polling. Their standards of performance and professionalism vary considerably. BPC membership is no guarantor of quality.

ETA - I am not aware of reputable companies who are not BPC members. I am not aware of Ashcroft using non-BPC members either. The BPC does seem to be miffed that Ashcroft Polls is not a BPC member.

Edited April 5, 2017 by Bishop Briggs

[Bishop Briggs]

2 minutes ago, NotThePars said:

I see Bishop Briggs is ignoring the existence of realpolitik again. Completely dishonest.

I see that you continue to ignore the EU Treaties and the application process for Membership. 

Completely dishonest or head in the sand as usual?

[kirkyblue2]

4 minutes ago, Anonapersona said:

But this goes back to the question I asked earlier.

Would you be willing to stick with being in the EU (doesn't matter when) rather than stick with being in the UK?

I will need to see what deal we get.

[NotThePars]

I see that you continue to ignore the EU Treaties and the application process for Membership. 
Completely dishonest or head in the sand as usual?

I'm sure you, at one point, argued there was a literal queue for membership that meant one state couldn't advance quicker than the other into the EU. You're completely dishonest and or a liar if it suits your anti-EU agenda. That's apparent from your entire time on this forum.

[williemillersmoustache]

2 minutes ago, Bishop Briggs said:

Ashcroft does not publicly state which companies that he uses. He sacked at least one company that he used for constituency polling before the last election.

The BPC says that "Lord Ashcroft Polls does not have the ability to conduct its own fieldwork and thus sub-contracts this part of its polling to a number of companies, many of them BPC members."

I have always used several BPC members for political polling. Their standards of performance and professionalism vary considerably. BPC membership is no guarantor of quality.

So it could well be just numbers plucked straight out of thin air.

Thanks for clearing that up.

Away with you and your pish.

[Bishop Briggs]

2 hours ago, NotThePars said:

I'm sure you, at one point, argued there was a literal queue for membership that meant one state couldn't advance quicker than the other into the EU. You're completely dishonest and or a liar if it suits your anti-EU agenda. That's apparent from your entire time on this forum.

 

 

There is a "queue" for membership as several countries have already started the application process. The EU Commission has limited resources and existing applicants take priority. I also said, however, that some countries can close certain chapters of the acquis than others and thereby "move up" the queue.

Without an independent currency and central bank, an independent Scotland could not complete the application process. There are chapters that would take a long time to close. That's why Single Market/EEA membership, the Norwegian model, is a more realistic option.

It's the EUphiles who are completely dishonest about Scotland being to join to the EU almost immediately.

Edited April 5, 2017 by Bishop Briggs
Spell checker misbehaving again.

[NotThePars]

There is a "queue" for membership as several countries have already started the application process. The EU Commission has limited resources and existing applicants take priority. I also said, however, that some countries can close certain chapters of the acquis than others and thereby "move up" the queue.
Without an independent currency and central bank, an independent Scotland could not complete the application process. There are chapters that would take a long time to close. That's why Single Market/EEA membership, the Norwegian model, is a more relative option.
It's the EUphiles who are completely dishonest about Scotland being to join to the EU almost immediately.

You spent ages saying the former without adding the latter about states moving up the queue until you were repeatedly called out on it being nonsense. You may be able to post heaps and heaps of stuff to suit your own agenda but you've been proven to selectively choose whichever evidence suits your argument which is why literally nobody believes a word you say.

[Bishop Briggs]

9 minutes ago, williemillersmoustache said:

So it could well be just numbers plucked straight out of thin air.

Thanks for clearing that up.

Away with you and your pish.

Bollocks! It's a huge poll with detailed tables of results.

You just can't accept that around a third of SNP voters also voted for Brexit, i.e. real independence and self-government.

Everyone must toe the SNP party line even if they disagree with it,

How sad and pathetic!

[Colkitto]

20 minutes ago, Bishop Briggs said:

Ashcroft does not publicly state which companies that he uses. He sacked at least one company that he used for constituency polling before the last election.

The BPC says that "Lord Ashcroft Polls does not have the ability to conduct its own fieldwork and thus sub-contracts this part of its polling to a number of companies, many of them BPC members."

I have always used several BPC members for political polling. Their standards of performance and professionalism vary considerably. BPC membership is no guarantor of quality.

ETA - I am not aware of reputable companies who are not BPC members. I am not aware of Ashcroft using non-BPC members either. The BPC does seem to be miffed that Ashcroft Polls is not a BPC member.

Seems strange he won't name them to verify the polling companies with the BPC. I'm sceptical I have to say...

[Bishop Briggs]

Just now, NotThePars said:

 

You spent ages saying the former without adding the latter about states moving up the queue until you were repeatedly called out on it being nonsense. You may be able to post heaps and heaps of stuff to suit your own agenda but you've been proven to selectively choose whichever evidence suits your argument which is why literally nobody believes a word you say.

 

Isn't it obvious that some countries can complete the chapters of acquis quicker than others? 

The real problem is that you and others try to pretend that the application process can be circumvented by "real politik".

Another issue is the impact of the independence divorce deal on the EU membership application.

 

[williemillersmoustache]

 

8 minutes ago, Bishop Briggs said:

Bollocks! It's a huge poll with detailed tables of results.

You just can't accept that around a third of SNP voters also voted for Brexit, i.e. real independence and self-government.

Everyone must toe the SNP party line even if they disagree with it,

How sad and pathetic!

Oh well if there are tables, then it must be cast Iron. Why didn't you say??

If you could just furnish me with a pie chart and a crayon drawing of a bumblebee too, then your slavering would be untouchable.

To be semi serious for a moment, you are taking one poll, or one report from polls to be gospel, incontrovertible fact. I think that is dangerous and perhaps indicative of a closed, or even weak mind. But it says what you want it to say so you'll defend it to the death, despite the origins of the data and the compiler (Lord Ashcroft) being either hidden or in his Lordships case, not without conflicts if interest.

So f**k off you mad, fooling nobody, unionist twat. 

[welshbairn]

Will no one rid us of this tiresome priest?

[Bishop Briggs]

Just now, Colkitto said:

Seems strange he won't name them to verify the polling companies with the BPC. I'm sceptical I have to say...

The BPC itself says that many of the companies that uses are BPC members. There are reputable polling and market research companies that are not BPC members. The BPC is a trade association, not a regulatory body. As I said before, the standards vary considerably.