Polling: 2017 General Election, Council Elections and Independence

[vikingTON]

49 minutes ago, Baxter Parp said:

What makes you think an additional 10 Greens and an Alba will do it?

I'm not the one setting an SNP majority as the benchmark for anything champ. Other than to ram through domestic policy without much scrutiny or any horse-trading, it's meaningless. They'll sweep the majority of seats and there's no doubt who the First Minister will be, which is fine. 

A pro-independence majority that surges to 80+ seats out of 129 will be another shoeing to Unionism as a political movement in Scotland though. That's how you make independence inevitable - not least given that a second referendum is already being kicked into the long grass by Sturgeon herself. 

Edited May 5, 2021 by vikingTON

[Caledonian1]

2 hours ago, doulikefish said:

Can't believe we haven't had a Russian jet fight story this election 

I was sure there was one...and yes only 5 weeks ago

RAF jets from Lossiemouth intercept Russian planes near UK airspace - BBC News

[vikingTON]

5 minutes ago, Stormzy said:

You've probably posted before but forgive me because I've not seen it if you have, do you have an alternative strategy to what the SNP have on offer right now? 

The SNP should be running on a more powers to Holyrood platform in every single campaign until all they have to do is change the letterhead to be independent. That's how the Irish Free State became a genuinely independent Republic of Ireland. 

Given that Sturgeon is clinging on a non-existent polling supermajority before calling a second referendum anyway - and is also now huddling behind the pandemic as well - it's about time that they stopped the unsustainable pretence. Take what incremental progress you can get if you have no serious interest in 'gambling' on a second vote. 

Edited May 5, 2021 by vikingTON

[BigDoddyKane]

6 minutes ago, virginton said:

The SNP should be running on a more powers to Holyrood platform in every single campaign until all they have to do is change the letterhead to be independent. That's how the Irish Free State became a genuinely independent Republic of Ireland. 

Given that Sturgeon is clinging on a non-existent polling supermajority before calling a second referendum anyway - and is also now huddling behind the pandemic as well - it's about time that they stopped the unsustainable pretence. Take what incremental progress you can get if you have no serious interest in 'gambling' on a second vote. 

I've thought that as well, you grab all the powers you can get bit by bit and use them well till its such a small step no one has a second thought about taking it, at least do that in parallel to other options

Edited May 5, 2021 by BigDoddyKane

[Baxter Parp]

12 minutes ago, virginton said:

I'm not the one setting an SNP majority as the benchmark for anything champ

Well, there you go again, I didn't set any benchmarks either, champ, I posted what I observed on the telly. You really can't help but put words in other people's mouths can you?

12 minutes ago, virginton said:

That's how you make independence inevitable

That'll be why the MSM are saying it's vital for the SNP to get a majority in order to get a referendum, then.

12 minutes ago, virginton said:

a second referendum is already being kicked into the long grass by Sturgeon herself. 

"The Scottish government has not given a specific date, but says it wants a referendum to be held in the first half of the next parliamentary term."

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-50813510

Hope this helps.

Edited May 5, 2021 by Baxter Parp

[vikingTON]

2 minutes ago, Baxter Parp said:

Well, there you go again, I didn't set any benchmarks either, champ, I posted what I observed on the telly. You really can't help but put words in other people's mouths can you?

Last time I checked, 'what people said on the telly' wasn't the sovereign legal voice of Scotland. 

Quote

That'll be why the MSM are saying it's vital for the SNP to get a majority in order to get a referendum, then.

The MSM can say whatever they want. The onus is on the elected representatives representing the majority of the people of Scotland to prove otherwise.

The media that you hate are suddenly setting a deliberately high bar in an election to see if the SNP will fail to hit it and then Johnson will do nothing regardless. What are 68 SNP voices going to do about it that 80 pro-independence ones cannot? 

Be extremely specific. 

Quote

 

"The Scottish government has not given a specific date, but says it wants a referendum to be held in the first half of the next parliamentary term."

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-50813510

Hope this helps.

 

I'm really not sure why you think that setting no specific date in a manifesto commitment would help with anything. When was the council tax abolished again?

Unless the ducks are neatly lined up for Sturgeon to launch a no-lose campaign before the halfway point of the next Parliament then they won't go through with it. 

[Baxter Parp]

1 minute ago, virginton said:

Last time I checked, 'what people said on the telly' wasn't the sovereign legal voice of Scotland. 

Last time, I checked I never said it was.  f**k sake, I should have blocked you back on the Dundee admin thread.

[Crùbag]

Would like to see win: Roza Salih, Graham Campbell, Lorna Slater.

Would like to turfed out/lose: Alex Cole-Hamilton, Jackie Baillie, Alex Salmond, George Galloway, Dross.

This:

[GordonS]

2 hours ago, Salt n Vinegar said:

Anyone know when the last opinion poll is going to come out? There's time yet, surely?

No, that's all the polls reported.

[Granny Danger]

11 minutes ago, GordonS said:

No, that's all the polls reported.

Big one tomorrow!

[scottsdad]

Imagine pro independence parties win a majority of seats, even a comfortable majority. Now imagine that votes for pro union parties marginally outnumber those for pro independence parties, like 2016.

Guess what rationale the unionists will use to deny a legal referendum. 

[G51]

Imagine being the Daily Records editor, deciding to take a position for tomorrow's Scottish election... and deciding that the position should be "Vote SNP or Labour, whoever you want really"

Just incredible.

[eez-eh]

18 minutes ago, Crùbag said:

Would like to see win: Roza Salih, Graham Campbell, Lorna Slater.

Would like to turfed out/lose: Alex Cole-Hamilton, Jackie Baillie, Alex Salmond, George Galloway, Dross.

This:

Seen quite a few comments saying that Indy supporters in South Scotland should vote SNP on the list like it’s a sure thing but I don’t think it’s anywhere near as clear cut.

Last election the Greens were nearly as close to getting a first list seat as the SNP were a fourth. Greens got 14,773 list votes; SNP got 120,217 - divide that by their 7 seats in the region plus 1 and you get 15,027.

Add in the fact that the SNP have a realistic shot at gaining Ayr (700 votes in it in 2016), plus there’s another few constituencies in the area where they only lost out by a little over 1,000 votes. Gain any of them and it makes it harder for them to pick up list votes. A Green vote on the list there isn’t the wasted vote many are trying to frame it as.

[DeeTillEhDeh]

Seen quite a few comments saying that Indy supporters in South Scotland should vote SNP on the list like it’s a sure thing but I don’t think it’s anywhere near as clear cut.
Last election the Greens were nearly as close to getting a first list seat as the SNP were a fourth. Greens got 14,773 list votes; SNP got 120,217 - divide that by their 7 seats in the region plus 1 and you get 15,027.
Add in the fact that the SNP have a realistic shot at gaining Ayr (700 votes in it in 2016), plus there’s another few constituencies in the area where they only lost out by a little over 1,000 votes. Gain any of them and it makes it harder for them to pick up list votes. A Green vote on the list there isn’t the wasted vote many are trying to frame it as.

Trying to game South of Scotland is perilous - yes the SNP could take seats there but equally they could end up gaining nothing there - it's that close.

[mizfit]

All I want is Jim Fairlie to win Perthshire south and Jackie Bailie to be sacked.

[vikingTON]

9 minutes ago, scottsdad said:

Imagine pro independence parties win a majority of seats, even a comfortable majority. Now imagine that votes for pro union parties marginally outnumber those for pro independence parties, like 2016.

Guess what rationale the unionists will use to deny a legal referendum. 

Unionists will use whatever rationale they think will best mask their pumping. Since when exactly did the pro-independence camp decide to cede the right to set the terms of debate to Willie fucking Rennie and co.? 

This is utterly laughable stuff. 

[eez-eh]

3 minutes ago, DeeTillEhDeh said:

Trying to game South of Scotland is perilous - yes the SNP could take seats there but equally they could end up gaining nothing there - it's that close.
 

Aye it’s absolutely unpredictable. Just not buying the line that voting Green on the list there is a wasted vote.

[Chapelhall chap]

9 minutes ago, scottsdad said:

Imagine pro independence parties win a majority of seats, even a comfortable majority. Now imagine that votes for pro union parties marginally outnumber those for pro independence parties, like 2016.

Guess what rationale the unionists will use to deny a legal referendum. 

One of my Pro UK friends has said exactly that to me, that a majority of seats does not justify Indy 2, so here we go again. I suspect that even if there were a Pro Indy%  the British Nationalists will take the non voters as their backers. a la George Cunningham and Galloway.

[vikingTON]

11 minutes ago, eez-eh said:

Seen quite a few comments saying that Indy supporters in South Scotland should vote SNP on the list like it’s a sure thing but I don’t think it’s anywhere near as clear cut.

Last election the Greens were nearly as close to getting a first list seat as the SNP were a fourth. Greens got 14,773 list votes; SNP got 120,217 - divide that by their 7 seats in the region plus 1 and you get 15,027.

Add in the fact that the SNP have a realistic shot at gaining Ayr (700 votes in it in 2016), plus there’s another few constituencies in the area where they only lost out by a little over 1,000 votes. Gain any of them and it makes it harder for them to pick up list votes. A Green vote on the list there isn’t the wasted vote many are trying to frame it as.

The SNP probably won't win an extra seat in the South but they could lose one overall if the list votes are split inefficiently. The Greens got 4.7% in the South so weren't particularly close to gaining a seat last time round.

You could maybe take a punt on the Greens going up to 6-7% and having a half decent chance but the best tactical choice is both votes SNP in that region. 

[Granny Danger]

50 minutes ago, scottsdad said:

Imagine pro independence parties win a majority of seats, even a comfortable majority. Now imagine that votes for pro union parties marginally outnumber those for pro independence parties, like 2016.

Guess what rationale the unionists will use to deny a legal referendum. 

I’m sure Johnson will feel the lack of a majority is not an impediment. Particularly as he’s Prime Minister with an 80 majority on only 43.6% of the votes cast.