The Ultimate Super Ayr Thread

[D'Jaffo]

Surely Ayr have to look to sell Shankland in Jan.Get say £100,000 to £150,000 for him.Would Ayr not lose Shankland for nothing in the summer 

Most sensible Ayr fans would rather lose him for nothing in the summer than cash in on him in January.

He’s in no rush to leave and he’s smart enough to know he’ll get a good signing on fee in the summer from whatever team comes out on top in the battle to sign him.

[Skyline Drifter]

26 minutes ago, ayrunitedfw said:

Pretty sure the prize money we’d make from keeping Shankland and winning the league would equate to more than £150,000. Sell Shankland and we won’t win the league, it’s that simple. 

All things are relative. If Shankland is singularly the difference between you finishing say 1st and 2nd then he's worth directly about £90,000 although there's also the further benefits from next year's Premiership campaign where the bottom place would get you £1m at least.

If you assume you don't get promoted and he's the difference between 2nd and 3rd he's probably worth about £80k. If he's the difference between 2nd and 4th then he's worth £160k, etc. Outside the playoff spots the marginal differences in position prize money are smaller. It's a gamble. You don't sell him and he gets injured, you've not got the cash and he's not playing anyway.  You sell him for £100k+ and it ultimately costs you one place then you're better off doing it.

It's nowhere near as simple a judgement as is made out to be and inevitably money in the bank is difficult to turn down compared to prospect that he "might" be the difference between getting a wee bit more three or four months down the line. It would inevitably depend on how much you need the cash and how bullish your Board are. I would guess they aren't desperate for it now if they turned it down in August so unless it involved a sale and loan back a la Lewis Morgan, I can't really see why they would sell. Also, if you do finish in a playoff slot your chances of actually getting promoted will be much higher with him playing than without him.

All that said, as others have also said, I'm far from convinced anyone is going to offer six figures for a player they can get for nothing in 6 months if he signs a pre-contract anyway. You probably missed the chance to sell him for really good money when you turned it down in August. To get another similar offer now you need an English side with money to burn who are desperate to get a player now (so not one who will lend back) or a big side who see him as a project and are happy to shell out now to ensure they aren't gazumped in the summer which is what Celtic did with Morgan. That's less likely though at his age. Morgan would have cost Celtic a fee under freedom of contract anyway due to his age so what they did made more sense with him. Shankland will be free in the summer.

[1nickydevlin]

Tbh we are more than just a one man team.

[ayrmad]

On 05/11/2018 at 18:01, Skyline Drifter said:

All things are relative. If Shankland is singularly the difference between you finishing say 1st and 2nd then he's worth directly about £90,000 although there's also the further benefits from next year's Premiership campaign where the bottom place would get you £1m at least.

If you assume you don't get promoted and he's the difference between 2nd and 3rd he's probably worth about £80k. If he's the difference between 2nd and 4th then he's worth £160k, etc. Outside the playoff spots the marginal differences in position prize money are smaller. It's a gamble. You don't sell him and he gets injured, you've not got the cash and he's not playing anyway.  You sell him for £100k+ and it ultimately costs you one place then you're better off doing it.

It's nowhere near as simple a judgement as is made out to be and inevitably money in the bank is difficult to turn down compared to prospect that he "might" be the difference between getting a wee bit more three or four months down the line. It would inevitably depend on how much you need the cash and how bullish your Board are. I would guess they aren't desperate for it now if they turned it down in August so unless it involved a sale and loan back a la Lewis Morgan, I can't really see why they would sell. Also, if you do finish in a playoff slot your chances of actually getting promoted will be much higher with him playing than without him.

All that said, as others have also said, I'm far from convinced anyone is going to offer six figures for a player they can get for nothing in 6 months if he signs a pre-contract anyway. You probably missed the chance to sell him for really good money when you turned it down in August. To get another similar offer now you need an English side with money to burn who are desperate to get a player now (so not one who will lend back) or a big side who see him as a project and are happy to shell out now to ensure they aren't gazumped in the summer which is what Celtic did with Morgan. That's less likely though at his age. Morgan would have cost Celtic a fee under freedom of contract anyway due to his age so what they did made more sense with him. Shankland will be free in the summer.

All that fails to realise the negative effects on our fanbase if we'd punted him in the summer.

Getting him to re-sign and then knocking back offers later on in the summer are probably 2 of the best decisions made during Lachlan' stewardship.

Edited November 6, 2018 by ayrmad

[Skyline Drifter]

5 minutes ago, ayrmad said:

All that fails to realise the negative effects on our fanbase if we'd punted him in the summer.

Getting him to re-sign and then knocking back offers layer on in the summer are probably 2 of the best decisions made during Lachlan' stewardship.

Well no, it doesn't "fail to realise" that as I didn't address it at all. I'm discussing whether there's any likelihood of him going in January and giving reasons why it's unlikely on balance. I made no comment on whether you should have sold him in the summer.

[ayrmad]

1 minute ago, Skyline Drifter said:

Well no, it doesn't "fail to realise" that as I didn't address it at all. I'm discussing whether there's any likelihood of him going in January and giving reasons why it's unlikely on balance. I made no comment on whether you should have sold him in the summer.

Your numbers take no account of revenue lost due to lower crowd numbers this season and into the future.

[rb123!]

I expect Shankland to stay to the end of the season and it's just a question of whether he signs a pre-contract with anyone in January, would be surprised if he didn't.

[Skyline Drifter]

47 minutes ago, ayrmad said:

Your numbers take no account of revenue lost due to lower crowd numbers this season and into the future.

Due to selling Shankland in January?

Well no, they dont. But that would only improve the point I made which was that its pretty unlikely to happen. As I said, if Ayr's Board were going to sell Shankland then they would have done so in August. Given they didn't and things have only gotten better since, it would presumably take a frankly ludicrous offer of £200k+ to make them sell now. Its very, very unlikely anyone is going to make such an offer for a player available free on a pre contract.

[forzapars]

Hi guys,

I’ve got my own wee YouTube channel and have just uploaded a video chatting about Ayr United and if they can replicate what Livingston did in the last few seasons (back-to-back promotions).

Give it a watch if you like, also feel free to subscribe to my channel. Regular football videos over there [emoji1360]

Link:

[AyrTroopMajor]

Said it before and I'll say it again, if you would prefer to see the club cash in on Shankland in the summer, then there is pretty much zero point in you being a football fan.

I want to see Ayr playing at the top level. I am at an age where I have not seen Ayr in the top division in my lifetime and to get to the top level, we need to be keeping our best players to give ourselves the best possible chance. Putting cash ahead of on-field success is the diddiest of diddy mentalities and I just can't get my head around it.

 

[juventus]

[AYRSHIRE_ANGUS]

"Ayr will sell these to Ayr fans." Well that's a relief

[bunglebonce]

16 hours ago, Skyline Drifter said:

All that said, as others have also said, I'm far from convinced anyone is going to offer six figures for a player they can get for nothing in 6 months if he signs a pre-contract anyway. You probably missed the chance to sell him for really good money when you turned it down in August. To get another similar offer now you need an English side with money to burn who are desperate to get a player now (so not one who will lend back) or a big side who see him as a project and are happy to shell out now to ensure they aren't gazumped in the summer which is what Celtic did with Morgan. That's less likely though at his age. Morgan would have cost Celtic a fee under freedom of contract anyway due to his age so what they did made more sense with him. Shankland will be free in the summer.

Shankland being free in the summer as you say is the big distinction from Morgan's transfer.  If Shankland signs a pre-contract with a club then the same club have a strong negotiating position to lower the price if they want to buy the transfer in January.

eg. One of the very few quality signings Jim McIntyre made at Ross County was getting Jason Naismith to sign a PCA in Jan' 16 to arrive at the club in June '16.  County bought him in January in the end, he hit the ground running and his form was flying from the beginning of the next season.

I'd agree that I can't see Ayr selling him, even if it is likely that Shankland signs a PCA with someone.  However there are risks with keeping a player who has already committed to another club after January.  I remember Simon Murray having a great start to '14-15 with Arbroath, scoring 12 in 8 matches before a sale and loan-back from Dundee United in Jan '15.  He then scored one goal in 13 afterwards and Arbroath's form nosedived.

On the flipside, Michael Gardyne signed a PCA to Dundee United in '11-12.  Derek Adams dropped him, Gardyne was raging and went on to finish the season with 9 goals in 13 (which wasn't bad since Colin McMenamin was the number 9). 

I hope Ayr keep him.  It's been a belter of a season so far and his quality is a good thing for the league.

Edited November 6, 2018 by bunglebonce

[rb123!]

Think they're being a bit optimistic with us taking 1,000 tbh but you never know I might be wrong

[AyrTroopMajor]

See no reason whatsoever why we wouldn't sell 1,000 for this. We have over 1000 ST holders, we took near enough 1000 to Thistle, which is further away, and Beith is a new ground that I don't imagine many have ever visited before, nor will they ever again.

Added to that, we are absolutely f***ing dynamite.

[AYRSHIRE_ANGUS]

"Drinking in the Garnock Valley and getting out alive" is one to tick off my bucket list. Can't wait. Hopefully they'll be selling tickets on Saturday.

[Guest]

4 hours ago, AYRSHIRE_ANGUS said:

"Drinking in the Garnock Valley and getting out alive" is one to tick off my bucket list. Can't wait. Hopefully they'll be selling tickets on Saturday.

For those travelling by Train, Glengarnock station is where you get off and the Glendale arms (next to the station) will be open around 10.55am.

It's then just over a 5 min bus journey to the park via the #25 local service which stops right outside the pub. Glengarnock is technically Kilbirnie and is still "safe" territory.

Alternatively there are a couple of pubs in Beith itself and the Saracens Head (known locally as the Sarry) has an early licence as confirmed by Juventus and will undoubtedly be a lot of fun !!

Being a Kilbirnie boy, I and my compadres will be starting off in the Glendale before heading across the border to the bandit country that is Beith.

[AYRSHIRE_ANGUS]

44 minutes ago, WATTOO said:

For those travelling by Train, Glengarnock station is where you get off and the Glendale arms (next to the station) will be open around 10.55am.

It's then just over a 5 min bus journey to the park via the #25 local service which stops right outside the pub. Glengarnock is technically Kilbirnie and is still "safe" territory.

Alternatively there are a couple of pubs in Beith itself and the Saracens Head (known locally as the Sarry) has an early licence as confirmed by Juventus and will undoubtedly be a lot of fun !!

Being a Kilbirnie boy, I and my compadres will be starting off in the Glendale before heading across the border to the bandit country that is Beith.

Thats my plan too, train to the pub at Glengarnock station then X25. Hoping the bus is reasonably big if a few of us have the same idea!

[Guest]

16 hours ago, AYRSHIRE_ANGUS said:

Thats my plan too, train to the pub at Glengarnock station then X25. Hoping the bus is reasonably big if a few of us have the same idea!

There's quite a few buses on that route, there's the X34 & X36 Ardrossan to Glasgow buses which are usually Double Deckers, then you have the 904 McGills bus to Paisley and the X25 local bus. It's only 5 mins and if you're in the pub then the guys know all the bus times in there. Worst case scenario it should be easy enough to get a taxi which will actually be cheaper if there's 3 or 4.

[Mgc1910]

On 06/11/2018 at 11:08, rb123! said:

Think they're being a bit optimistic with us taking 1,000 tbh but you never know I might be wrong

Would be surprised.  I’m a season ticket holder but can’t find any real enthusiasm for this game.  The fact it’s an Ayrshire junior team maybe helps a bit, but recent games against Lochee Utd, Aberdeen Sunnybank and Banks O’Dee have been amateur hour to some degree or other.  Playing Lochee on a public park/potato field on a Monday afternoon was probably peak cup romance, though the Sunnybank game had its merits - if the referee had actually applied the rules that day they’d have finished with 7 men.  If I remember right, Sunnybank went bust shortly after that game, so basically they took half the gate money then disappeared off to the pub.  Playing Banks O’Dee on a surface that looked to be designed for hockey was also a bit different.

So basically we’re risking our first team on a public park against  hammer throwers, risking our continued participation in a competition which ought to be an opportunity to bring in much needed revenue.  The Scottish Cup really should be the premier cup competition for professional football teams.  I accept there were always anomalies with highland league and non league teams allowed to participate, but personally I think the standard of teams being allowed to play has sunk far too low.

If you see this game as a bit of a novelty, fair play, but personally I’ll be content if we win and avoid any injuries.