Relegation Royal Rumble

[Reggie Perrin]

So it's down to these three games
Ayr v Alloa
Queen of the South v Partick Thistle
Falkirk v Ross County
 
Partick will be safe from the play offs if they don't get beat. If they do get beat they will still avoid the play offs if Alloa fail to win. They will be in the play offs if Alloa and Queens both win
 
Falkirk must win otherwise they finish 10th. If they manage to win () They need either Alloa to lose or Queens to lose and have a ten goal swing over Queens
 
A win for Alloa will ensure their safety. A draw will ensure at least the play offs. A draw will ensure their safety if Queens lose to Thistle. 
Alloa will finish bottom if they get beat and Falkirk win () They will be safe if they and Queens get beat and an 11 goal swing
 
Queens will be safe if they beat Thistle or if they match Alloa's result. A point will ensure at least the play offs
 
Any more permutations?
 

Any permutation involving a Falkirk win should be disregarded immediately.
The arse has fallen out of that team in the last few weeks and we will meekly slide into the diddy leagues for the first time since 1980.

[Fuctifano]

Early odds out for the games.

Alloa and Ayr priced the same with bet 365 and QoS favoured over Thistle but not odds on. 

[jagfox]

13 hours ago, South Lanarkshire Jag said:

The only involvement I have had with the programme since February has been to conduct player interviews - I thought today's with Dools was alright and a little different to the typical one you get in our programme.

The portion you refer to had nothing to do with me.

 

Thanks for clarifying.

Whoever put the programme together seems to have got McCall fired up though...

Check out @KennyCrawford_’s Tweet:

 

[Distant Doonhamer]

1 hour ago, jagfox99 said:

Thanks for clarifying.

Whoever put the programme together seems to have got McCall fired up though...

Check out @KennyCrawford_’s Tweet:

 

But surely this can't be true. McCall loves Thistle and was going to make sure they got full points from the 2 games with ayr this week.  I'm frankly amazed by this turn of events.

[Bairnardo]

Falkirk wont stay up, but if we do i want the goal scored in the style of Leeds United today.

[jagfox]

3 minutes ago, Distant Doonhamer said:

But surely this can't be true. McCall loves Thistle and was going to make sure they got full points from the 2 games with ayr this week.  I'm frankly amazed by this turn of events.

Yeah, a fondness that hit a nadir which included betting against his own team. 

I'm shocked he didn't forego a win bonus and building some semblance of momentum heading into the playoffs for some faux plaudits from his old team!

It's a funny old game...

[Fuctifano]

This is going to be one long fucking week. Hoping it's not a longer season after that. 

[AMMjag]

I've gone full Denethor after Saturday

[Scosha]

Delighted we’re no longer involved in this. Mon the Alloa on Saturday. 

[Poet of the Macabre]

Think Falkirk will win and Alloa will lose, making the Queens-Thistle game utterly irrelevant.

My ideal situation is Alloa get pumped and Falkirk are winning 1-0 with seconds left and concede a dodgy penalty, which is then scored.

[sick boy]

can't even imagine P & B if we stay up

[D.A.F.C]

Long injury time played in Alloa game. Falkirk do enough and are celebrating while Alloa score twice in injury time making them safe.

McKinnon refuses to accept this and arrested by police. All featured live on final score with Stephen Thomson falling off the couch laughing.

[Hawk89]

I’m not sure if it’s been mentioned anywhere but Ayr owe Alloa a favour. Would expect Alloa to stay up then.

You'll enjoy our Alloa love fest match thread [emoji6]

[Poet of the Macabre]

9 minutes ago, sick boy said:

can't even imagine P & B if we stay up

Will be good news for our coffers if nothing else.

[Colkitto]

Think Alloa will get at least a point against a weakened Ayr team.

Falkirk may or may not get a win, depends on what RC team turns up.   

[Savage Henry]

20 hours ago, Fuctifano said:

Early odds out for the games.

Alloa and Ayr priced the same with bet 365 and QoS favoured over Thistle but not odds on. 

Are Thistle still that bad?  If I were a Queen of the South fan, I'd be fully expecting the worst from that game.  They were pretty dreadful after the first 20 minutes on Friday, and they visibly turned on each other in the second half.

[19QOS19]

Are Thistle still that bad?  If I were a Queen of the South fan, I'd be fully expecting the worst from that game.  They were pretty dreadful after the first 20 minutes on Friday, and they visibly turned on each other in the second half.

We were the better side right up until the goal. Had Dobbie been there I reckon we'd have got at least one. If we play like that (and don't go behind!) we should be ok. Play like the last hour and we're fucked.

[TheScarf]

I was at the ICT v QOS game with the wife a few months back where we toyed with QOS but then Dobbie woke up and scored 2 goals in about 15 seconds to win the game 2-1.  I said to her before the game 'Watch this old cunt here, he's miles better than anyone else on the park'.  And it was true,  his touch, his vision, his surprising pace.  He stuck out of that QOS side like a big throbbing boaby of a thumb.  

It's no surprise to me that since he's been out of the side that they've fallen.  They looked like absolutely nothing when he was off the boil in the games he was playing in too. Absolutely zero threat.  Naysmith has to walk regardless of what league they find themselves in next season.  Literally relying on one player for a whole season.  Very Gareth Bale/Walesy IMO.

[Fuctifano]

 

For the last week, the check really is to see if the win chance % for the last games work out accurately.

Example, for Thistle to finish 9th requires an Alloa win (which the model has at 21.85%) and QoS win (34.88%). Multiplying these two gives 7.62% chance of happening and the 1000 sims gives 7.4%, so that’s close enough for me.

The first snip shows the sims based on the model’s chances.

However, the bookies (correctly IMO) take a different view on those two games -and the Falkirk one -based on intangibles like motivation and also where they think money will come in, with the Alloa and QoS win % being 36.65% and 41.88% once overround is stripped out (bet365 used for convenience, better odds available elsewhere depending on what you want to bet).

So the second snip is the outcomes when the win% based off the bet365 odds for the Ayr – Alloa, Falkirk- County, and QoS – Thistle games is overwritten.

That'll be the last update, think the two best predictions were that 40 points might not be enough to be safe, and enough results would fall Dunfermline's way that they'd be fine.

So I’ll see you all next February, I hope it’s not in the league one forum … 

[19QOS19]

 
For the last week, the check really is to see if the win chance % for the last games work out accurately.
Example, for Thistle to finish 9th requires an Alloa win (which the model has at 21.85%) and QoS win (34.88%). Multiplying these two gives 7.62% chance of happening and the 1000 sims gives 7.4%, so that’s close enough for me.
The first snip shows the sims based on the model’s chances.
However, the bookies (correctly IMO) take a different view on those two games -and the Falkirk one -based on intangibles like motivation and also where they think money will come in, with the Alloa and QoS win % being 36.65% and 41.88% once overround is stripped out (bet365 used for convenience, better odds available elsewhere depending on what you want to bet).
So the second snip is the outcomes when the win% based off the bet365 odds for the Ayr – Alloa, Falkirk- County, and QoS – Thistle games is overwritten.
That'll be the last update, think the two best predictions were that 40 points might not be enough to be safe, and enough results would fall Dunfermline's way that they'd be fine.
So I’ll see you all next February, I hope it’s not in the league one forum … 

Reading these posts makes me feel incredibly stupid I must say