Relegation Royal Rumble

[Bairnardo]

Reading these posts makes me feel incredibly stupid I must say [emoji20]

Which is especially upsetting when you dont have much in the way of wiggle room....

[Fae_the_'briggs]

1 hour ago, TheScarf said:

I was at the ICT v QOS game with the wife a few months back where we toyed with QOS but then Dobbie woke up and scored 2 goals in about 15 seconds to win the game 2-1.  I said to her before the game 'Watch this old c**t here, he's miles better than anyone else on the park'.  And it was true,  his touch, his vision, his surprising pace.  He stuck out of that QOS side like a big throbbing boaby of a thumb.  

It's no surprise to me that since he's been out of the side that they've fallen.  They looked like absolutely nothing when he was off the boil in the games he was playing in too. Absolutely zero threat.  Naysmith has to walk regardless of what league they find themselves in next season.  Literally relying on one player for a whole season.  Very Gareth Bale/Walesy IMO.

That's the problem,  our decline started quite a few games before Dobbie got injured but our Manager's then obsession of sitting back and soaking up pressure and tying to steal points meant that Dobbie was often left stranded up front trying to stop 3 or 4 opposition defenders from playing out from the back. No wonder he looked pissed off a lot of the time.  Now our Manager realises that we now have to try and win games to achieve safety and is playing a more attacking style Dobbie hasn't been available. 

[Distant Doonhamer]

2 hours ago, TheScarf said:

I was at the ICT v QOS game with the wife a few months back where we toyed with QOS but then Dobbie woke up and scored 2 goals in about 15 seconds to win the game 2-1.  I said to her before the game 'Watch this old c**t here, he's miles better than anyone else on the park'.  And it was true,  his touch, his vision, his surprising pace.  He stuck out of that QOS side like a big throbbing boaby of a thumb.  

It's no surprise to me that since he's been out of the side that they've fallen.  They looked like absolutely nothing when he was off the boil in the games he was playing in too. Absolutely zero threat.  Naysmith has to walk regardless of what league they find themselves in next season.  Literally relying on one player for a whole season.  Very Gareth Bale/Walesy IMO.

Is that the game where we scored 2 goals late on to win 2-1 . If so then Scott Mercer got the first QOS goal. Your point stands otherwise though. 

Edited April 29, 2019 by Distant Doonhamer

[TheScarf]

2 minutes ago, Distant Doonhamer said:

Is that the game where we scored 2 goals late on to win 2-1 . If so then Scott Mercer got the first QOS goal. Your point stands otherwise though. 

Aye that's the one.  Dobbie must've set him up then.  He was definitely heavily involved with it.

[Distant Doonhamer]

3 minutes ago, TheScarf said:

Aye that's the one.  Dobbie must've set him up then.  He was definitely heavily involved with it.

Mercer scored for a Marshall assist from memory. Can't recall if Dobbie was involved.

Edit to add he wasn`t

 

Edited April 29, 2019 by Distant Doonhamer

[Poet of the Macabre]

Alloa led their last two matches and ended up losing. If either of these games had been drawn, then Falkirk would be already gone. This makes me think they'll scrape their way into the play-offs at least.

[TheScarf]

Yep, Falkirk keep losing but results also seem to be going for them.

[Ranaldo Bairn]

23 minutes ago, Poet of the Macabre said:

Alloa led their last two matches and ended up losing. If either of these games had been drawn, then Falkirk would be already gone. This makes me think they'll scrape their way into the play-offs at least.

 

5 minutes ago, TheScarf said:

Yep, Falkirk keep losing but results also seem to be going for them.

Stop it.

Aside from our outrageously fortunate pilfering of points at EEP we've been gone in all but name since whichever Alloa neep it was snuck in a late winner at our place.

[TheScarf]

3 minutes ago, Ranaldo Bairn said:

 

Stop it.

Aside from our outrageously fortunate pilfering of points at EEP we've been gone in all but name since whichever Alloa neep it was snuck in a late winner at our place.

Not really.  You can literally still finish 9th and stay up via the play offs.

[Ranaldo Bairn]

I know we can arithmetically but the players' heads appear to be down. No DKD or ZR on our attacking spectrum on Saturday means the County defenders can bring a bottle of port to go with their cigars.

[Hughsie]

Is Rudden actually suspended? A quick Google suggests he is actually on 7 bookings.

Edited April 29, 2019 by Hughsie

[Ranaldo Bairn]

6 minutes ago, Hughsie said:

Is Rudden actually suspended? A quick Google suggests he is actually on 7 bookings.

Dunno actually.  I read it here somewhere. Just looked at the SFA list and there was nothing on last week's list. Thursday will tell for this weekend.

Edited April 29, 2019 by Ranaldo Bairn

[Skyline Drifter]

30 minutes ago, Hughsie said:

Is Rudden actually suspended? A quick Google suggests he is actually on 7 bookings.

Unless he's on 12 he's not suspended.

[Poet of the Macabre]

Will teach me for taking VT as a reliable source. 

[Hughsie]

7 minutes ago, Skyline Drifter said:

Unless he's on 12 he's not suspended.

He’s not on 12 definitely.

He looks to have incurred a sixth booking against Alloa earlier in the season but I don’t recall him serving a suspension. He must have though!

Edited April 29, 2019 by Hughsie

[Pie Of The Month]

18 minutes ago, Hughsie said:

He’s not on 12 definitely.

He looks to have incurred a sixth booking against Alloa earlier in the season but I don’t recall him serving a suspension. He must have though!

Not necessarily, he would've only been suspended if he was booked 6 times by a certain date. The rules changed this season I believe.

Edited April 29, 2019 by Pie Of The Month

[South Lanarkshire Jag]

Just now, Pie Of The Month said:

Not necessarily, he would've only been suspended if he was booked 6 times by a certain date. The rules changed this season I believe.

Correct.

6 bookings by the conclusion of Game 18(19 in premiership) = 1 game ban to be served after 14 days.

12 bookings required from then on and gets a 2 game ban.

[I'm Brian]

5 hours ago, Fuctifano said:

 

For the last week, the check really is to see if the win chance % for the last games work out accurately.

Example, for Thistle to finish 9th requires an Alloa win (which the model has at 21.85%) and QoS win (34.88%). Multiplying these two gives 7.62% chance of happening and the 1000 sims gives 7.4%, so that’s close enough for me.

The first snip shows the sims based on the model’s chances.

However, the bookies (correctly IMO) take a different view on those two games -and the Falkirk one -based on intangibles like motivation and also where they think money will come in, with the Alloa and QoS win % being 36.65% and 41.88% once overround is stripped out (bet365 used for convenience, better odds available elsewhere depending on what you want to bet).

So the second snip is the outcomes when the win% based off the bet365 odds for the Ayr – Alloa, Falkirk- County, and QoS – Thistle games is overwritten.

That'll be the last update, think the two best predictions were that 40 points might not be enough to be safe, and enough results would fall Dunfermline's way that they'd be fine.

So I’ll see you all next February, I hope it’s not in the league one forum … 

Sterling work sir.

Even if the worst does happen and you fail in the play offs, please come back to the championship. I'd quite like to see our chances in next years relegation scrap

[Hughsie]

10 minutes ago, South Lanarkshire Jag said:

Correct.

6 bookings by the conclusion of Game 18(19 in premiership) = 1 game ban to be served after 14 days.

12 bookings required from then on and gets a 2 game ban.

Superb. It’ll make no difference like, but superb nonetheless.

[Bairnardo]

Superb. It’ll make no difference like, but superb nonetheless.

He can get the ovation he deserves before the bile starts.