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General Election Speculation


NotThePars

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4 minutes ago, WhiteRoseKillie said:

The only way they're getting a VONC is if they call for it themselves. Added to the absolute mess they're shitting all over Parliament as we speak - with no sign of them having the slightest smidgeon of competence - how is that going to play on the doorsteps?

It'll be my first line - so, the Tories themselves think they're shit. Here's our manifesto. Put you down as a maybe?

Labour will have to call one as Boris won't comply with this daft Benn bill.

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7 minutes ago, Detournement said:

Boris would love to run as an insurgent saying that the other parties formed an illegitimate government to stop Brexit.

Not after October 31. 

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 If he extends A50 it kills his credentials with Brexit Party

Jesus you are sharp. Almost as if there was  a plan to all this. 

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Tory members made their choice clear, I doubt the MPs will be in a rush to repeat the PLP's chicken coup masterstroke 

After losing No 10, losing a VONC and being replaced by his enemies who would then set the agenda to weaken him. 

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There is no chance of a referendum before an election as no one is stupid is enough to agree to be PM for the 7 or 8 months it

7 or 8 weeks to schedule a referendum through parliament if they could not expedite the legislation. 

 

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The Benn bill will pass then Boris will announce that he considers it over reach and that he will not be extending A50

It is a legal obligation on the government and it has a date that ensures he cannot wait till October 31 before asking for it. Almost as if there was a plan to all this. 

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6 minutes ago, Detournement said:

Boris would love to run as an insurgent saying that the other parties formed an illegitimate government to stop Brexit. If he extends A50 it kills his credentials with Brexit Party voters. His position is safe. Tory members made their choice clear, I doubt the MPs will be in a rush to repeat the PLP's chicken coup masterstroke of telling the members they made the wrong choice.

There is no chance of a referendum before an election as no one is stupid is enough to agree to be PM for the 7 or 8 months it takes to run a referendum then a GE.

The Benn bill will pass then Boris will announce that he considers it over reach and that he will not be extending A50. That will leave a VONC, a short term government to get an extension and an election.

 

 

 

It's a brave man who calls a 5k majority "safe" in this day and age, especially when the incumbent appears hell-bent on destroying any reason voters might back him. I can see him and La Swinson Spending a lot more time with their family (Or families, in his case) come Christmas.

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7 minutes ago, WhiteRoseKillie said:

It's a brave man who calls a 5k majority "safe" in this day and age, especially when the incumbent appears hell-bent on destroying any reason voters might back him. I can see him and La Swinson Spending a lot more time with their family (Or families, in his case) come Christmas.

I meant his position as Tory leader not in Uxbridge.

He might take one of the rebel's safe seats now anyway 😂

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6 minutes ago, Detournement said:

I think he would much rather campaign in the wake of a "Brexit Betrayal" as a Trump style insurgent than actually have to bear responsibility for the situation as PM.

He is constantly trying for a pre October 31 election. They will likely table a motion for it tonight. That is why he has been running an election campaign since he got the job. This 4D chess pish where he wants to lose a vote of no confidence is tripe. He is being comprehensively out manoeuvred by people like Dominic Grieve and Keir Stamer, you know the kind of people who actually staid awake in class and payed attention, two former QC's. People who know the law and how parliament works, not people who spent their time on Have I Got News For You. .

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They are simply going through the motions at the moment. No one is being outmanoeuvred by anyone.

He obviously doesn't want to lose a VONC but he has to choose between either losing a VONC or extending A50. He will obviously choose to lose the vote.

As for the establishment suits knowing the law they are about to find out they can't force the PM to do anything.

 

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As for the establishment suits knowing the law they are about to find out they can't force the PM to do anything.


I agree the election is unavoidable but, at least in normal times, outing the Prime Minister as someone who doesn’t follow laws as set out by Parliament would tend to be a bit of a red flag for voters.
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2 minutes ago, Paco said:

 


I agree the election is unavoidable but, at least in normal times, outing the Prime Minister as someone who doesn’t follow laws as set out by Parliament would tend to be a bit of a red flag for voters.

 

Parliament isn't following norms either.

The norm is the Prime Minister has the confidence of the house to exercise his power or he doesn't. This is decided via confidence votes.

MPs deciding they can micro manage the PM with legislation is completely new.

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Thought Corbyn actually did really well at in the debate today.

He's always been a protester not a leader, maybe having a clown fascist on the other bench, a big bad thing to go after, is good for him.

Something to consider if and when there's an election.

Obviously Labour will be annihilated in Scotland, but might to better than expected in England

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5 minutes ago, killiefan27 said:

Thought Corbyn actually did really well at in the debate today.

He's always been a protester not a leader, maybe having a clown fascist on the other bench, a big bad thing to go after, is good for him.

Something to consider if and when there's an election.

Obviously Labour will be annihilated in Scotland, but might to better than expected in England

Agree, but it partly shows how ill suited he was to take on a forensic Maybot who did her homework. A blagging buffoon is a gift for him, ripped him a new one imo.

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The anti No Deal legislation is a fantasy though.
Parliament doesn't have that power. 
We are into uncharted waters here though - with an unwritten constitution anything can happen.

A successful VoNC won't necessarily lead to a General Election either - if MPs united behind a caretaker they can all agree on - like Ken Clarke.
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7 hours ago, welshbairn said:

The opposition maybe fragmenting tactically already.

 

 

7 hours ago, dorlomin said:

Shot to nothing, she gets to pretend to be keen on Twitter while not really having to back an election that would lead to No Deal. 

Anyone still think the SNP want an election before October 31? Big words on twitter, less so in the House. 

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