Coronavirus (COVID-19)

[Michael W]

13 minutes ago, Rodhull said:

Apologies if already posted but a really good thread showing how Ireland has managed to have less than half the deaths of the UK despite being in a similar (slightly worse off) position with regards to number of ICU beds. Largely caused by the Government dithering at the start of this.

 

It doesn't seem useful at all to compare the UK and Ireland. Switzerland is a far more appropriate comparison for Ireland, and the difference in approach has shown there. 

The UK's best comparators are Germany, Italy, Spain and France - countries with large populations and also particular areas with very large use of public transport and high volumes of international traffic. Dublin is a large city but it is not a London, Paris or Madrid - all of these cities have a metropolitan area with a much larger population than Ireland. The Dublin metropolitan area is more at risk than Ireland as wholefor obvious reasons, but then you have other metropolitan areas with between 3 and 5 times the population of Dublin at higher risk in the UK, France and Spain. It will never be a suitable comparison. 

The only one of those countries there bucking the trend is Germany. The rest are, or have been, a shambles. 

The wider point in that thread about being slow to stop mass gatherings is correct, but that's about where the usefulness of the comparison with Ireland ends to be honest. 

[Father Ted]

15 minutes ago, ayrmad said:

Cat hater found. 

Lol. Should've read "I would NOT leave in charge of a cat".  That's what happens when trying to do too many  things at once and not paying attention.

I would leave her in charge of a back firing dragon however in the hope she would be toast.

[ayrmad]

11 minutes ago, ICTJohnboy said:

From Nick Martin, Sky News.

There are thought to be more than 1,000 coronavirus deaths in care homes in England alone but they are not counted in the official figures.

It feels like the nurses here are fighting on a forgotten frontline.

This is, for now, a hidden death toll, with lives being lost in the shadows of this crisis.

As of 27th March, there were 642 more deaths registered than reported, that's why I've said England could be at 15000 after today, of course the rate of registered to reported could have closed considerably over the last 15 days, who knows. 

[Granny Danger]

23 minutes ago, alta-pete said:

Just because each are at polar opposites of the political spectrum doesn’t make it non political. It just means both have made a rip roaring c**t of it.

Dead easy to blame the Boris. Not so easy it seems to have the equivalent go at Saint Nic. 

The difference is the resources the U.K. government has to deal with it is a result of U.K. government policy over the last 15 plus years.

Whereas the resources the Scottish government has to deal with it is ALSO a result of U.K. government policy over the last 15 plus years.

If we lived in an Independent country where the government (regardless of their affiliation) had  total control over revenue raising and expenditure then said government would be fully responsible.

 

[Granny Danger]

3 minutes ago, Father Ted said:

Lol. Should've read "I would NOT leave in charge of a cat".  That's what happens when trying to do too many  things at once and not paying attention.

I would leave her in charge of a back firing dragon however in the hope she would be toast.

I don’t like cats.

 

 

 

 

I still wouldn’t leave Patel in charge of one.

[pandarilla]

Worth reading this to the bottom before covering your screen with spittle.
https://www.gofundme.com/f/save-the-sun-newspaper?utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=p_cp+share-sheet

Ahhh, now i get it.

Have to admit it took me a while as i never clicked the 'read more' bit early enough.

[coprolite]

36 minutes ago, beefybake said:

The comparisons are being made with reference to the EU.  The only person talking about the US is you.

As a percentage of GDP,  in the figures from 2016,  the UK spent 12.6 % less on healthcare than Germany.

As a percentage of GDP,  in 2016 the UK spent less than the overall  EU average.

I was asking a question and illustrated my reason for asking by referring to the UK. 

If you don't understand the question or don't know the answer, that's fine but no need to be arsey. 

I'll try again. 

Is that a figure for government spending on health or is it the figure for the amount of spending on health in each economy? That is, do those figures include spending by private individuals and companies on private health provision? I ask because private health spending is not a good comparator if you are looking at what the government is doing.  

It seems Germany is definitely doing something better and i would really be interested to know what and how. Those raw figures are not particularly illuminating without context. 

[pandarilla]

"Positive thinking" is about as much use as "thoughts and prayers". God forbid anyone is a bit of a realist while 1,000 folk are dying every day.

Maybe they should try "hope" or "positive thinking"

Clapping on a thursday night is the key 

Clapping is a good start but it won't solve the problem by itself. If just a few more people hit pans with spoons then i think we can beat this thing. 

Once we've tried all this we can all focus on the real solution to this problem, bitching about everything on the internet.

[Billy Jean King]

I would not try to second guess nature. It will be what it will be, why try to second guess it. Let's just see how it pans out.

At the moment, the UK peak new cases day was 5th April with 5,903. To say that figure has been rising every day since just isn't true. Our current peak deaths day was April 10th, with 980.
Italy's peak death day, btw, was 26th March - 15 days prior. If we are 2 weeks behind them as we are often told, again that fits.
Of course i'm speculating - i'm looking at the available data across the worst hit places in Europe, looking for any patterns and then applying them to the data available from here.
What's wrong with that? What would you do differently?

[Granny Danger]

4 minutes ago, pandarilla said:

Once we've tried all this we can all focus on the real solution to this problem, bitching about everything on the internet.

Actually there is a solution.

[Rodhull]

28 minutes ago, Michael W said:

The wider point in that thread about being slow to stop mass gatherings is correct, but that's about where the usefulness of the comparison with Ireland ends to be honest. 

The UK’s much lower rate of testing and it’s inefficient methods of statistical recording of data not giving a true measure of the numbers of related deaths is also important.

Whilst not a comparison to Ireland there are a lot more countries than Germany with high population density similar to the UK that are performing far better than the UK is so I’m not sure London’s population is quite the scapegoat people want it to be.

Edited April 12, 2020 by Rodhull
Poor wording on my part.

[welshbairn]

Useful summary for non statisticians.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/12/coronavirus-statistics-what-can-we-trust-and-what-should-we-ignore

[beefybake]

28 minutes ago, coprolite said:

I was asking a question and illustrated my reason for asking by referring to the UK. 

If you don't understand the question or don't know the answer, that's fine but no need to be arsey. 

I'll try again. 

Is that a figure for government spending on health or is it the figure for the amount of spending on health in each economy? That is, do those figures include spending by private individuals and companies on private health provision? I ask because private health spending is not a good comparator if you are looking at what the government is doing.  

It seems Germany is definitely doing something better and i would really be interested to know what and how. Those raw figures are not particularly illuminating without context. 

It's your choice whether to be illuminated, or not.  And actually you used the US as a reference point.

The link is there for you to read and digest, and draw conclusions from, or not.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-52234061

Edited April 12, 2020 by beefybake

[D.A.F.C]

Anyone think that the herd immunity thing was just a ruse to make the public believe they had some sort of control or a plan?

We had low ICU beds, hardly any PPE, low test kits, destroyed health service. Would the government be so stupid to add herd immunity to all of that?

We should have locked down the country as soon as Italy went into a crisis. Deaths would have been 1000 not 10000

[coprolite]

10 minutes ago, beefybake said:

It's your choice whether to be illuminated, or not.  And actually you used the US as a reference point.

The link is there for you to read and digest, and draw conclusions from, or not.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-52234061

Thanks for the link. 

6.8% of German spending is by the govt compared to 79% on the uk. The balance is pretty much insurance.

29% of German spending is on hospitals compared to 42% of the UKs. 

The overall difference could be easily accounted for by Germans paying insurers dividends and using proportionally more higher margin discretionary services. Might not be though, maybe they just provide more through community channels and maybe private provision is more efficient. 

Given the difficulties in compiling any economic measure i'm inclined to think that the headline difference of 13% doesn't show a significant difference in healthcare provision, and that consequently it is more likely that it's testing levels that are making the most difference. 

[Forest_Fifer]

Tim Brooke Taylor died with covid 19. f**k.

[Michael W]

44 minutes ago, Rodhull said:

The UK’s much lower rate of testing and it’s inefficient methods of statistical recording of data not giving a true measure of the numbers of related deaths is also important.

Whilst not a comparison to Ireland there are a lot more countries than Germany with high population density similar to the UK that are performing far better than the UK is so I’m not sure London’s population is quite the scapegoat people want it to be.

Agree on the testing - it has been inadequate but in itself is not a silver bullet. 

The data is indeed a total shambles and it is indefensible. 

Population density is a tricky one for the UK. The only countries in Europe with a higher population density (excluding the microstates and Channel Islands etc) are Malta, the Netherlands and Belgium. None of these have a city anywhere near the size of London either despite the population densities. England taken on its own is significantly more densely populated than Belgium. There isn't a country with the population size of England that can match it for population density, and indeed there are few that match it for population density at all. Even Belgium is around 65 people per square Km less densely populated. 

Thing is, the mass gatherings referred to were around 4 weeks ago and so arguably we are seeing the consequences of them now. I don't really recall much opposition to these being held at the time. It is clear in hindsight that this was a huge mistake. 

Edited April 12, 2020 by Michael W

[Jacksgranda]

We're never going to have an accurate figure for Covid-19 deaths in the UK. Whenever this is all over - if it ever is - we will get a death tally, let's say 25,000 for the sake of a figure. This will immediately be dismissed by most folk with reactions ranging from an "Aye, right" to full on CONSHPIRACY theories complete with graphs, videos and personal accounts from "my mate's a nurse/mortuary attendant/funeral director/bin man/timber merchant/unemployed fantasist like I am and he says..."

"Authoritative" guesstimates ranging from twice the official figure to six times the official figure will be bandied about and get accepted as gospel and regurgitated for years to come.

[Mark Connolly]

Boris is off to Chequers to recuperate.

Great news.

[Jacksgranda]

15 minutes ago, Michael W said:

Agree on the testing - it has been inadequate but in itself is not a silver bullet. 

The data is indeed a total shambles and it is indefensible. 

Population density is a tricky one for the UK. The only countries in Europe with a higher population density (excluding the microstates and Channel Islands etc) are Malta, the Netherlands and Belgium. None of these have a city anywhere near the size of London either despite the population densities. England taken on its own is significantly more densely populated than Belgium. There isn't a country with the population size of England that can match it for population density, and indeed there are few that match it for population density at all. Even Belgium is around 65 people per square Km less densely populated. 

Thing is, the mass gatherings referred to were around 4 weeks ago and so arguably we are seeing the consequences of them now. I don't really recall much opposition to these being held at the time. It is clear in hindsight that this was a huge mistake. 

Everybody has the answers now, but as you say, did they have the answers then?