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Coronavirus (COVID-19)


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We're in lockdown because the hospitals are fucked. We've been told that isn't going to improve for several weeks which takes us well into February. Slow improvement from there will hopefully see us starting to open up by the middle of March/beginning of April. To open up any sooner would be ludicrous
This is all very well to be cautious and slowly open things up but unless the support for small business and their employees improves then its going to come at a greater cost. A month here or there may not seem much but you have businesses that have either been closed or running at vastly reduced levels for 14 months by the time the end of April comes around.
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1 hour ago, s_dog said:

 


I don't really have a clue what plan b should be, nor do I think everyone should be kept under restrictions forever. I think that these scientists, advisors etc are pretty much like most of us, they're pinning their hopes on the vaccines working as planned, and beyond that, they'll keep doing what they've being doing up until now, reacting and scrambling about because the whole point is no one knows of a quick & easy answer of how to fix it. The fact they basically sat all summer and warned of a possible second wave in winter and did nothing but wait for vaccines is a perfect example of that.

We may well end up with vaccinations every year while the pandemic runs its course and  have no choice but to live with a certain amount of illness & death from it until it does. Hopefully not, and the vaccines will work and like you say, we'll  be left with something that is at least no more deadly than the flu. But the point is, how can you or anyone else on here, some random people on a football forum, be so absolutely certain about what is going to happen?

Why would vaccines not "work as planned"? They have passed all required clinical trials.

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7 minutes ago, ICTChris said:

Northern Ireland have vaccinated 80% of care home residents.

Edited to add - that is Northern Ireland have given 80%of their care home residents both doses of the Pfizer vaccine.

Just chasin headlines like bojo think Nic doing a great job with the yoon seethe 😂🤣😂🤣🙈🙉🙊🙈🙉🙊😹😹😭😭😭😭😂

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This is all very well to be cautious and slowly open things up but unless the support for small business and their employees improves then its going to come at a greater cost. A month here or there may not seem much but you have businesses that have either been closed or running at vastly reduced levels for 14 months by the time the end of April comes around.
Unless more hospitals are built over the coming weeks we don't have much choice. The ICU's are already over run and staff are at breaking point. I would recommend watching BBC 6 o'clock news this week if you haven't already done so. They've been running daily reports from ICU's.

Unfortunately the economy is already gubbed and we will be paying the price for a generation. I have every sympathy for small businesses and those people who have lost there jobs (I was very nearly one of them at the start of the last lockdown and may still be) but until hospital admissions reduce to a manageable level the only tool we have is restrictions.
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21 minutes ago, Marshmallo said:

Why would vaccines not "work as planned"? They have passed all required clinical trials.

We don't know how long they will work for, or if they will stop transmission. Neither of those is measured in trials.

Anything else involves standard virus behaviour of it constantly varying and mutating which could make vaccines less effective. We'd just need to keep adapting the vaccines to keep ahead of it though. Stéphane Bancel, head of Moderna said just recently "We are going to live with this virus, we think, forever." But then he would say that, as his company will make an awful lot of money if that happens.

Speaking of which, the vaccine roll-out gives the UK Gov another chance to award yet another huge contract to a firm with ties to the Tories.

Tory donor Lord Ashcroft’s outsourcing firm lands £350m vaccination contract

https://www.opendemocracy.net/en/dark-money-investigations/revealed-tory-donor-lord-ashcrofts-outsourcing-firm-given-350m-vaccination-contract/

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6 minutes ago, MuckleMoo said:


Unfortunately the economy is already gubbed and we will be paying the price for a generation. 

Nowhere near as gubbed or as large a price we'll be paying for extended lockdowns in 2021 as well. Furlough does not remove all operating costs and businesses are failing every week.

The damage to the economy is therefore not some sunk cost that we can now just write off: that element is only going to get worse and not better any time soon. Which is why when restrictions are lifted they should be done promptly and with none of this zero Covid drivel poisoning the well.

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2 minutes ago, Sherrif John Bunnell said:

It might be worth taking the risk of licking a door handle or two.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EsScGPkW4AQXLRI?format=jpg&name=medium

This is the sensible way to ensure compliance is at least possible for those people in unsecure employment. Only a year late.

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53 minutes ago, ICTChris said:

Northern Ireland have vaccinated 80% of care home residents.

Edited to add - that is Northern Ireland have given 80%of their care home residents both doses of the Pfizer vaccine.

The hospitals are still swamped but there will hopefully be some evidence of a drop in the number of old biddies dying.

 

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38 minutes ago, s_dog said:

Anything else involves standard virus behaviour of it constantly varying and mutating which could make vaccines less effective. We'd just need to keep adapting the vaccines to keep ahead of it though. 

This isn't a negative though, it's just something known that happens. It's standard practice with viruses to mutate and virologists who have worked on vaccine development their entire lives are aware of and capable of adapting to these things happening. This is why there is a new flu vaccine developed annually.

That being said, I don't believe there is a recorded instance in human history of a widespread and successful vaccine programme being rendered massively ineffective on a widespread scale by a virus mutating, certainly not to the point where we couldn't develop a fix. The only example I can think of is HIV which has had apparently successful small scale vaccines in the past only for the virus to evolve so quickly (it can do so in weeks within the individual to fight off the vaccine) that the vaccine is rendered useless. It's a different beast altogether. Like trying to staple jelly to a wall.  

Flu and respiratory viruses by comparison are relatively stable but even then, vaccine developers get on top of mutations early every season and produce a new vaccine to be administered annually. Even compared to influenza, the Covid virus appears to be relatively stable in terms of mutations. It's legitimately quite unremarkable in that sense.

I suppose that if we stopped researching, upgrading and developing the vaccine, just went with the current iteration forever and never decided to update or tweak it further, then in a few years it would be a lot less effective when thousands of further mutations of the virus have taken place, but why would that ever be allowed to happen? Vaccine development, like the virus itself, constantly evolves.

A virus mutating is nowhere near as detrimental to vaccine development as it is being made out to be.

Edited by djchapsticks
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Nowhere near as gubbed or as large a price we'll be paying for extended lockdowns in 2021 as well. Furlough does not remove all operating costs and businesses are failing every week.
The damage to the economy is therefore not some sunk cost that we can now just write off: that element is only going to get worse and not better any time soon. Which is why when restrictions are lifted they should be done promptly and with none of this zero Covid drivel poisoning the well.
Agree with most of what you said. My reasoning is that we are cautious coming out of lockdown so that we avoid ever having to do it again. Look at where we were in the summer in regards to infection numbers to where we are now. Its been a fucking shambles. Granted we have the vaccines now which will hopefully make the difference. I'm not one of those zero Covid fanatics but to suggest we should be opening up now is ridiculous (not you)
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1 minute ago, MuckleMoo said:
32 minutes ago, virginton said:
Nowhere near as gubbed or as large a price we'll be paying for extended lockdowns in 2021 as well. Furlough does not remove all operating costs and businesses are failing every week.
The damage to the economy is therefore not some sunk cost that we can now just write off: that element is only going to get worse and not better any time soon. Which is why when restrictions are lifted they should be done promptly and with none of this zero Covid drivel poisoning the well.

Agree with most of what you said. My reasoning is that we are cautious coming out of lockdown so that we avoid ever having to do it again. Look at where we were in the summer in regards to infection numbers to where we are now. Its been a fucking shambles. Granted we have the vaccines now which will hopefully make the difference. I'm not one of those zero Covid fanatics but to suggest we should be opening up now is ridiculous (not you)

But we were already slow in opening up over the summer, in fact I don't think there were many other countries that were as slow in opening up as Scotland.  Added to that we fairly quickly had restrictions re-imposed regarding household visiting in the most populated part of Scotland, how much slower can we realistically go?  

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