Michael W Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 34 minutes ago, mizfit said: I’ve a feeling most organisers were waiting for the first cancelled event before the floodgates opened. The Johnson strategy - don't lead, let someone else be the bad guy. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marshmallo Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 (edited) 4 minutes ago, renton said: One dose or two? Second dose https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2021/01/19/pfizer-vaccine-may-prevent-transmission-coronavirus-others-israeli/ https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9162639/Pfizer-vaccine-prevent-transmission-coronavirus-others.html Apologies for the sources. Heard the figures on a podcast today from The Economist. EDIT: https://podcasts.google.com/feed/aHR0cHM6Ly9yc3MuYWNhc3QuY29tL3RoZWVjb25vbWlzdGFsbGF1ZGlv/episode/NDcwMDYzYTAtYzk4NC00YWZiLTk4MTMtMzBhMjUyZjdkZjVj?hl=en-GB&ved=2ahUKEwi2gsHr16_uAhUUoVwKHcLSA_4QjrkEegQIBhAF&ep=6 Middle bit of this Edited January 22, 2021 by Marshmallo -1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Michael W Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 25 minutes ago, djchapsticks said: More shite - apparently this was always going to be the case to be locked down until summer. It's fucking January. We were told that opening for 5 days over Xmas would 'lead to 4 weeks lockdown' and now apparently that was reduced to 1 day opening which is leading to around 5-6 months. Once the NHS is no longer at critical levels, this chatter needs to get in the fucking bin. These 'zero covid at all costs' fuckers should not be given airtime. Always amusing when they say the government needs a long term strategy and then never elaborate on what that might look like. Maybe they just don't like the answer (vaccinate the population and bin the restrictions). 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Todd_is_God Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 Just now, Snafu said: Has there been any move towards a zero covid strategy from the Scottish Government? No, but It's largely irrelevant for now as we are miles away from that. I'm sure that chatter will start once we near summer, as the likes of Sridhar warn about repeating "the mistakes" of last summer, without considering A that we have a vaccine and B, that the real mistakes were in keeping everything closed as long as they did. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
renton Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 (edited) 4 minutes ago, Marshmallo said: Second dose https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2021/01/19/pfizer-vaccine-may-prevent-transmission-coronavirus-others-israeli/ https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9162639/Pfizer-vaccine-prevent-transmission-coronavirus-others.html Apologies for the sources. Heard the figures on a podcast today from The Economist. Aye, was it not also the case that first dose only seemed like it wasn't nearly as good as advertised though? I guess that's a concern. A strategy of spacing doses out to broaden the number of folk getting at least one looks smart when Pfizer are telling you it has a 90% efficiacy rate after one and 95% after 2. If it's only 52% efficient after one dose and with no data on how that cuts transmission, then Tony Blair, with his intervention in that debate, may have served to screw the country one more time, as it will take far longer to start to generate the kind of results Israel are seeing as they aren't doing 12 week spacings... Edited January 22, 2021 by renton 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Todd_is_God Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 13 minutes ago, renton said: They are spooked by the supposedly increased R of the B117 variant. Really depends on how much increased transmission there actually is... Wouldn't be surprised in all honesty if it's hardly any. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Distant Doonhamer Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 UK R number between 0.8 and 1. R Number 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
realmadrid Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 As the effectiveness of any vaccine is dependent on the immune system of the recipient this could take longer than some (including me) had hoped. We are rightly targeting the most vulnerable to give them some level of protection but even if the vaccines all have a protection rate of about 90% thats not going to be the hit rate in this older or more vulnerable group, the group most likely to end up in hospital. Thus maybe 15% to 20% of this group could end up in hospital with Covid. Hopefully then as we move down the groups the effectiveness will then improve, transmission fall and then restrictions end. The acceptable level of deaths will also be countered by the fact that some of these people would have had other conditions which take up beds in the NHS. Id guess there will be less heart attacks , less cancer cases etc. The results possibly mean a reduction in life expectancy for everyone but we cannot all be locked up for ever. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Todd_is_God Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 2 minutes ago, renton said: Aye, was it not also the case that first dose only seemed like it wasn't nearly as good as advertised though? I guess that's a concern. A strategy of spacing doses out to broaden the number of folk getting at least one looks smart when Pfizer are telling you it has a 90% efficiacy rate after one and 95% after 2. If it's only 52% efficient after one dose and with no data on how that cuts transmission, then Tony Blair, with his intervention in that debate, may have served to screw the country one more time, as it will take far longer to start to generate the kind of results Israel are seeing as they aren't doing 12 week spacings... No. It wasn't that effective until the third week after being administered (though 52% after one week is not dreadful). In essence, it was the "ZoMg tEh vAcCiNe dOeSn'T WoRk" type of article that was entirely predictable. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Todd_is_God Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 Just now, Snafu said: I've not seen for what reason why Pfizer have been reducing the deliveries of the vaccine. I see Italy are threatening them with legal action. Surely supply must meet demand here unless there is a problem in the manufacturing or they simply can't keep up? Because people told them they could get more from what they were delivering than they were paying for. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
renton Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 2 minutes ago, Todd_is_God said: Wouldn't be surprised in all honesty if it's hardly any. I honestly wouldn't either, but the crux of it will be how it effects numbers in lockdown, rather than during the busiest retail period of the year. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Billy Jean King Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 I think after approaching a year, and three (hopefully soon to be four) vaccines on the go, people could do with some hope and optimism in life.But not false hope. The truth is sometimes hard to take but sugar coating stuff like this helps no one. If the organisers of these events think it's remotely possible they will delay a decision. Clearly Glastonbury organisers didn't. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
welshbairn Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 3 minutes ago, Snafu said: I've not seen for what reason why Pfizer have been reducing the deliveries of the vaccine. I see Italy are threatening them with legal action. Surely supply must meet demand here unless there is a problem in the manufacturing or they simply can't keep up? Pfizer say they have to pause production so they can make changes that will allow them to scale it up. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Billy Jean King Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 Heads should be on pikes for any suggestions longer than 2 week rolling reviews.NI health minister has followed up yesterday's extension to 5 March with a statement today "warning " it's very unlikely to be ended then too. Not sure what's worse, being drip fed extensions in 2 week rolling reviews or being given the harsh longer term reality ? 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steven W Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 5 minutes ago, Billy Jean King said: 47 minutes ago, Steven W said: I think after approaching a year, and three (hopefully soon to be four) vaccines on the go, people could do with some hope and optimism in life. But not false hope. The truth is sometimes hard to take but sugar coating stuff like this helps no one. If the organisers of these events think it's remotely possible they will delay a decision. Clearly Glastonbury organisers didn't. But my question is centring on "when?" Surely NS has brought this up herself among her advisors. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
renton Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 https://www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-modelling-epidemic-issue-no-35/ Scottish R estimated at 0.8 to 1.1 (median 0.95, then) Recommend reading the actual report - they have added more content on how they model demographics they think are testing positive, analysis of Covid in wastewater (shows a trend the same as testing which should confirm we are definitely seeing a decrease in incidence) and you can see the modelling forecasts for beds etc. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Billy Jean King Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 But my question is centring on "when?" Surely NS has brought this up herself among her advisors.Neither she, the organisers or anyone else can answer that. In a nutshell no one knows. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steven W Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 Just now, Billy Jean King said: 2 minutes ago, Steven W said: But my question is centring on "when?" Surely NS has brought this up herself among her advisors. Neither she, the organisers or anyone else can answer that. In a nutshell no one knows. in that case we're fucked 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Billy Jean King Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 Pfizer say they have to pause production so they can make changes that will allow them to scale it up.EU countries complained about their small share of current production so they agreed to scale back production to enable the necessary plans to be put in place to increase it (if that makes sense) 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Billy Jean King Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 in that case we're fuckedWhy ? When it's safe enough to hold mass participation events then we will. It's no different to any other sector affected. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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