Coronavirus (COVID-19)

[Left Back]

17 minutes ago, Todd_is_God said:

Because people told them they could get more from what they were delivering than they were paying for.

Not quite that although it was a factor (along with a 20% boost to bottom line, greedy b*****ds).  They want to make changes to manufacturing to ultimately speed up the process which means decreasing current supply.  No idea what these changes are.

[Wee Bully]

in that case we're fucked

Chill man.

[TheScarf]

Here for the daily run down from @superbigal

[superbigal]

23 hours ago, superbigal said:

 

Todays summary

Now accessed the other home nations for the cases per 100K latest.   These are a little behind the Scottish cases.  England 484.0,   Wales 300.6, Northern Ireland 367.6  all 3 dropping but slower than Scotland.

For interest Portugal 725, Spain 502, Czech 500 are the big hitters.

Scotland peaked at 301.9 for figures 29th Dec to 4th Jan    So our peak is still lower than where the other nations currently stand.

From 12th to 18th January we were down to  200.4

Todays figure for 13th Jan to 19th Jan is 192.9     Another decent single Day drop of 3.74%. Infections have dropped every day (15 days in a row) since the  aforementioned peak.  Total drop is now 36.10%

The cases WILL drop again tomorrow.  The R rate is calculated by myself at 0.8 to 0.9

 Click cases by neighbourhood to see the spread on the geographical map.   I think it is going to be quite difficult to justify keeping the East coast in full lockdown when the "review" is done in 10 days. Currently expect Schools in those areas to be returning after mid term. 

https://public.tableau.com/profile/phs.covid.19#!/vizhome/COVID-19DailyDashboard_15960160643010/Overview

North Lanarkshire  293.5 to 297.3

Renfrewshire  290.3 to 296.5   

Glasgow City    293.6 to 283.0   Glasgow off the top spot

Clackmannanshire 287.2 to 265.8

North Ayrshire 267.2 to 262.7

Inverclyde  271.2 to 250.6

East Ayrshire  262.3 to 256.5

East Dunbartonshire    235.6 to 238.4

South Lanarkshire  247.4 to 232.4

Dumfries & Galloway 243.9 to 228.4  

Falkirk   230.6  to 218.8 

West Dunbartonshire    229.4 to 218.1

South Ayrshire  214.9 to 208.7

Dundee City 202.3 to 204.3

Aberdeen City  212.1 to 191.1

Western Isles  168.4 to 190.9   Barra and South Uist now over 1000. Rising again up to 42 "current" cases

East Renfrewshire  169.6 to 161.2

Stirling   153.9 to 147.5

Perth & Kinross  159.3 to 143.5

West Lothian  132.7 to 139.8

Angus  163.5 to 138.6  Large Daily drop

Fife   152.9 to 138.7   Large Daily drop

Moray   133.6 to 132.5

Scottish  Borders   128.1 to 124.7

Midlothian   119.0 to 121.1

City Of Edinburgh  127.6 to 119.3   

Aberdeenshire  127.5 to 118.7

East Lothian   123.3 to 112.1

Highlands  111.1 to 95.4  Invergordon now dropping rapidly which is good news.

Shetland Islands   96.0 to 74.2

Argyll & Bute   55.9 to 64.1

Orkney Island  35.9 to 35.9

Edited January 22, 2021 by superbigal

[superbigal]

1 minute ago, TheScarf said:

Here for the daily run down from @superbigal

What took me 

[mizfit]

I'm no expert, in fact I know nothing about how big events are planned and how they are insured but I'm wondering if there is an issue at the moment securing any kind of insurance for cancellations due to Covid. You would imagine insurance companies wouldn't be touching them with a barge pole

Can tell you right now most insurers will be looking to explicitly name a pandemic as an exclusion going forward.

[Billy Jean King]

Todays summary

Now accessed the other home nations for the cases per 100K latest.   These are a little behind the Scottish cases.  England 484.0,   Wales 300.6, Northern Ireland 367.6  all 3 dropping but slower than Scotland.

Scotland peaked at 301.9 for figures 29th Dec to 4th Jan    So our peak is still lower than where the other nations currently stand.
From 12th to 18th January we were down to  200.4
Todays figure for 13th Jan to 19th Jan is 192.9     Another decent single Day drop of 3.74%. Infections have dropped every day (15 days in a row) since the  aforementioned peak.  Total drop is now 36.10%
The cases WILL drop again tomorrow.  The R rate is calculated by myself at 0.8 to 09.
 Click cases by neighbourhood to see the spread on the geographical map.   I think it is going to be quite difficult to justify keeping the East coast in full lockdown when the "review" is done in 10 days. Currently expect Schools in those areas to be returning after mid term. 
https://public.tableau.com/profile/phs.covid.19#!/vizhome/COVID-19DailyDashboard_15960160643010/Overview
North Lanarkshire  293.5 to 297.3
Renfrewshire  290.3 to 296.5   
Glasgow City    293.6 to 283.0   Glasgow off the top spot
Clackmannanshire 287.2 to 265.8
North Ayrshire 267.2 to 262.7
Inverclyde  271.2 to 250.6
East Ayrshire  262.3 to 256.5
East Dunbartonshire    235.6 to 238.4
South Lanarkshire  247.4 to 232.4
Dumfries & Galloway 243.9 to 228.4  
Falkirk   230.6  to 218.8 
West Dunbartonshire    229.4 to 218.1
South Ayrshire  214.9 to 208.7
Dundee City 202.3 to 204.3
Aberdeen City  212.1 to 191.1
Western Isles  168.4 to 190.9   Barra and South Uist now over 1000. Rising again up to 42 "current" cases
East Renfrewshire  169.6 to 161.2
Stirling   153.9 to 147.5
Perth & Kinross  159.3 to 143.5
West Lothian  132.7 to 139.8
Angus  163.5 to 138.6
Fife   152.9 to 138.7
Moray   133.6 to 132.5
Scottish  Borders   128.1 to 124.7
Midlothian   119.0 to 121.1
City Of Edinburgh  127.6 to 119.3   
Aberdeenshire  127.5 to 118.7
East Lothian   123.3 to 112.1
Highlands  111.1 to 95.4  Invergordon now dropping rapidly which is good news.
Shetland Islands   96.0 to 74.2
Argyll & Bute   55.9 to 64.1
Orkney Island  35.9 to 35.9

It won't be difficult to justify keeping any area in current restrictions until there is a considerable, sustained drop in hospital / ICU admissions and deaths. Cases per 100k is pretty much irrelevant in isolation. You are not going to see any restrictions eased while the NHS is yet to hit the peak never mind seen sustained easing on resources.

[Rob1885]

Good news about the "R" rate today for sure, hang in there lads and dont read too much of the news. Can be all consuming at times

[Rob1885]

It won't be difficult to justify keeping any area in current restrictions until there is a considerable, sustained drop in hospital / ICU admissions and deaths. Cases per 100k is pretty much irrelevant in isolation. You are not going to see any restrictions eased while the NHS is yet to hit the peak never mind seen sustained easing on resources.

Think the "peak" is happening just now or is early next week. It will be a long and bumpy road but end of this month will see things start to turn I'm sure.

[superbigal]

3 minutes ago, Billy Jean King said:

It won't be difficult to justify keeping any area in current restrictions until there is a considerable, sustained drop in hospital / ICU admissions and deaths. Cases per 100k is pretty much irrelevant in isolation. You are not going to see any restrictions eased while the NHS is yet to hit the peak never mind seen sustained easing on resources.
 

I accept your point but my figures do paint a decent prognosis going forward.  Still 2 weeks till a review.

Have a look at the NHS figures on the East Side trusts.

Edited January 22, 2021 by superbigal

[vikingTON]

1 hour ago, renton said:

So the plan is to vaccinate with first dose somewhere between 1.1 and 1.2 million by middle of February. Is the argument then that the two weeks difference between using 1.2 million doses by January 31st and doing so by February 14th somehow critical?

If you are interested in not burning endless piles of money and punting restrictions into the sea at the earliest possible moment, absolutely.

Wee Jeanne dithering along to retirement in May clearly doesn't though, which is why she should be emptied.

44 minutes ago, Billy Jean King said:

46 minutes ago, Steven W said:

in that case we're fucked

Why ? When it's safe enough to hold mass participation events then we will. It's no different to any other sector affected.

You can't just magic up events after burning through two years' worth of cash across the industry. The live event sector is going to be a shadow of itself unless governments get their finger out of their arse and provide as much as support as they chucked at feckless Scottish football clubs, if not more.

Edited January 22, 2021 by vikingTON

[ICTChris]

There must have been some support for the live event sector?  Surely?

[Inanimate Carbon Rod]

6 minutes ago, virginton said:

If you are interested in not burning endless piles of money and punting restrictions into the sea at the earliest possible moment, absolutely.

Wee Jeanne dithering along to retirement in May clearly doesn't though, which is why she should be emptied.

You can't just magic up events after burning through two years' worth of cash across whole sectors of the industry. The live event sector is going to be a shadow of itself unless governments get their finger out of their arse and provide as much as support as they chucked at feckless Scottish football clubs, if not more.

Aye, can hardly see folk queuing up to be roadies or work in live entertainment logistics after the pandemic. Venues shutting down etc. This summer was going to be a kinda massive lift for the industries in Scotland that rely on these events. That we are not going to allow these concerts and shows etc when we have vaccinated the most at risk and even a good chunk of those with minimal risk for an illness which will at that time be as risky and deadly as seasonal flu is madness. There absolutely will be a legal challenge. 
 

[Distant Doonhamer]

12 minutes ago, Billy Jean King said:

It won't be difficult to justify keeping any area in current restrictions until there is a considerable, sustained drop in hospital / ICU admissions and deaths. Cases per 100k is pretty much irrelevant in isolation. You are not going to see any restrictions eased while the NHS is yet to hit the peak never mind seen sustained easing on resources.
 

While that's true many of us are taking significant reassurance that numbers are coming down. Through time this will lead to decrease in hospital/ICU admissions and deaths. It's a given that no restrictions will be eased with very high hospital numbers but the latest data re case numbers is good news for all that. 

[welshbairn]

23 minutes ago, mizfit said:

 

Can tell you right now most insurers will be looking to explicitly name a pandemic as an exclusion going forward.

 

Thought it was already included in most policies as Force Majeure?

[effeffsee_the2nd]

Thought it was already included in most policies as Force Majeure?

Yes, most policies stopped covering pandemics after sars. c***s that they are

[anotherchance]

9 minutes ago, Distant Doonhamer said:

While that's true many of us are taking significant reassurance that numbers are coming down. Through time this will lead to decrease in hospital/ICU admissions and deaths. It's a given that no restrictions will be eased with very high hospital numbers but the latest data re case numbers is good news for all that. 

Absolutely this - numbers still aren’t great but hopefully we aren’t far off the hospital/ICU/death numbers peaking - and there’s no reason that we should see these sorts of numbers again.

[Aladdin]

Just now, anotherchance said:

Absolutely this - numbers still aren’t great but hopefully we aren’t far off the hospital/ICU/death numbers peaking - and there’s no reason that we should see these sorts of numbers again.

Is it not 5-7 days for symptoms and then a further 7-10 days for hospitalisation, if an infection comes to that?

So, hospitalisations lag around 2 weeks behind infection rates and deaths up to a further week behind that.  You would expect to see improvement from the end of the month.

[101]

26 minutes ago, ICTChris said:

There must have been some support for the live event sector?  Surely?

I don't see why outdoor events events couldn't be allowed maybe they could use rapid flow tests on arrival for an extra bit of piece of mind.

The cases must be lower than at the same time Cheltenham was allowed to go ahead which apparently was the "right decision"

[Steven W]

https://www.biopharma-reporter.com/Article/2020/09/15/Vaxart-First-tablet-COVID-19-vaccine-to-enter-clinical-trials

Obviously a long way off, but a tablet vaccine - now that would be a game changer.

Wonder if the UK have anything on order for this? Or are we just pinning our hopes on Pfizer, AZ, Moderna, Valneva, J&J (and one other that I can't rememeber)