madwullie Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 1 hour ago, Snafu said: Only if you had your mind set on zero COVID and think that the AZ was the only option as a vaccine available to us. Again the vaccine teams especially the Oxford team are updating their vaccine to deal with the SA variant if their test results aren't up to it. It shouldn't be difficult for them. That tweak won't be ready till autumn. What, 8 months? What do we do in the meantime. Tjis shit needs discussed, data needs analysed - no fear porned in the bin and a massive shrug because vaccines always work. Does it not seem strange we're the only country working like this - doing the one jag stuff, insisting the vaccines will be fine while everyone else is saying its risky? Last time we let the tories take us our own way we totally fucked ourselves in March. All I'm saying is there's nothing wrong with being a bit more careful and listening to more opinions than 1. A wildly hyperbolic msm who swing from telling us we've saved the world to proclaiming well be in restrictions till the 2030s 2. Our favoured twitter accounts we follow because they say the things we want to hear and have a similar view on this stuff as we do. -2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Billy Jean King Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 Against which the current vaccines have proven to be effective no?A small bit it reduced to 3.5 to 3. Still way too high. It's all hypothetical for now, we have to see how it pans out. All I'm saying is I can see in the scenarios being banded about where problems could still lie. -1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
effeffsee_the2nd Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 best just stay in lockdown forever then eh 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bairnardo Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 1 minute ago, Billy Jean King said: 8 minutes ago, Bairnardo said: Against which the current vaccines have proven to be effective no? A small bit it reduced to 3.5 to 3. Still way too high. It's all hypothetical for now, we have to see how it pans out. All I'm saying is I can see in the scenarios being banded about where problems could still lie. Are you saying a fully vaccinated population drops R from 4 to 3? 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
effeffsee_the2nd Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 (edited) also what the f**k happened to the massively ramped up rapid testing & treatments ? wheres operation moonhowl from boris now? spring is only 6 weeks away chop chop As for testing, Scotland seems to have been stuck on around 20k per day for months now, Edited February 8, 2021 by effeffsee_the2nd 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
madwullie Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 4 minutes ago, effeffsee_the2nd said: best just stay in lockdown forever then eh Noone is saying this. Its a nonsense argument up there with You're happy to kill my gran so you can go to Benalmadena 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
budmiester1 Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 (edited) 21 minutes ago, Bairnardo said: 23 minutes ago, Billy Jean King said: Forget the SA variant it's a red herring that I never once mentioned. Natural R is 4, that was confirmed last week. That is the figure quoted for the most prevalent variant currently in the UK. Against which the current vaccines have proven to be effective no? Yesterday on the Andrew Marr show, Sarah Gilbert one of the Oxford team was saying that the AZ vaccine will always work due to the fact that it targets the identifiable protein spike of Covid-19, if the virus drops this spike it will die off, it's just how well the vaccine works is down to how much the virus mutates through time. Another thing I read ,on another forum by someone who appears to understand how things work, is that in the SA test of the vaccine was that they administered the second dose at 28 days, now apparently this is the worst time to give the second dose as the vaccines effectiveness drops off after a few days but then starts to regain effectiveness after 28 days and it becomes even more effective as time goes on. I'll see if I can find a link to the story. Found it https://www.thedibb.co.uk/forums/showthread.php?t=1188440 Edited February 8, 2021 by budmiester1 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Billy Jean King Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 Are you saying a fully vaccinated population drops R from 4 to 3?That was the figures last week. The estimated effect on transmission in the admittedly limited testing so far was a reduction of 1. Apparently that was better than they had hoped for as effect on limiting transmission was never the primary intended result, there not those sorts of vaccines. Someone posted this stuff over the weekend. For the avoidance of doubt no way am I saying we should keep restrictions as come spring we will be in a good enough place to start lifting. What I am saying is that I don't find it too hard to envisage a situation come winter where sheer volume of new infections COULD still be high enough to permeate through to a level of hospital strain and deaths that COULD be higher than what authorities might deem acceptable whatever that figure is. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Billy Jean King Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 Yesterday on the Andrew Marr show, Sarah Gilbert one of the Oxford team was saying that the AZ vaccine will always work due to the fact that it targets the identifiable protein spike of Covid-19, if the virus drops this spike it will die off, it's just how well the vaccine works is down to how much the virus mutates through time. Another thing I read ,on another forum by someone who appears to understand how things work, is that in the SA test of the vaccine was that they administered the second dose at 28 days, now apparently this is the worst time to give the second dose as the vaccines effectiveness drops off after a few days but then starts to regain effectiveness after 28 days and it becomes even more effective as time goes on. I'll see if I can find a link to the story. Found it https://www.thedibb.co.uk/forums/showthread.php?t=1188440Of course it works I'm not doubting that and I believe it 100%. That isn't my point. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burnieman Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 The models suggest it could be 5 times that number, no one really knows we need to wait and see. I agree 100% at flu levels it's not an issue. I'm not in that camp at all.We have vaccines that reduce death to almost zero. How do they get to the point of modelling 130k deaths? 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Moonster Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 5 minutes ago, madwullie said: Noone is saying this. Are they not? 15 minutes ago, Elixir said: Where are you going with this 'natural R is 4' talk? What's Rupert Beale talking about then? If he thinks the vaccine won't be enough to stop the NHS being overwhelmed, when will restrictions ever end? Plenty of folk are talking like restrictions are now just part of life. If that doesn't worry you then fair enough, but I can't listen to that sort of chat for another month, I'm stressed up to my eye balls and I need something to aim for, preferably a date that I can go round and hug my fucking mum. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
effeffsee_the2nd Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 1 minute ago, Burnieman said: 16 minutes ago, Billy Jean King said: The models suggest it could be 5 times that number, no one really knows we need to wait and see. I agree 100% at flu levels it's not an issue. I'm not in that camp at all. We have vaccines that reduce death to almost zero. How do they get to the point of modelling 130k deaths? use the same calculation as they daily express weather man? 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GiGi Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 In a week's time they should have vaccinated the vast majority of over 65s and other clinically vulnerable people in the country. If restrictions don't start lifting at that point then it's boot in the pie for the Scot Govt time. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bairnardo Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 That was the figures last week. The estimated effect on transmission in the admittedly limited testing so far was a reduction of 1. Apparently that was better than they had hoped for as effect on limiting transmission was never the primary intended result, there not those sorts of vaccines. Someone posted this stuff over the weekend. For the avoidance of doubt no way am I saying we should keep restrictions as come spring we will be in a good enough place to start lifting. What I am saying is that I don't find it too hard to envisage a situation come winter where sheer volume of new infections COULD still be high enough to permeate through to a level of hospital strain and deaths that COULD be higher than what authorities might deem acceptable whatever that figure is.I wonder what assumptions they are making on the effect of vaccines on transmission to come up with that. Testing showing it reduces transmission by as much as 70% doesnt seem to me like a scenario where we could still have an R of 3 in a highly vaccinated/previously infected population. Admittedly, I'm not a scientist. It just doesnt sound realistic 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ron Aldo Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 That was the figures last week. The estimated effect on transmission in the admittedly limited testing so far was a reduction of 1. Apparently that was better than they had hoped for as effect on limiting transmission was never the primary intended result, there not those sorts of vaccines. Someone posted this stuff over the weekend. For the avoidance of doubt no way am I saying we should keep restrictions as come spring we will be in a good enough place to start lifting. What I am saying is that I don't find it too hard to envisage a situation come winter where sheer volume of new infections COULD still be high enough to permeate through to a level of hospital strain and deaths that COULD be higher than what authorities might deem acceptable whatever that figure is.I don't mean to come across as ignorant and/or thick but if the population is fully vaccinated then what difference does the R number make? If the virus is still spreading but the majority of people aren't getting seriously ill then what difference does it make?I'm just struggling to understand how in a fully vaccinated population the virus could still run rampant and overwhelm the health service. If that's likely to be the case then what's the point in vaccinating? 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Elixir Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 Nice confidence interval there... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bairnardo Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 What's Rupert Beale talking about then? If he thinks the vaccine won't be enough to stop the NHS being overwhelmed, when will restrictions ever end? Plenty of folk are talking like restrictions are now just part of life. If that doesn't worry you then fair enough, but I can't listen to that sort of chat for another month, I'm stressed up to my eye balls and I need something to aim for, preferably a date that I can go round and hug my fucking mum. They have till the end of this month before I start letting folk visit my home and visiting the homes of like minded friends and family. It's a pretty arbitrary selection of date, but that's my cut off. IDGAF if folk find that unacceptable. That's what it's going to be for me personally. Wont be any parties or anything, but I will invite folk in for a cup of tea or round for their dinner from that point onwards. I realise that actually, none of this matters to anyone except me, just a statement of how I see things tbh. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Left Back Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 2 hours ago, Day of the Lords said: The comments section on the online version of that must be fucking nuclear A 30 second scan of the comments proves you correct 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dons_1988 Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 At what point do the public get a say in all this? If we get to a point where the virus might reach uncontrollable levels because there might be a variant out there in future that is resistant to the vaccine and deaths might reach an unacceptable level then it strikes me that the decision to whether or not we are not allowed to live our lives should spread beyond a small number of scientists and politicians. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Left Back Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 1 minute ago, Dons_1988 said: At what point do the public get a say in all this? If we get to a point where the virus might reach uncontrollable levels because there might be a variant out there in future that is resistant to the vaccine and deaths might reach an unacceptable level then it strikes me that the decision to whether or not we are not allowed to live our lives should spread beyond a small number of scientists and politicians. They're called elections. If you don't like government policy you don't vote for that party. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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