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3 minutes ago, trainspotter said:

Come on, ‘Crap for carers’ was an open goal. 

Running out of steam around here and the pot bangers seem to have disappeared. Bodes well for tomorrow.

Yeah, ‘crap for carers’ was so obvious.  This lockdown is having an impact on me...

ETA - I’ve changed it; that’s how much I care!

Edited by Granny Danger
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30 minutes ago, Todd_is_God said:

Not right.

I could produce a graph that says next Tuesday we will have anywhere between 100 and 2,200 deaths. I'd be right, but it's hardly useful.

When projections with such uncertainty are presented to Governments and made public it ties a government's hands.

Even if they know it's bollocks and ignore it as worthless, if anything close to the top end is reached, they would be villified.

The same institution presented the 500,000 deaths info that caused the current lockdown

You think it’s not useful to know that there is a high degree of uncertainty and what the likely ranges might be? 

I think it is useful. For contingency planning and the like. 

Do you think that the estimate of 500,000 deaths in a "do nothing" scenario has been disproved? If so, how? 

It looks to me that it would probably have been right within an order of magnitude, say 100k-1m. That's more useful than thinking it might be like a normal flu or wipe out 50%of the population. 

What would you like to replace this sort of modelling with? Tea leaves, astrology perhaps? 

 

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1 minute ago, coprolite said:

Do you think that the estimate of 500,000 deaths in a "do nothing" scenario has been disproved? If so, how? 

If you genuinely believe that 500,000 would have died had we done nothing then absolutely nothing I say will change that viewpoint.

If the fact that the Dr who delivered that figure has previous for being a mile out coupled with the current figures doesn't convince you then that's your call

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42 minutes ago, accies1874 said:

Well it's been however many weeks but I'm sorry to announce that some asshole in my street has decided that they must now play the trumpet at 8PM on a Thursday. Thankfully no pots and pans yet, but I'm sure tonight's addition will spark the race to outdo each other.

you deserve your misery tbh

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14 minutes ago, Todd_is_God said:

If you genuinely believe that 500,000 would have died had we done nothing then absolutely nothing I say will change that viewpoint.

If the fact that the Dr who delivered that figure has previous for being a mile out coupled with the current figures doesn't convince you then that's your call

The number of 500,000  almost certainly would have been wrong. 

Complex systems are hard to predict. 

It is incredibly difficult for a model to accurately predict an exact future state. They are mostly useful for comparative analyses of different scenarios. 

Tea leaves or astrology? 

 

 

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12 minutes ago, coprolite said:

The number of 500,000  almost certainly would have been wrong. 

Complex systems are hard to predict. 

Maybe so, but with a track record like this maybe you should stop chucking scaremongering figures about.

20200507_203715.jpg

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1 hour ago, ParsJake said:

The 8pm clap seems to have gained in traction in my street, quite a few folk out applauding but they all went in at 8:05pm, so it seems that they can only care for 5 minutes.

An unwelcome first was some wipe setting off a firework at 2 minutes to 8.

The Mrs is on a local Facebook page for our village and a couple of weeks ago someone was complaining that they couldn't find their dog after some c**t fired a shotgun at 8pm.

Edited by Tony Ferrino
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