Coronavirus (COVID-19)

[cyderspaceman]

8 hours ago, hearthammer said:

Ya wee ruski rascal, ye.

Karl Marx was born in Trier, western Germany.

So, whatever you think of his politics, you cannot deny he was a Trier...

Coat, etc.

[ICTChris]

The photographer who was snapping Starmer has clarified that he was talking about getting across the road for something.

Anyway, I’ve found the cure on Serb TV

[welshbairn]

6 hours ago, Theroadlesstravelled said:

I have a family member who was due to move back to England this month.
There is a temporary ban on evictions so they can stay where they are, thankfully.

FTFY

[throbber]

4 minutes ago, ICTChris said:

The photographer who was snapping Starmer has clarified that he was talking about getting across the road for something.

Anyway, I’ve found the cure on Serb TV

See the post I quoted 3 posts up. He still asks if they got what they needed footage wise whilst the applause still goes on which makes his gesture towards thanking the NHS look insincere. 

The second part of your post seems totally legit though, need a bit more thinking outside the box at times like this.

[Paco]

Criticising Neil ferguson's figures is all well and good, but firstly, noone has any idea what would have happened had we not locked down... Its hard to argue that it hasn't been effective in bringing the R0 down and mah have caused us to avoid the scenes in Italy. Secondly, if he was so badly discredited professionally due to models he created in the past being miles out, why on earth would the govt (although yes the are incompetents) have taken them on board in the first place. 

This is pretty much key. The NHS coped with the peak, but only just - by suspending leave, conscripting retired staff, cancelling all non-urgent surgeries and outpatient appointments, turning theatres and scanning rooms into ICU wards, turfing anyone who didn’t strictly need to be in hospital out (thus causing the care home crisis) and building ten temporary hospitals in conference centres and football stadiums. We could barely have lasted a day more before a) the initial social distancing measures and then b) the lockdown without letting the virus overrun the NHS completely. It wasn’t a pain free success and will have caused some significant long-term issues. It’s a very hard thing to put a number on, but without the lockdown all we can know for sure is people would’ve ended up being refused treatment and the total death figure would be much higher.

And I do find it extraordinary that people use the success of a measure like the lockdown to say it’s all an overreaction. The models that grabbed the headlines about half a million deaths were in the event of doing nothing, e.g. pursuing herd immunity. That we’re nowhere near those numbers is literally the result of the lockdown, not because this virus somehow isn’t really a problem. It’s as simple as adding two and two.

[Jacksgranda]

12 hours ago, Granny Danger said:

CRAP FOR THE CARERS!

It would fit in with the way they're treated.

[Fife Saint]

Would any P & Bers be worried ??
https://www.thescottishsun.co.uk/news/5572089/coronavirus-sti-sex-infection-semen-spread/

I know a few who won't have any concerns about this..

[Newbornbairn]

Quote

Some businesses have now learned how operate effectively under Covid-19 with social distancing with an entirely responsible approach to business. The guidance is quite loose, the legislation quite broad, so businesses can interpret themselves what is possible and what is safe to do in this environment.

Tim AllanPresident, Scottish Chambers of Commerce

Quote

The head of the Scottish Chambers of Commerce has defended the decision by many small businesses, such as shops and coffee bars , to re-open despite the lockdown being extended.

He said there were many businesses out there who were dismayed at the first minister's announcement of a further three weeks of restrictions.

But he said it was unfair to say they are taking the law into their own hands.

No you p***k, there's a lockdown. I hope that any coffee shop or cafe that re-opens is closed down immediately and permanently. 

[Jacksgranda]

12 hours ago, Sherrif John Bunnell said:

Who cares about the Tories importing a plane load of useless PPE from Turkey, when we can bang a few saucepans together at 8pm?

Could we not bore a couple of holes in our saucepans for the eyes and donate our pans to our brave front line personnel as PPE?

[Dee Man]

I wonder if any of the fuckwits who were panic buying and stockpiling toilet roll and the like are looking back and wondering WTF they were thinking of. 

[Stellaboz]

1 minute ago, Dee Man said:

I wonder if any of the fuckwits who were panic buying and stockpiling toilet roll and the like are looking back and wondering WTF they were thinking of. 

Probably next to none of them. They've no doubt moved onto the next "in thing" whatever that is. Hopefully drinking dangerous levels of bleach. 

[bendan]

17 minutes ago, Paco said:

And I do find it extraordinary that people use the success of a measure like the lockdown to say it’s all an overreaction. The models that grabbed the headlines about half a million deaths were in the event of doing nothing, e.g. pursuing herd immunity. That we’re nowhere near those numbers is literally the result of the lockdown, not because this virus somehow isn’t really a problem. It’s as simple as adding two and two.

 

I totally get the point that the lockdown has contained things to a manageable level, and I'd say there was no alternative to the blanket approach taken given we needed to buy some time. But we're seven weeks in now, and we ought to know more about where people are getting this, and who they are. With that information, a more nuanced approach should have developed - it's what is happening in other parts of north-western Europe. We are persisting with our one size fits all approach, and the only reasons can be:

a) we don't actually have any information on where and how infections are taking place, and therefore have nothing to base any change of policy on;

b) we do have useful information, but we haven't been able to come up with any workable strategy using it

I don't think we can say the particular form and length of lockdown we chose - not simply 'the lockdown' - has been successful until that point, long in the future, when we know what the full consequences of it have been. If the virus were found to now be circulating almost entirely through connections with hospitals and care homes, the focus should be on breaking those chains and starting up activities that are not connected to them in some way. It's reasonable to say that not doing that, and instead continuing with a blanket lockdown, is an overreaction to the problem. But we're pretty much in the dark. Nobody in government is telling us where the virus is, or how it's being transferred, so we continue with the pretence that sitting on grass in a park is of a similar risk level to hanging around the entrance of the RIE, and we may, just may, be able to differentiate those two in week 8 of our lockdown.

[pandarilla]

I have a family member who was due to move back to England this month but the renters living in their home are now refusing to move out on the agreed date.
There is a temporary ban on evictions so a family of 5 on modest earnings are stuck with nowhere to live and a mortgage to pay.
A taste of socialism in practice where anyone who owns a house is a capitalist pig.

So were they just buying a house from someone else, or did they own two houses and were renting one out? The latter is one of the least socialist politicies imaginable. I have a few pals who do it but they're all decent enough to feel an element of guilt over it. We're all thatchers's children, i suppose.

If they're just buying from someone else then everyone just sits tight. No-one will be moving into their house either.

So the moral of the tale - read some books before you start throwing about socialism as an insult.

[dirty dingus]

Wonder what excuse he had for the trip?

https://www.thenational.scot/news/18435372.tory-donor-fire-500-mile-trip-highlands-lockdown/?ref=twtrec

[Staggie_93]

https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2020/may/07/uk-may-ditch-nhs-contact-tracing-app-for-apple-and-google-model

[Melanius Mullarkey]

3 minutes ago, Staggie_93 said:

https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2020/may/07/uk-may-ditch-nhs-contact-tracing-app-for-apple-and-google-model

The #ladz have had their development money so they can f**k off now.

Sad times when Apple/Google are the more trusted option.

[heedthebaa]

26 minutes ago, Stellaboz said:

Probably next to none of them. They've no doubt moved onto the next "in thing" whatever that is. Hopefully drinking dangerous levels of bleach. 

It’s compost 

[Jacksgranda]

25 minutes ago, bendan said:

I totally get the point that the lockdown has contained things to a manageable level, and I'd say there was no alternative to the blanket approach taken given we needed to buy some time. But we're seven weeks in now, and we ought to know more about where people are getting this, and who they are. With that information, a more nuanced approach should have developed - it's what is happening in other parts of north-western Europe. We are persisting with our one size fits all approach, and the only reasons can be:

a) we don't actually have any information on where and how infections are taking place, and therefore have nothing to base any change of policy on;

b) we do have useful information, but we haven't been able to come up with any workable strategy using it

I don't think we can say the particular form and length of lockdown we chose - not simply 'the lockdown' - has been successful until that point, long in the future, when we know what the full consequences of it have been. If the virus were found to now be circulating almost entirely through connections with hospitals and care homes, the focus should be on breaking those chains and starting up activities that are not connected to them in some way. It's reasonable to say that not doing that, and instead continuing with a blanket lockdown, is an overreaction to the problem. But we're pretty much in the dark. Nobody in government is telling us where the virus is, or how it's being transferred, so we continue with the pretence that sitting on grass in a park is of a similar risk level to hanging around the entrance of the RIE, and we may, just may, be able to differentiate those two in week 8 of our lockdown.

Exactly this.

[dirty dingus]

[renton]

1 hour ago, bendan said:

I totally get the point that the lockdown has contained things to a manageable level, and I'd say there was no alternative to the blanket approach taken given we needed to buy some time. But we're seven weeks in now, and we ought to know more about where people are getting this, and who they are. With that information, a more nuanced approach should have developed - it's what is happening in other parts of north-western Europe. We are persisting with our one size fits all approach, and the only reasons can be:

a) we don't actually have any information on where and how infections are taking place, and therefore have nothing to base any change of policy on;

b) we do have useful information, but we haven't been able to come up with any workable strategy using it

I don't think we can say the particular form and length of lockdown we chose - not simply 'the lockdown' - has been successful until that point, long in the future, when we know what the full consequences of it have been. If the virus were found to now be circulating almost entirely through connections with hospitals and care homes, the focus should be on breaking those chains and starting up activities that are not connected to them in some way. It's reasonable to say that not doing that, and instead continuing with a blanket lockdown, is an overreaction to the problem. But we're pretty much in the dark. Nobody in government is telling us where the virus is, or how it's being transferred, so we continue with the pretence that sitting on grass in a park is of a similar risk level to hanging around the entrance of the RIE, and we may, just may, be able to differentiate those two in week 8 of our lockdown.

I guess the point is that the r value is too high to be able to isolate the virus into geographical clusters that can be suppressed. In other words, the random variance of infections through the population is still too high to be able to differentiate sources of outbreaks.

That's why the lockdown is still in place. one of the former Scotland CMOs reckoned he was told the r value in Scotland was about 0.7 and needed to go below 0.5 to be able to move into TTI with a view to mitigating the virus and lower than that to suppress it.

We know that Care Homes are pretty much the single dominant vector now, but those are also contained spaces that it should be possible to shield (not that this is any use to residents in infected homes). If you use the NRS numbers to split out hospital deaths from the general populace vs those from care homes, you find the latter is basically flat over three weeks whereas the former is falling now. Assuming a logarithmic  trend you are looking at another month before hospital deaths is down in low, double digits. So three more weeks to get the r value down to an acceptable level. 

Edited May 8, 2020 by renton