Todd_is_God Posted May 14, 2020 Share Posted May 14, 2020 (edited) 8 minutes ago, pandarilla said: I've just read an article about germany's r number rising to above 1. Is that not the case? Did it rise above 1? Yes, for about two days. You can see here how it's bounced around between about 0.7 and 1.1 in the 3 and a bit weeks since restrictions were eased. The point is most uk media are reporting Germany's easing to have been a disatrous mistake which has seen cases soar. When that isn't the truth. I don't know why they feel they need to do this. Edited May 14, 2020 by Todd_is_God 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Turkmenbashi Posted May 14, 2020 Share Posted May 14, 2020 Belgian government have confirmed I can get a badly needed hair cut on Monday. Only by appointment, with a face mask and with social distancing observed where possible. Though I don't have a face mask, which are supposed to be available from railway station snack vending machines, but aren't. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Granny Danger Posted May 14, 2020 Share Posted May 14, 2020 4 minutes ago, bendan said: Yes, would mean the 500,000 deaths figure for UK was not far off reality. That’s 50,000 in Scotland and 45,000 of them would be old folk. A price worth paying surely. Cheers Todd_is God. Granny Danger 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coprolite Posted May 14, 2020 Share Posted May 14, 2020 28 minutes ago, bendan said: The reporting has been shockingly poor, and it now gets amplified by social media. Like you say, most people seem to think Germany is going back to lockdown with rising numbers. The Scottish Government has been playing catch up the whole time. There's not an inkling of any proactive strategy. I'm not sure the population at large are at any point going to grasp the relative risk they face. The very old don't seem to get how incredibly dangerous it is for them and younger adults grossly exaggerate the risk. I've got someone on Facebook who posted a photo of people going to work in London who looked mostly in their twenties and thirties, and he said 'many of these people will die'. Statistically, that's a massive understatement. The long term mortality rate is 100%. 9 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bendan Posted May 14, 2020 Share Posted May 14, 2020 1 minute ago, Granny Danger said: That’s 50,000 in Scotland and 45,000 of them would be old folk. A price worth paying surely. Cheers Todd_is God. Granny Danger No, I don't think it is, but the current method seems to be killing them anyway while the rest of us twiddle our thumbs. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bendan Posted May 14, 2020 Share Posted May 14, 2020 2 minutes ago, coprolite said: Statistically, that's a massive understatement. The long term mortality rate is 100%. Absolutely true, and yet it's suddenly entirely unacceptable to the majority of people. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Turkmenbashi Posted May 14, 2020 Share Posted May 14, 2020 10 minutes ago, Granny Danger said: That’s 50,000 in Scotland and 45,000 of them would be old folk. A price worth paying surely. Cheers Todd_is God. Granny Danger Does these numbers include you? 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Todd_is_God Posted May 14, 2020 Share Posted May 14, 2020 (edited) 10 minutes ago, bendan said: Absolutely true, and yet it's suddenly entirely unacceptable to the majority of people. Given that economic depression and not being able to have fun or see family and friends is seen as worth it by some to prevent 150 deaths per day over the course of a year maybe rising to 166 this should hardly be surprising. Edited May 14, 2020 by Todd_is_God -2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coprolite Posted May 14, 2020 Share Posted May 14, 2020 For anyone who feels that a massive recession and horrific disease are not enough misery, the BBC is starting to make Eastenders again. Hooray! Trump needs to force the liberal snowflakes back to work now so that I can get to see Fargo s4. MAGA. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Melanius Mullarkey Posted May 14, 2020 Share Posted May 14, 2020 11 minutes ago, Turkmenbashi said: Does these numbers include you? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayrmad Posted May 14, 2020 Share Posted May 14, 2020 9 minutes ago, Todd_is_God said: Given that economic depression and not being able to have fun or see family and friends is seen as worth it by some to prevent 150 deaths per day over the course of a year maybe rising to 166 this should hardly be surprising. I think it was watching 1500 extra deaths a day even with a lockdown that caused a reaction. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Todd_is_God Posted May 14, 2020 Share Posted May 14, 2020 12 minutes ago, ayrmad said: I think it was watching 1500 extra deaths a day even with a lockdown that caused a reaction. I don't know why you are using a UK figure to make your point here, other than because it's a bigger number. You should work for a paper 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
welshbairn Posted May 14, 2020 Share Posted May 14, 2020 22 minutes ago, coprolite said: For anyone who feels that a massive recession and horrific disease are not enough misery, the BBC is starting to make Eastenders again. Hooray! Trump needs to force the liberal snowflakes back to work now so that I can get to see Fargo s4. MAGA. Can't wait! 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Granny Danger Posted May 14, 2020 Share Posted May 14, 2020 39 minutes ago, Turkmenbashi said: Does these numbers include you? It could, it could also include you. We won’t know until we know. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NotThePars Posted May 14, 2020 Share Posted May 14, 2020 3 hours ago, welshbairn said: Loads of people from here go on all inclusive holidays to identikit hotels that could be anywhere in the world, and never leave. It's the ones who pay double to go to one in Mexico rather than Spain who get me. Aye but the gear in Mexico is probably worth the extra expense 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wee Willie Posted May 14, 2020 Share Posted May 14, 2020 58 minutes ago, Granny Danger said: That’s 50,000 in Scotland and 45,000 of them would be old folk. A price worth paying surely. Cheers Todd_is God. Granny Danger ffs 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayrmad Posted May 14, 2020 Share Posted May 14, 2020 22 minutes ago, Todd_is_God said: I don't know why you are using a UK figure to make your point here, other than because it's a bigger number. You should work for a paper You're the one taking figures for a few weeks and spreading them over a year. What number of excess deaths per day is acceptable to you in a UK or Scotland only context without spreading them out over a year or whichever time unit you require to make it look small? 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beefybake Posted May 14, 2020 Share Posted May 14, 2020 (edited) 36 minutes ago, Todd_is_God said: I don't know why you are using a UK figure to make your point here, other than because it's a bigger number. You should work for a paper Who do you work for ? You sound like a resurrection of a certain malky. Edited May 14, 2020 by beefybake 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Todd_is_God Posted May 14, 2020 Share Posted May 14, 2020 (edited) 13 minutes ago, ayrmad said: You're the one taking figures for a few weeks and spreading them over a year. What number of excess deaths per day is acceptable to you in a UK or Scotland only context without spreading them out over a year or whichever time unit you require to make it look small? That's generally how daily averages over a year work. I said weeks ago a 10% increase was acceptable. If we didn't have a single newsworthy cause, a 10% increase wouldn't raise many eyebrows. On a day to day basis that is about166 per day in Scotland up from the usual 151. It's not about making it look small. It's about being realistic. The headline making death numbers will take place over around 6-8 weeks of the year as a whole. The economic impact of shutting everything down will resonate for years. Both the Scottish and UK governments have had plenty time to work on finding a way out. It's time to start putting those ways out in motion. Edited May 14, 2020 by Todd_is_God 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Todd_is_God Posted May 14, 2020 Share Posted May 14, 2020 3 minutes ago, beefybake said: Who do you work for ? You sound like a resurrection of a certain malky. Who do you work for? 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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