Coronavirus (COVID-19)

[Sergeant Wilson]

17 minutes ago, ICTChris said:

 

The guy who wrote the report specifically says it isn’t a prediction but is a possibility.

SAGE said back in March that they expected countries who locked down hard to experience a significant second wave later in the year. This was before the U.K. went into lockdown.

 

We'll be alright then.

[Todd_is_God]

30 minutes ago, Sergeant Wilson said:

We'll be alright then.

Given how poorly the whole thing was handled in the beginning, i struggle to see any scenario where it could be five times worse, even without considering people are more aware of how to reduce the risk.

Edited July 14, 2020 by Todd_is_God

[Paco]

I don’t expect another lockdown albeit I do think things will get worse through the winter.

We know a lot more about the virus now. Younger people are mostly absolutely fine, only very small numbers need medical care. Shockingly it’s bad if we expose old or sick people to it. Another completely unforeseen revelation is that big events and crowded bars/restaurants/trains are dangerous. Who’d have thought it?

I expect measures to come into place - along the lines of the stop/start of hospitality, suspension of crowds at sport events, the reintroduction of stricter border control, work from home if you can and presumably restrictions on social interactions. But social distancing, face masks, protection of care homes and shielding of the vulnerable, combined with Test & Protect identifying local clusters in schools/workplaces/particular areas, should ultimately be all that’s required. If we look at Spain for example not letting kids out the house for three months, with what we know now that was completely pointless.

The most significant problems the UK should face is a) what to do with the hospitality industry and b) preventing the NHS becoming the Covid Health Service. The answer to a) is relatively simple if the UK Gov has the will and means (a longer-term furlough, suspension of rents and loan payments) but simultaneously protecting the sick/vulnerable/elderly who are inevitably in hospital anyway while dealing with large numbers of patients with a contagious virus in the same building is a very, very hard thing to do. I fear we’ll end up where we are now with dozens of key services abandoned out of fear.

A second national lockdown is a failure of policy. It was necessary first time, it shouldn’t be needed again.

Probably.

[Steve_Wilkos]

Where is best to get a mask from?

[Todd_is_God]

We can't afford to shut down hospitality over winter, furlough or no furlough. The job losses from the loss of the festive period would be devastating, and the long term impact of that much worse than anything Covid can throw at us.

You say yourself that young people are mostly unaffected, and that we know more about the virus than before. We have to find a way to keep things open. If masks, 1m distancing and perspex screens allow a middle ground then so be it.

The 5 year average number of flu deaths in the UK is apparantly 17,000 (with quite a large range between 28,000 & 1,000). The measures to limit covid transmission coupled with a bigger uptake in flu vaccinations should help reduce this number, lessening the impact of covid.

If we get through winter with 17,000 ish combined flu & covid-19 deaths then that would, statistically, be perfectly normal. And should be communicated as such.

[Michael W]

Shutting down hospitality is however inevitable to prevent the spread of the disease. The young will be fine mostly, yes, but what happens when they go and see granny and their aunt with a myriad of health conditions at Christmas and are asymptomatic, but carrying the virus? And of course people travel over Christmas and you risk a wide spread of the virus. 

We should give the hospitality industry every opportunity to open albeit with restrictions in place where necessary. However if a cluster becomes apparent, they need to be shut down to curtail the spread, with other localised measures if necessary too. I'd prefer we didn't need to go down that route, but we cannot have the virus spreading all over the UK again the way it did last time. You can control a cluster; a country-wide outbreak cannot be controlled and will need a disastrous second lockdown. 

[Bairnardo]

How the f**k is it even remotely possible for a second wave to be worse unless all measures are abandoned, everyone forgets the last few months, the steroid recently found to reduce death rates by a third suddenly disappears and track and trace completely fails?

Presumably this is the "Do nothing" part of the risk assessment, but since there will be measures already in place that remain all the way through winter aswell as public consciousness, the "Do nothing" part is totally irrelevant in reporting to the public terms.

[D.A.F.C]

My worry is that we seem to be on the path to reopening everything and getting large crowds at pretty much the start of winter.

As said though a large amount of deaths will be a total failure from the government and local planning.

A quick total lockdown round a large area of several countries and a total ban on travel would probably be the most effective but we will be driven by the (money) science again probably.

Really hope there's no repeat but can't see why it won't happen when we have such buffoons running things down south.

[coprolite]

Bbc news is literally a red-top.  Sensationalist headline to grab readers. That's all. 

[welshbairn]

27 minutes ago, Steve_Wilkos said:

Where is best to get a mask from?

I've got a load of the standard paper disposable medical ones from Boots, but my sister just bought me some washable cloth ones and they're a lot comfier to wear.

https://www.ffsbshop.co.uk/

[Steve_Wilkos]

I've got a load of the standard paper disposable medical ones from Boots, but my sister just bought me some washable cloth ones and they're a lot comfier to wear.
https://www.ffsbshop.co.uk/

Many thanks

[Detournement]

There is no chance of an economic recovery with distancing and masks. 

We are looking at an absolute disaster of a decade with endless austerity. 

[Todd_is_God]

20 minutes ago, Michael W said:

Shutting down hospitality is however inevitable to prevent the spread of the disease. The young will be fine mostly, yes, but what happens when they go and see granny and their aunt with a myriad of health conditions at Christmas and are asymptomatic, but carrying the virus? And of course people travel over Christmas and you risk a wide spread of the virus. 

What happens when they do that any other year when ill? We need perspective - respiratory deaths in general increase in winter. If the government choose to report covid deaths daily this year (and place restrictions on people again on the back of them), then this time they must do so with a reference to how this compares to a normal year (particularly with seasonal flu, which, as far as I can see, never has it's death figures published). The "any is too many" line needs a sense of relativity.

It's believed transmission from asymotomatic carriers is low. You would hope that maintaining a little distance from at risk people, or maybe even wearing a mask when visiting, would limit the possibility of spread to close to zero. Is that ideal? No. But if it allows society to function then it is a small price to pay.

A symptomatic person visiting would have themselves to blame.

[DeeTillEhDeh]

There is no chance of an economic recovery with distancing and masks. 
We are looking at an absolute disaster of a decade with endless austerity. 

And without it what do you think will happen?

[Newbornbairn]

Kilmarnock fans don't need masks -

 

[Detournement]

2 minutes ago, DeeTillEhDeh said:

20 minutes ago, Detournement said:

There is no chance of an economic recovery with distancing and masks. 
We are looking at an absolute disaster of a decade with endless austerity. 

And without it what do you think will happen?

Well we already know that without masks the virus went down to less than one death a day. 

[Newbornbairn]

2 minutes ago, Detournement said:

Well we already know that without masks the virus went down to less than one death a day. 

Do you think the majority of the country sitting locked inside had anything to do with that?

[Detournement]

1 minute ago, NewBornBairn said:

Do you think the majority of the country sitting locked inside had anything to do with that?

Most people weren't sitting locked inside during June.

https://www.theguardian.com/education/2020/jul/13/deaths-special-needs-children-kent-raise-concerns-over-school-closures

This is just a iota of the impact of lockdown. We have chosen to protect over 60s who can easily be shielded in their own homes or care homes at the expense of the young. 

[Lurkst]

On 12/07/2020 at 11:19, peasy23 said:

Gove has just said on the Marr show this morning that they won't be made compulsory in shops in England.

 

"Mask wearing in shops and enclosed spaces will be encouraged but won't be mandatory."

 

On 12/07/2020 at 11:34, Lurkst said:

Expect mask wearing to be mandated by the weekend then.

 

Ok so I was out by a few days...

 

[D.A.F.C]