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Leaked Public Health England document shows that they expect 80% of the population to get the virus within the next year, which would mean around 7/8 million would need hospital treatment. 
Well aware this is how herd immunity works but it sounds utterly mental to see it written out like that. If the best tactic is to just accept that over a million will die (if the figures are to be believed) then f**k me. 


“As many as” still suggests it’s a worse case scenario though.
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On the 80% of the UK will get it thing - the expert Colin Murray had on 5 Live this evening, Dr Chris Smith, said similar.

Therefore if the predicted 10-15% get the more serious strain - possibly needing ventilators, that's a mere 5-8 million people potentially needing access to one of Britain's 4,500 ventilators.

A conservatively low 1% fatality rate means we lose somewhere around the population of Sheffield at 580,000.  Which makes it a bit like Threads.

Edited by tarapoa
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1 minute ago, tarapoa said:

On the 80% of the UK will get it thing - the expert Colin Murray had on 5 Live this evening said similar.

Therefore if the predicted 10-15% get the more serious strain - possibly needing ventilators, that's a mere 5-8 million people potentially needing access to one of Britain's 4,500 ventilators.

A conservatively low 1% fatality rate means we lose somewhere around the population of Sheffield at 580,000.  Which makes it a bit like Threads.

I hope it doesn't happen when @throbberis on holiday there.

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On the 80% of the UK will get it thing - the expert Colin Murray had on 5 Live this evening, Dr Chris Smith, said similar.
Therefore if the predicted 10-15% get the more serious strain - possibly needing ventilators, that's a mere 5-8 million people potentially needing access to one of Britain's 4,500 ventilators.
A conservatively low 1% fatality rate means we lose somewhere around the population of Sheffield at 580,000.  Which makes it a bit like Threads.

It’s not correct that all those who are seriously unwell will need a ventilator. The numbers are scary though.
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2 minutes ago, Distant Doonhamer said:


It’s not correct that all those who are seriously unwell will need a ventilator. The numbers are scary though.

Aye, BBC News saying 5% likely to need intensive care - so that's only 2.5 million. 

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36 minutes ago, Alert Mongoose said:

I’m currently moving house and there is about 2 1/2 weeks between moving out and moving into the new house.  The mother in law offered to let us move in for the interim which was just about bearable. Now work have told us to work from home - this is going to be a long couple of weeks...

Couple of weeks? I like your optimism 

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On the 80% of the UK will get it thing - the expert Colin Murray had on 5 Live this evening, Dr Chris Smith, said similar.
Therefore if the predicted 10-15% get the more serious strain - possibly needing ventilators, that's a mere 5-8 million people potentially needing access to one of Britain's 4,500 ventilators.
A conservatively low 1% fatality rate means we lose somewhere around the population of Sheffield at 580,000.  Which makes it a bit like Threads.


Bugger! Think there are 4/5 cases already in Sheffield of which 2 have been confirmed in Parson Cross end of Sheffield where I live. So I’m definitely doomed for death!
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2 hours ago, DigOutYourSoul said:

So Ireland have shut pubs and restaurants until the end of March after a second death, and we’re still here with everyone operating as normal because we Boris thinks mass genocide is the answer.

But are they still going to work ?

If so, the pub closure thing is a mere token gesture and ultimately totally pointless.

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