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Coronavirus (COVID-19)


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6 hours ago, welshbairn said:

Please don't share them.

The computer models being used to inform UK policy on COVID-19 predicted around 85,000 deaths for Sweden. There were only around 5,000 in reality. Open and inquiring minds are going to want to know why even if it messes up the narrative being peddled by Newsnight and The Guardian.

 

 

Edited by LongTimeLurker
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6 hours ago, Todd_is_God said:

More anti lockdown protests in Italy. This time in Rome.

Again, as in Naples, the police appear to be sympathetic to the protesters, and join with them.

Over here, we shrug our shoulders and happily plan on voting for those imposing the pointless, yet damaging, measures, because "what can you do"

Who will you be voting for next time Todd?

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1 hour ago, LongTimeLurker said:

The computer models being used to inform UK policy on COVID-19 predicted around 85,000 deaths for Sweden.

Was that assuming no behavioural changes like working from home, social distancing etc?

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Partly that no doubt but overestimating the IFR and getting its age profile incorrect also appears to have been a big part of it as well. The latter part appears to be why the Swedes thought the Imperial College model was off and didn't base their strategy around its findings. Personally think the more interesting part of the equation at the moment is why they have no discernible second wave on COVID-19 related deaths unlike the western European countries that imposed drastic lockdowns by legal compulsion rather than simply issuing "strong advice" with clear and consistent messaging from health professionals rather than limelight loving politicians.

Edited by LongTimeLurker
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7 hours ago, tamthebam said:

Re Edinburgh's graph 

When did the students return to the 4 unis in this city? The unis which have a fair proportion of students from England, coming from such Covid free areas as Manchester...

 

14th September, which I think is the same as the Glasgow Unis as wel. Though Dundee Uni went back a week or two later. Which may explain why it took off a bit later.

If you look down the page you you can look at the age demographics. The 15-19 trend starts to shoot up nearly vertically after the 14th, And peaks around the 26th September, after which it starts to decrease (presumably driven by the 18-19 year olds at Uni, rather than the 15 year olds) 

The Uni clusters do seem to be tailing off, but if you look at the next age groups up, you can see that they were showing some increases around1st September, and then really take off a week or two after the Unis went back, probably as the students passed it out into the general population. So it seems likely we are only now just getting away from the Uni effect in places like Edinburgh.

This of course us all based on symptomatic testing. 

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13 minutes ago, Tynierose said:

That's been a suspicion for months, so in essence we either vaccinate every few months, and or get on with life whilst maintaining hand hygiene, masks etc.

Society cannot continue long term with restrictions all the time, partial lockdowns etc.  

Do you see us wearing masks etc forever more? Surely if covid follows the trend of h1 viruses it will become less harmful over time due to the virus mutating? 

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7 hours ago, Todd_is_God said:

More anti lockdown protests in Italy. This time in Rome.

Again, as in Naples, the police appear to be sympathetic to the protesters, and join with them.

Over here, we shrug our shoulders and happily plan on voting for those imposing the pointless, yet damaging, measures, because "what can you do"

I’m happy to vote for someone else. Point me to the good guys of politics.

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48 minutes ago, Paco said:

https://www.ft.com/content/f75418a9-9ef5-4684-9222-758635e906b1

This is, potentially, an absolute disaster and the worst news we could’ve asked for heading into winter. Antibodies may only last a few months, and weaken over time.

More research needed certainly but it isn’t good news at any rate.

Anywhere that can be read in front of a paywall that you know? 

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7 hours ago, madwullie said:

Don't forget their health care system succeeded by executing the elderly infected in their care home beds and banning all hospital treatment for anyone that was a bit too fat. Definitely something worth putting on a pedastel. 

https://www.folkhalsomyndigheten.se/the-public-health-agency-of-sweden/communicable-disease-control/covid-19/

All for denying NHS treatment to disgusting fatties tbh. 

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5 minutes ago, Inanimate Carbon Rod said:

Do you see us wearing masks etc forever more? Surely if covid follows the trend of h1 viruses it will become less harmful over time due to the virus mutating? 

I'd hope not, but I'm sure a lot of people will do.  Maybe not a terrible idea as this pandemic has highlighted how minging a lot of the great British public are.

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