Coronavirus (COVID-19)

[Honest_Man#1]

3 minutes ago, DeeTillEhDeh said:

You still didn't quote me saying schools were safe.

Still waiting.

I don’t recall saying that you said schools were safe. Happy for you to quote me if I did.

[DeeTillEhDeh]

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.bbc.co.uk/news/amp/health-54937486
Full article is here.
https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/13november2020#age-analysis-of-the-number-of-people-in-england-who-had-covid-19
ONS study that is one or the article sources is here.
It should be noted from the article and ONS study that:
1) they are careful to note that how much transmission is from the classroom is "unproven and difficult to establish" and further that "The review made clear it was not possible to separate contacts in school from contacts around school including travelling to and from, and socialising afterwards."
2) That there was "significant educational, developmental and mental health harms from schools being closed" 
3) That the primary school age positivity rates seem to have plateaued at a lower level, earlier than secondary school kids which seems consistent with earlier data that younger children don't seem to catch it as much.
4) there appears to be no greater risk of catching it as a school teacher as opposed to any other adult group.
5) That there was signs of increase in prevelance in the general population before the schools went back.
Taken together there is enough wiggle room in those conclusions for policy makers to keep the schools going. They can point to increased care in and around schools to avoid mixing - in Scotland tier 3 areas older age kids (16 and over?) Need to wear masks now in classrooms. As well as pointing out that other sectors of society are also responsible and that they can modify those to push down infections.
point 2 is a bit of a strawman, since up here at least the idea would be to use blended learning, but obviously there are doubts as to how effectively the syllabus can be delivered under that mode, and whether you avoid those severe issues highlighted in the report.
from the ONS data, positivity rates in schools have dropped since the English half term, it will be interesting to see if that starts to creep up in the next week again, or whether it has broken enough infection chains to make it harder to re-establish in short time frames.
the idea seems to be that they can find enough R value drops elsewhere to get the virus under control without disrupting the schools. They might not be wrong: R is supposedly, probablistically under 1 now, in Scotland, and test positivity has been slowly dropping to 5.7% in the last day or so. Although several LAs you can clearly see a reduction in decay, and even a rise in the second week of November. 
it does seem likely that they could go to blended learning and break some of the infection chains sooner. Again though, household mixing rules were more severe in large parts of Scotland for longer, so it may be that breaking the chains there is effective enough, if not optimal from a purely public health point of view.
having said that, I do think they should have put the 16+ age groups into blended learning at least until January. They should have been planning for it as soon as it became obvious how easy it was spreading through Uni halls, and they should have put that plan in place over the October break. I was disappointed but not surprised that they didn't. The rest of the school cohort you could leave unaffected and I think, based on the data, that you would reduce the majority of risk.
Blended learning is one of two levers they have left. The other is retail.  Blended learning they would need to roll out nationally. Given that there are real concerns that blended learning would have negative  effects on children's life chances, and given that Covid seems to have a far worse preveleance in higher deprivation areas, and that there is already an educational bias in terms of outcomes vs deprivation, then doing blended learning in the tier system would be likely to only further bake in that bias.
Retail you can modify by tier, and that's basically the tier 4 lever. I am concerned that, despite large changes in shopping behaviour towards online retail, that as we enter into the busiest shopping period of the year, the liklihood of driving large case loads in that sector becomes inevitable unless you can drive base case loads down enough to weather that effect. Given you'd probably need to stay in tier 4 for at least a couple of weeks we are getting near to the point where you can no longer deploy tier 4 without absolutely fucking the retail sector over.
so, tl;dr? I still don't think they should shut schools, and I don't think blended learning is necessary across all age groups. I do think it is desirable for the older groups to go into blended learning, yet they are the cohorts with the most to lose, given they are at the sharp end of their school education. We seem to have a precarious hold on the virus but that won't last unless we do something else quickly to weather Christmas. So it's either modify the schools now, or shut retail for a couple of weeks or both, unless they can get mass testing up here fast, like in Liverpool to find and remove infections quickly.

Personally I'm not convinced by blended learning - like it or not there won't be a substantial difference because pupils will still be mixing in corridors and social areas.

I am more inclined now that if the worst comes to the worst that schools should be closed but not a blanket closure - only those in the worst affected areas and having some sort of provision for the more vulnerable.

I can't talk for other subjects, but we have managed to cover a lot of work in the time we've been back with our senior pupils, particularly with practical subjects.

My biggest gripe right now is waiting on SQA to tell us how we will provide estimates in our curricular area including the necessary assessment materials. If we can get that we could have a substantial amount of assessment under our belts.

[DeeTillEhDeh]

They can fire stuff like this in the bin. They can't decide it's definitely hospitality etc that is the issue because people went out in the previous 7 days, but that it is unproven and difficult to apply the same criteria to a scenario where a person goes to the same place for 5 days in the same time frame.
It staggers me that not only do they think it's ok to peddle pish like that, but that journalists and large swathes of the public accept it.
Inconsistancies like that could be overlooked if A) the restrictions in place were having an obvious positive effect, and B) we were talking about a month's worth of them, not about to enter the 9th month with the end not in sight anytime soon.
 

The reality is they can't prove with certainty where transmission is happening - I think it may be from a wide range of sources.

[vikingTON]

5 hours ago, renton said:

 

The point here is to find enough R everywhere else to keep the schools going, without over loading hospitals and stopping the oldies dying in droves again. Household mixing does drive cases, hospitality does drive cases, schools do drive cases, so its a question of finding the optimal mix of restrictions. It's not been unsuccessful but my concern is how tentative the progress is. I do think blended learning for the older cohorts over December at least is the way to go to add some margin to the R reduction.

Erm it quite clearly has been unsuccessful - given that we've gone from relatively few restrictions to the largest population centre in the country being on the brink of tier 4 restrictions in the space of four months.

The idea that governments can rummage around trying to ban everything else to keep R below 1 when schools alone are contributing 0.5 of that is absolute nonsense that has been utterly discredited.

Edited November 14, 2020 by vikingTON

[Honest_Man#1]

16 minutes ago, DeeTillEhDeh said:

6 hours ago, Todd_is_God said:

They can fire stuff like this in the bin. They can't decide it's definitely hospitality etc that is the issue because people went out in the previous 7 days, but that it is unproven and difficult to apply the same criteria to a scenario where a person goes to the same place for 5 days in the same time frame.
It staggers me that not only do they think it's ok to peddle pish like that, but that journalists and large swathes of the public accept it.
Inconsistancies like that could be overlooked if A) the restrictions in place were having an obvious positive effect, and B) we were talking about a month's worth of them, not about to enter the 9th month with the end not in sight anytime soon.
 

The reality is they can't prove with certainty where transmission is happening - I think it may be from a wide range of sources.

 

[DeeTillEhDeh]

 

 

Reading isn't your strong point.  

 

 

I said "can't prove with certainty" - I was also replying about hospitality if you bothered to read.

 

 

[Honest_Man#1]

2 minutes ago, DeeTillEhDeh said:

Reading isn't your strong point.

 

I said "can't prove with certainty" - I was also replying about hospitality if you bothered to read.

You can claim whatever you like, your position is clear and you’re not willing to change it in the face of overwhelming evidence against it.

Your attempts to come across as a deep thinker when you say ‘I think transmission comes from a wide range of sources’ as a defence of schools, as you’ve done several times, is also a great laugh. It’s blatantly obvious to everyone that it comes from a range of places, it’s utterly moronic to think any different - however that doesn’t stop us looking at the worst of these sources, now overwhelmingly looking like schools.

[DeeTillEhDeh]

You can claim whatever you like, your position is clear and you’re not willing to change it in the face of overwhelming evidence against it.
Your attempts to come across as a deep thinker when you say ‘I think transmission comes from a wide range of sources’ as a defence of schools, as you’ve done several times, is also a great laugh. It’s blatantly obvious to everyone that it comes from a range of places, it’s utterly moronic to think any different - however that doesn’t stop us looking at the worst of these sources, now overwhelmingly looking like schools.

Jesus wept.

Okay - my reply to Todd was actually agreeing with him that you could not prove with certainty that hospitality was to blame - that clearly there were a wide variety of factors driving infections.

You sort of prove my point by bringing schools into that conversation - when I made no reference either way.

It's you and your wee bullying clique that won't shift and pounces on anyone that dares have different viewpoint to their agenda.

It's continually been alleged by certain individuals that posters like me are saying schools are safe - I repeat I am certainly not - of course it's a risk.

If you also bothered to read you'd know that I was very apprehensive about schools going back - it's only being back that my worst fears have been allayed.

You would also know, if you bothered to read, that I'm not particularly a fan of blended learning - I've consistently said that if it happens so be it but that my preference would actually be school closures in the worst affected areas.

[Rob1885]

Jesus wept.

Okay - my reply to Todd was actually agreeing with him that you could not prove with certainty that hospitality was to blame - that clearly there were a wide variety of factors driving infections.

You sort of prove my point by bringing schools into that conversation - when I made no reference either way.

It's you and your wee bullying clique that won't shift and pounces on anyone that dares have different viewpoint to their agenda.

It's continually been alleged by certain individuals that posters like me are saying schools are safe - I repeat I am certainly not - of course it's a risk.

If you also bothered to read you'd know that I was very apprehensive about schools going back - it's only being back that my worst fears have been allayed.

You would also know, if you bothered to read, that I'm not particularly a fan of blended learning - I've consistently said that if it happens so be it but that my preference would actually be school closures in the worst affected areas.

Bullying clique hahahaha jesus wept

[Bairnardo]

It's becoming clear in recent times that Renton is the only person worth reading on the schools subject.

[DeeTillEhDeh]

Bullying clique hahahaha jesus wept

You clearly haven't been paying attention.

[Rob1885]

You clearly haven't been paying attention.

In what sense?

[welshbairn]

8 minutes ago, Bairnardo said:

It's becoming clear in recent times that Renton is the only person worth reading on the schools subject.

It's become like a debating chamber between the Free Church of Scotland and the Free Presbyterian Church of Scotland, they've forgotten what they disagree about.  It's come down to each accusing the other side of saying something they deny saying.

[Mark Connolly]

1 hour ago, welshbairn said:

It's become like a debating chamber between the Free Church of Scotland and the Free Presbyterian Church of Scotland, they've forgotten what they disagree about.  It's come down to each accusing the other side of saying something they deny saying.

Prove it.

[renton]

3 hours ago, virginton said:

Erm it quite clearly has been unsuccessful - given that we've gone from relatively few restrictions to the largest population centre in the country being on the brink of tier 4 restrictions in the space of four months.

The idea that governments can rummage around trying to ban everything else to keep R below 1 when schools alone are contributing 0.5 of that is absolute nonsense that has been utterly discredited.

Wasn't the confidence interval on that 0.5 number ridiculously wide? Or have they updated the numbers since I last saw that publication? Genuine question. 

The median R number is around 0.95 as of last week. We have some tentative grip on the 2nd wave. The coming week, three weeks after the schools went back will give us an idea of whether it is possible to keep current restrictions, and schools open and keep the R value down below 1. It may not be, and at that point they have two options: national blended learning or tier 4 for some unlucky b*****ds.

As to your first paragraph. I suppose the thought experiment is this: If you keep the schools shut entirely all through the summer to now, but opened up everything else in the same time frames as it actually did, do you believe cases would have stayed non exponential, scraping along in the 1s and 2s? Would it have gone exponential but to some degree less than currently? Or would it have ended up in exactly the same place as now?

I suspect the middle case is true. The evidence  paper published at the time suggested that R tipped back above 1, 3 weeks after hospitality and household mixing came back, and the week before schools came back. If you look at the graphs on a log scale, you can much more clearly see it. It suggests that an unknown number of cases were so deeply seeded widely in the community that as soon as we opened anything, we were going to tip back into a bad place.

That to me is the worrying part. Short of staying in the original phase 1 for much longer, or the existence in the Summer of mass testing programmes I Think we'd still be here, in November discussing further restrictions. Maybe not to the same degree or in different places but almost certainly still doing this.

Given the level of asymptomatic cases, track and trace as envisaged in the Summer was always going to be a loser. It's only a vaccine or mass testing that will get us reliably away from this boom bust cycle of restrictions and relief.

 

 

[superbigal]

On 13/11/2020 at 14:25, superbigal said:

So todays update just released.  Cases 7 days per 100K to 10th November another drop for the 3rd day from 148.1 to 145.9

The relegated trio are fairly flat so that proves the use of stats on Tuesday was just for show.

Also on that note, the alarming rise in Inverclyde Stat was also bullshit ,as 3 days later they have dropped from 156.8 to 118.3 or nearly 25%

Glasgow still over 290 and been at that level for over a month.

Renfrew still rising now at 287.5. They only had just over 60 cases per 100K early in October when they were in the same equivalent restrictions  Head shaking stuff for these people day after day.

So todays update just released.  Cases 7 days per 100K to 11th November another drop for the 4th day from  145.9 to 144.9

Of the relegated trio Angus is actually dropping,  Fife is being dragged down  by the smelly  areas of Kennoway, Glenrothes  & Markinch.  St Andrews Uni to be fair is doing a remarkable job of keeping infections down compared to central Fife.  P&K is stable.

Glasgow and Renfrew still over 290 look sure to be exterminated on Tuesday

North & South Lanarkshire still might escape for me.

Edinburgh is not going to get a reprieve.

[MP_MFC]

So todays update just released.  Cases 7 days per 100K to 11th November another drop for the 4th day from  145.9 to 144.9
Of the relegated trio Angus is actually dropping,  Fife is being dragged down  by the smelly  areas of Kennoway, Glenrothes  & Markinch.  St Andrews Uni to be fair is doing a remarkable job of keeping infections down compared to central Fife.  P&K is stable.
Glasgow and Renfrew still over 290 look sure to be exterminated on Tuesday
North & South Lanarkshire still might escape for me.
Edinburgh is not going to get a reprieve.

Think the issue with Lanarkshire is the infections have just plateaued but the hospital capacity seems to be the main concern that will see is join tier 4 to drive down and prevent the capacity coming close.

[Inanimate Carbon Rod]

Lets be honest tier 4 isnt going to make any shred of difference, people dingying the rules are still going to dingy them. Theres too much apathy to sticking to the rules. 
Schools are obviously a factor, i cannot fathom why they cant get every secondary pupil to wear masks etc, seeing the kids gather in massive groups outside the schools in renfrew etc, why are they being allowed to go out at lunch times? Bring a packed lunch or school dinner, minimise the risk of community transmission. 
Scrap the exceptions for wearing masks to all but those deemed clinically necessary and start issuing fines. 
 

[alta-pete]

19 minutes ago, superbigal said:

So todays update just released.  Cases 7 days per 100K to 11th November another drop for the 4th day from  145.9 to 144.9

Of the relegated trio Angus is actually dropping,  Fife is being dragged down  by the smelly  areas of Kennoway, Glenrothes  & Markinch.  St Andrews Uni to be fair is doing a remarkable job of keeping infections down compared to central Fife.  P&K is stable.

Glasgow and Renfrew still over 290 look sure to be exterminated on Tuesday

North & South Lanarkshire still might escape for me.

Edinburgh is not going to get a reprieve.

Falkirk 80/100k, Clacks 85/100k. Stirling around the Scottish average at 145 but when you take out that cluster of 30 or so cases from one outbreak at a Bannockburn care home it drops to a similar level. 

Should probably be grateful the rate of infection is so low but just ticked off that such a large and stable geography is lumped in Level 3 with the minks in Lanarkshire and Glasgow. Edinburgh, and particularly E Lothian, look to have reasonable cause to be similarly aggrieved. 

[Todd_is_God]

38 minutes ago, renton said:

Short of staying in the original phase 1 for much longer, or the existence in the Summer of mass testing programmes I Think we'd still be here, in November discussing further restrictions. Maybe not to the same degree or in different places but almost certainly still doing this.

I think if we look across Europe, and in particular at Sweden, we can probably now say with a fair level of confidence that the 'shape' of the virus is largely independent of the presence, or harshness, of restrictions. Seasonality appears the biggest factor, like the other circulating respiratory viruses.

The lockdown and restrictions in place over spring and summer were now a clear mistake, which achieved nothing.

The money spent on hunting down tiny fragments of viral RNA, on keeping business afloat, and paying people like me to sit on the couch for 8 months would have been much better spent on increasing care capacity, and we'd be able to cope with this winter in a much more normal capacity.