Coronavirus (COVID-19)

[Louis Litt]

12 hours ago, madwullie said:

Wife telling me tonight that there's a mad scramble in her hospital from people trying to get themselves / their (nhs employed) mates etc. booked in for vaccines when they don't actually work in red zones which is meant to be the criteria for qualifying to get one - meaning actual staff who work in these zones and are facing critical patients every day are unable to get booking slots / having to wait days to get vaccinated. 

She says it's being managed like a release of Glastonbury tickets. 

This is the experience I had at Ninewells. We had an email sent around with a link to book a slot with the woman that sent it practically begging to 'please not share it with any other colleagues or departments'. 

It doesn't ask in any detail what your job is or even where you actually work - it looked like basically anyone could book which is obviously the case with what's happening. 

The Glastonbury thing is pretty accurate, it was literally a case of refreshing and crossing your fingers. 

[renton]

Just now, RiG said:

From one paper I had read you need around 70% of the population needs to attain immunity for herd immunity.

https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/0141076820945282

So maybe closer (or more than) 200,000 vaccinations a week?

The effective level for herd immunity is dependent on R effective, so in some sense you can achieve it at a much lower percentage if you leave some restrictions in place. Of course if you then open up, your R effective goes up and so does your threshold for herd immunity. Though it does mean that once you had your herd immunity level with restrictions, you could drive viral levels low and continue your vaccination programme in a more open way afterwards.

That also assumes that the virus spreads evenly. It seems like 80% of infected people don't actually pass it on.  Thus herd immunity is actually a lower number since you really only need to stop transmission through a lower fraction of the population. Assuming the vaccine stops transmission at all.

Blootoon is right though, once you get the most vulnerable people vaccinated you won't be able to keep a lid on restrictions anyway, and the government needs to be prepared for that. Still though, vaccinating 16% of the population gets you all the 65s and over, 20% gets you that and critical workers I'd guess and that is still 62k/week  by end of March.

 

[Michael W]

My GP surgery has been allocated as one of the local centres for roll out. The local Facebook pages were full of angry people yesterday because the road was blocked with cars parked everywhere as people had been called in to get their vaccine. 

I've already received my ticket from my GP for my vaccination, although I will be waiting a while yet until they contact me to make my appointment as I'm low risk. At least 1 party in the chain is organised. 

[RiG]

Listening to the latest Private Eye podcast (which features "MD" discussing the COVID-19 vaccine) and completely forgot that the UK has lost its measles free status!

https://www.private-eye.co.uk/eyeplayer/play-379?fbclid=IwAR34X3TyAMWZGTS1sXu059v6wXH_IQYDFkRK8y5Q5pl57lFMYH0wTu6MytY

[stuart87]

I have dreamt of watching Scotland at a major tournament since I was 10 in 1998. Having managed to get tickets for the Hampden games at the Euros, I fear I am going to be left disappointed as the games are played behind closed doors or in a different country that we can’t go to. Someone give me some hope.

[Dons_1988]

1 minute ago, stuart87 said:

I have dreamt of watching Scotland at a major tournament since I was 10 in 1998. Having managed to get tickets for the Hampden games at the Euros, I fear I am going to be left disappointed as the games are played behind closed doors or in a different country that we can’t go to. Someone give me some hope.

We'll probably get pumped anyway.

[renton]

1 minute ago, stuart87 said:

I have dreamt of watching Scotland at a major tournament since I was 10 in 1998. Having managed to get tickets for the Hampden games at the Euros, I fear I am going to be left disappointed as the games are played behind closed doors or in a different country that we can’t go to. Someone give me some hope.

Once the AZ/Oxford vaccine gets regulatory approval you could effectively go door to door with it. I'd expect us to really ramp up vaccinations at that point.

[LongTimeLurker]

1 hour ago, Todd_is_God said:

I agree, but they are also saying this:

They seem to be missing the point that providing the vaccine reduces the chance of serious illness by around 90% it doesn't really matter whether or not it reduces transmission, or by how much.

...true but the cranky irrational curtain twitcher brigade won't see it that way and Nicola consistently dances to their tune. The silent majority need to stop being apathetic and make their voices heard on this. Once the most vulnerable 20% or so who have had the vast majority of fatalities have been vaccinated or at least have had the chance to be and knocked it back, it will be absurd to be at higher than Level 0.

[Big Fifer]

1 hour ago, Todd_is_God said:

I agree, but they are also saying this:

They seem to be missing the point that providing the vaccine reduces the chance of serious illness by around 90% it doesn't really matter whether or not it reduces transmission, or by how much.

Very frustrating. That same thread includes that guy saying Sturgeon has to balance the economical damage with the risk of young people getting "long covid". That really worries me that this is, even maybe, the government's line. If a vaccine is 95% effective, and the "risk" of "long covid" is already pretty small, surely they cannot actually be trying to enforce social distancing next summer when I would assume the overwhelming majority of vulnerable people are vaccinated.

They are not having the correct conversations between themselves or with the public.  I've went full circle from being broadly supportive of the Scottish governments cautious approach to worrying greatly about their competence and willingness when it comes to reopening things. 

[Paco]

Any predictions of how this plays out are premature. We don’t know how good the vaccines are - remember Pfizer tested only symptomatic people who requested one, and they were living in a culture of distancing/masks etc. Real world, with closer contacts and masks less common, it might be far less effective. If it is but nobody really gets ill, then that’s great but that needs to be quantified and understood. You can’t just presume that. We need to be able to understand the inevitable deaths of vaccinated people dying within 28 days of a positive Covid test. We need to know whether Covid is still a factor in killing them - easy on an individual basis, harder at population level. And we need to see significantly less people showing up at hospitals with Covid/Covid symptoms.

 

Hopefully all these things come through. But you’d need to be an idiot (anyone seen our Prime Minister lately?) to put your name to what April or the summer will definitively look like. Anything could happen. Politicians especially shouldn’t be committing to anything.

[effeffsee_the2nd]

14 minutes ago, Big Fifer said:

Very frustrating. That same thread includes that guy saying Sturgeon has to balance the economical damage with the risk of young people getting "long covid". That really worries me that this is, even maybe, the government's line. If a vaccine is 95% effective, and the "risk" of "long covid" is already pretty small, surely they cannot actually be trying to enforce social distancing next summer when I would assume the overwhelming majority of vulnerable people are vaccinated.

They are not having the correct conversations between themselves or with the public.  I've went full circle from being broadly supportive of the Scottish governments cautious approach to worrying greatly about their competence and willingness when it comes to reopening things. 

" its just not worth the risk" is a phrase mostly used by those who do not have any understanding  of risk assessing or management

[The Moonster]

5 minutes ago, LongTimeLurker said:

cranky irrational curtain twitcher brigade 

Sometimes it's better to use the tried and tested insults rather than trying to make up your own.

[Big Fifer]

23 minutes ago, Paco said:

Any predictions of how this plays out are premature. We don’t know how good the vaccines are - remember Pfizer tested only symptomatic people who requested one, and they were living in a culture of distancing/masks etc. Real world, with closer contacts and masks less common, it might be far less effective. If it is but nobody really gets ill, then that’s great but that needs to be quantified and understood. You can’t just presume that. We need to be able to understand the inevitable deaths of vaccinated people dying within 28 days of a positive Covid test. We need to know whether Covid is still a factor in killing them - easy on an individual basis, harder at population level. And we need to see significantly less people showing up at hospitals with Covid/Covid symptoms.

 

Hopefully all these things come through. But you’d need to be an idiot (anyone seen our Prime Minister lately?) to put your name to what April or the summer will definitively look like. Anything could happen. Politicians especially shouldn’t be committing to anything.

I understand your point, but I think it's an entirely legitimate viewpoint to expect the government in the middle of January to set out a plan for how the country opens back up assuming the vaccine is as effective as the trials show. 

[Detournement]

 

[Big Fifer]

Wales already booking in their lockdown for the 28th. This is an absolute shambles. 

[Todd_is_God]

49 minutes ago, Big Fifer said:

Very frustrating. That same thread includes that guy saying Sturgeon has to balance the economical damage with the risk of young people getting "long covid". That really worries me that this is, even maybe, the government's line. If a vaccine is 95% effective, and the "risk" of "long covid" is already pretty small, surely they cannot actually be trying to enforce social distancing next summer when I would assume the overwhelming majority of vulnerable people are vaccinated.

They are not having the correct conversations between themselves or with the public.  I've went full circle from being broadly supportive of the Scottish governments cautious approach to worrying greatly about their competence and willingness when it comes to reopening things. 

My understanding of "Long Covid" is that it is essentially Post Viral Fatigue Syndrome re-badged.

It seems inconceiveable that someone experiencing a very mild infection would develop this.

Like everything else, there will likely be a small number of examples of this, which the media and public will no doubt over-react to.

[RiG]

SG pulling back from the 4 (or 5?) day "relaxation of rules and recommending that if you have to meet up just do it for one day and no overnight stays if possible.

ETA: BBC now reporting that it seems it's as you were in England but in Wales they are recommending no more than two households mix.

Edited December 16, 2020 by RiG

[Michael W]

That's the Welsh announcing a lockdown from the 28th of December. 

They are treating symptoms, not causes here. An utterly moronic approach. 

Edited December 16, 2020 by Michael W

[accies1874]

23 hours ago, Gaz said:

If Starmer does call for the restrictions to be re-imposed then it's an absolute NAP he's photoshopped as The Grinch in at least one of the tabloids tomorrow.

Class

[MP_MFC]

That's the Welsh announcing a lockdown from the 28th of December. 
They are treating symptoms, not causes here. An utterly moronic approach. 

Having a mare in the valleys