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1 minute ago, 101 said:

I agree the people of England should be particularly concerned, if you and your English tax payers wish to continue throwing money at call centers then by all means go for it. The Scottish system seems to be somewhat more effective although falls at the final hurdle of people not typing the code into the app.

Yes the Scottish system has been a roaring success, which is why we are now entering what feels like our 400th week of a blanket national lockdown. 

Why does someone who has been vaccinated need further protection from the virus?

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1 minute ago, welshbairn said:

I think it could be morally justified to protect people who can't take the vaccine for medical reasons. Shouldn't be an issue if we hit herd immunity, except for maybe foreign travel if other countries are lagging behind.

You'd need to be careful that you don't exclude them from activities where they assume essentially all the risk.

It doesn't affect me but I wouldn't be too keen on actively banning people from going to a concert, for example, on the basis that they have a medical condition.

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This statement is a couple of days old so I may have missed it in this gargantuan thread (apologies if so) but this sounds slightly concerning though I guess it's not overly surprising?

 

Edited by RiG
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4 minutes ago, Todd_is_God said:

You'd need to be careful that you don't exclude them from activities where they assume essentially all the risk.

It doesn't affect me but I wouldn't be too keen on actively banning people from going to a concert, for example, on the basis that they have a medical condition.

Agreed, I was replying to someone who was doubtful about the morality of banning refuseniks, suggesting it could be justified to protect those with no choice, so they could safely attend.

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5 minutes ago, The Moonster said:

Yes the Scottish system has been a roaring success, which is why we are now entering what feels like our 400th week of a blanket national lockdown. 

Why does someone who has been vaccinated need further protection from the virus?

Two arguments will be used against it.  retransmission (not strictly them needing further protection) and efficacy.

It's possible retransmission won't be a concern.  This will possibly be known in the next few weeks/months.

Efficacy isn't going away and is why we need herd immunity to negate it.

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Worryingly not going so well in Israel with vaccinations as previously thought, while early results of the two-dose regimen are promising, they've also being dong just single doses, and they are concerning. These are only very early preliminary studies, but Sky suggest UK Gov looking closely at them, as probably every other country is doing.

https://news.sky.com/story/covid-19-uk-to-look-very-carefully-at-vaccine-dosing-after-concerns-raised-over-level-of-protection-12193205

Quote

Professor Ran Balicer, who works for the largest health care provider in Israel and who is an adviser to the World Health Organisation, told Sky News there was "no difference" between infections of vaccinated and unvaccinated people until 14 days after a Pfizer jab. But he added that, on day 14 after vaccination, "a drop of 33% in positivity was witnessed in the vaccinated group and not in the unvaccinated".

Also bit in the Guardian about cases rising in Israel despite being in lockdown & in midst of vaccinating.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jan/19/single-covid-vaccine-dose-in-israel-less-effective-than-we-hoped

It feels like we're all in a big giant experiment. And we've got everything from people denying it exists and is a worldwide conspiracy by the rich elite, people that know it exists but think only the old & vulnerable should be staying at home and put their fingers in their ears and continue to shout that it'll be fine by Spring, to doctors desperate to show the reality inside their hospitals where they are struggling despite lots of surge capacity in ICU, and people who have been ultra careful and haven't been outside their own house for over 10 months, despite being neither old nor vulnerable. 

Oh and not forgetting the tennis players and their partners who've been flown into Australia for the Open (with first round losers earning £55k) and after some positive covid tests are moaning at being kept in quarantine in their hotels free of charge and all meals provided, with Bernard Tomic's girlfriend complaining she has to wash her own hair. 

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24 minutes ago, Todd_is_God said:

Even if the contact tracing and isolation only applied to those unvaccinated I can't see how this would work. Unless you are advocating having the police having the power to stop people that are out and check their vaccination & isolation status, in which case there is a special place right at the bottom of a bin in the middle of Pyongyang for this idea.

I'm really not at all concerned about anti-vaxxers tbh. They will be a small percentage, and the risk to me (and anyone else who has been vaccinated) from them is pretty much non-existant.

I would hope they would comply but would be dubious. The risk is low now who knows how long that lasts.

21 minutes ago, The Moonster said:

Yes the Scottish system has been a roaring success, which is why we are now entering what feels like our 400th week of a blanket national lockdown. 

Why does someone who has been vaccinated need further protection from the virus?

The system works public compliance which is a separate entity and worrying hasn't been in step has been lacking. The Government should have done more to support compliance.

Until we know exactly how good the vaccine is and for how long it would be reckless not to keep an eye on it's spread.

17 minutes ago, Marshmallo said:

Hadn't really noticed you before till middle of 2020

I hanker for those halycyon days.

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1 hour ago, madwullie said:

Actuary on radio 4 this morning suggesting the models they've run, even with top 4 categories vaccinated (I think he said they assumed 70% protection from spreading it, and 100% protection from serious disease) (top 4 being resposible for 88% of deaths) the figures that would produce in terms of hospitalisations and R would have him really concerned if restrictions were lifted at this point. 

Wish I'd caught the whole thing as unsure if he meant gradual lifting, or a whip everything away and let 'er rip type lifting. 

Will see if I can find a link to it

Edit: it was this programme, not sure if there's a write up / transcript of it

https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/m000rccm

Think the point he was making was vaccinating the over 70s wouldn't do much to relieve the pressure on ICUs because that age group don't make up a big percentage of people in them as they'd be unlikely to survive extreme procedures. So vaccination alone might not be enough to remove restrictions until we're closer to getting all the over 50s done. But hopefully as we see the infection rates drop independently of vaccination, we'll get back into the tier system much sooner, if they keep falling as they have been in the Highlands I'd be hoping we'll be back in tier 1 or at least 2 by mid February at the latest.

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21 minutes ago, RiG said:

This statement is a couple of days old so I may have missed it in this gargantuan thread (apologies if so) but this sounds slightly concerning though I guess it's not overly surprising?

 

Apparently antibodies are only part of the immune response (T Cells are important too).

Feigl-Ding is also known for using hysterical language and scaring the daylights out of people unnecessarily. Was the same all the way through the vaccine trial process at the hint of any setback.

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3 minutes ago, anotherchance said:

Apparently antibodies are only part of the immune response (T Cells are important too).

Feigl-Ding is also known for using hysterical language and scaring the daylights out of people unnecessarily. Was the same all the way through the vaccine trial process at the hint of any setback.

Cheers. I was trying to remember some of my human biology stuff from university but that's long gone now :lol:

If that is the case then that kind of language isn't helpful at this time but I guess eh won't care if he gets #numbers on social media.

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6 minutes ago, The Moonster said:

One dose is better than nae doses and two doses appears to be working as we thought. What's the worry?

Might be missing something but I thought immune responses didn’t kick in till after the 14 days anyway? So 33% protection within that time (Valance said today it’s likely to be higher after the 14 days) is probably to be expected?

Worst case, they can change plan and second dose Pfizer relatively easily. 

This sort of data is so complex that it isn’t really designed to be seized upon by 24 hour news channels in a time where everybody is anxious and waiting for news. People’s understanding of these sorts of things isn’t great, but a negative headline/story based on half data with plenty of unknowns will set anxiety off big time.

 

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6 minutes ago, anotherchance said:

Apparently antibodies are only part of the immune response (T Cells are important too).

Feigl-Ding is also known for using hysterical language and scaring the daylights out of people unnecessarily. Was the same all the way through the vaccine trial process at the hint of any setback.

Feigl-Ding might as well have tweeted "STUNNING - you won't BELEIVE what South Africa's CDC HAS FOUND!!!1!" with a link to a Lad Bible article.

1 minute ago, anotherchance said:

Might be missing something but I thought immune responses didn’t kick in till after the 14 days anyway? So 33% protection within that time (Valance said today it’s likely to be higher after the 14 days) is probably to be expected?

Worst case, they can change plan and second dose Pfizer relatively easily. 

This sort of data is so complex that it isn’t really designed to be seized upon by 24 hour news channels in a time where everybody is anxious and waiting for news. People’s understanding of these sorts of things isn’t great, but a negative headline/story based on half data with plenty of unknowns will set anxiety off big time.

 

Yes, that's correct. I agree completely.

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10 minutes ago, anotherchance said:

Apparently antibodies are only part of the immune response (T Cells are important too).

Feigl-Ding is also known for using hysterical language and scaring the daylights out of people unnecessarily. Was the same all the way through the vaccine trial process at the hint of any setback.

There's also the the advantage of the new mRNA vaccines that they can quickly be tweaked to combat radically new strains without going through a lengthy testing procedure again.

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If you really wanted to force their hand you could look at putting restrictions on other things if you haven't been vaccinated (large indoor gatherings etc.).  no idea how you could enforce it though.  Not sure if I agree with it morally either.
To be honest if you can get away with laws the way they currently are, they should just go the whole hog and make vaccines mandatory.
Someone in the future not vaccinated is going to be more dangerous than someone currently driving 30 miles for a burger. The latter can expect a fine. What will we think of the former in 12 months ?
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1 minute ago, Detournement said:

There will be a roaring trade in vaccine stand ins. 

Do you not have to show some ID when getting vaccinated (otherwise you may get vaccine junkies going straight to the back of the queue again....)

Having to prove you have had the vaccine to get into a pub would also have a dramatic effect I would imagine...

"are you over 18?....ok.....have you been vaccinated....ok......anyway you're not getting in with those trainers......beat it!"

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