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Think the point he was making was vaccinating the over 70s wouldn't do much to relieve the pressure on ICUs because that age group don't make up a big percentage of people in them as they'd be unlikely to survive extreme procedures. So vaccination alone might not be enough to remove restrictions until we're closer to getting all the over 50s done. But hopefully as we see the infection rates drop independently of vaccination, we'll get back into the tier system much sooner, if they keep falling as they have been in the Highlands I'd be hoping we'll be back in tier 1 or at least 2 by mid February at the latest.
Unfortunately I think any return to the tier system before the end of March is optimistic - and I say that as someone in an area which has never been higher than tier 3.

I think we'll keep things tight until a chunk of the vaccinations have been dished out.
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17 minutes ago, welshbairn said:

There's also the the advantage of the new mRNA vaccines that they can quickly be tweaked to combat radically new strains without going through a lengthy testing procedure again.

Should imagine it won't be difficult for the Oxford vaccine either.  they designed and created it in a weekend.

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2 minutes ago, MuckleMoo said:

Care home company refusing to hire staff who knock back the vaccine

https://www.scotsman.com/health/care-home-group-will-not-employ-staff-who-refuse-covid-19-vaccine-3106075

Will also be reviewing the employment of existing staff who do the same

Quite right too.  Imagine employing people who could pass a deadly virus on to your only source of income.

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5 minutes ago, MuckleMoo said:

Care home company refusing to hire staff who knock back the vaccine

https://www.scotsman.com/health/care-home-group-will-not-employ-staff-who-refuse-covid-19-vaccine-3106075

Will also be reviewing the employment of existing staff who do the same

Apparently they've been specifically targeted by anti-vaxxers. P.S. I see that's in the article you linked.

https://www.heraldscotland.com/news/19015057.covid-scottish-care-homes-targeted-anti-vaccine-groups-wholly-despicable-campaign/

Edited by welshbairn
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1 minute ago, MuckleMoo said:

Care home company refusing to hire staff who knock back the vaccine

https://www.scotsman.com/health/care-home-group-will-not-employ-staff-who-refuse-covid-19-vaccine-3106075

Will also be reviewing the employment of existing staff who do the same

Thankfully we are seeing a concerted push against the Facebook maw and Twitter anti-vax/ it's just 'flu/5G  morons. 

Damage has been done I know but long may it continue to get vax numbers up.

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It's possible retransmission won't be a concern.  This will possibly be known in the next few weeks/months.

Already known. 98% sterilising immunity after second dose in Israel according to Pfizer.

Incidentally, one of the reasons Israel got a quick start on vaccinations was that they agreed to share all their data with Pfizer in exchange for dibs on the first tranche of vials.
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2 hours ago, Left Back said:

Interesting Q&A with Vallance on Sky this morning.  With hindsight reckons they should have locked down harder and faster in March.  He also said he wishes (but he can’t see how anyone can have predicted this was necessary) they’d recommended closing the borders last January.  He reckons by March it was too late and wouldn’t have made any difference.

It’s a no brainer that we should have closed the borders in March at least. It was fcking madness that we couldn’t travel more than 5 miles yet flights were still allowed in and out untested. 

I also wonder if him mentioning January makes him think that there was covid deaths in the UK long before the first “official” one 

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7 minutes ago, DiegoDiego said:


Already known. 98% sterilising immunity after second dose in Israel according to Pfizer.

Incidentally, one of the reasons Israel got a quick start on vaccinations was that they agreed to share all their data with Pfizer in exchange for dibs on the first tranche of vials.

Do you have a link to that? I haven't read that at all - have they even had enough time to measure the full effect of the second dose?

Edited by bendan
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4 minutes ago, Thereisalight.. said:

I also wonder if him mentioning January makes him think that there was covid deaths in the UK long before the first “official” one 

From memory they met a few times in January as the situation became clear in China and were issuing all sorts of warnings but Boris was too busy with the Brexit agenda to bother attending.

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https://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2021-01/uoc-fot011821.php

Cambridge and Imperial college researchers quantify the vital importance of ventilation to prevent indoor transmission.  Masks and adequate ventilation are vitally important to prevent this.  Hand sanitiser and standing 2m away does not. 

 

Edited by ICTChris
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5 minutes ago, Thereisalight.. said:

It’s a no brainer that we should have closed the borders in March at least. It was fcking madness that we couldn’t travel more than 5 miles yet flights were still allowed in and out untested. 

I also wonder if him mentioning January makes him think that there was covid deaths in the UK long before the first “official” one 

While that's likely, it's probably not what he meant.

More likely saying that, with hindsight, closing the border when the first cases in China were being talked about would have been a good idea.

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1 minute ago, ICTChris said:

https://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2021-01/uoc-fot011821.php

Cambridge and Imperial college researchers quantify the vital importance of ventilation to prevent indoor transmission.  Masks and adequate ventilation are vitally important to prevent this.  Hand sanitiser and standing 2m away does not. 

 

Bad news - Lord Leitch advised we can't wear masks due to cultural norms so I am afraid we can never get back to business as usual.

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3 minutes ago, realmadrid said:

From memory they met a few times in January as the situation became clear in China and were issuing all sorts of warnings but Boris was too busy with the Brexit agenda to bother attending.

Boris was bragging that Britain would stay open for business while the rest of the world was closing down.

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Think the point he was making was vaccinating the over 70s wouldn't do much to relieve the pressure on ICUs because that age group don't make up a big percentage of people in them as they'd be unlikely to survive extreme procedures. So vaccination alone might not be enough to remove restrictions until we're closer to getting all the over 50s done. But hopefully as we see the infection rates drop independently of vaccination, we'll get back into the tier system much sooner, if they keep falling as they have been in the Highlands I'd be hoping we'll be back in tier 1 or at least 2 by mid February at the latest.
There is no way anywhere is going back into the tier system based on cases falling with admissions / ICU and deaths not showing sustained falls when eventually they even peak !

In the vaccine phase that measure (new infections) becomes redundant, it should now be ignored. All that will drive an end to measures is substantial and sustained falls in hospitalizations and deaths. The vaccine isn't proven to reduce transmission so why would we use it as a measure. It's proven to greatly reduce the severity of the disease if you catch it so that has to be the measure and that can only be done through hospital admissions and ICU / death rates.
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22 minutes ago, welshbairn said:

Boris was bragging that Britain would stay open for business while the rest of the world was closing down.

Yup thats about it........

Defiant Boris Johnson tries to keep Britain open for business | Financial Times (ft.com)

This all seems so long ago now...whatever happened to this epidemiology expert?

Mr Cummings has in the past expressed a personal interest in this topic. “I am particularly interested in public health and the field of epidemiology,”

 

Edited by Caledonian1
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