Marshmallo Posted March 31, 2020 Share Posted March 31, 2020 17 minutes ago, Todd_is_God said: You want me to say because countries lock down. The alternate view is that it's already infected the vast majority of the population, and the number of those that will develop symptoms but haven't yet reduces every day. Without adequate antibody testing there's no way to tell for sure. No I don't. Do you understand what a "curve" on a graph like that means? -2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Todd_is_God Posted March 31, 2020 Share Posted March 31, 2020 1 minute ago, Diamonds are Forever said: That doesn't tie in with the fact that throughout the process between 90-95% of people tested have come back as negative, and these are largely the ones who have symptoms so you'd expect the percentage of positive cases to be highest amongst that group. Fair point 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Todd_is_God Posted March 31, 2020 Share Posted March 31, 2020 1 minute ago, Marshmallo said: Do you understand what a "curve" on a graph like that means? I'm open to the possibility that I don't. Would you mind? 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marshmallo Posted March 31, 2020 Share Posted March 31, 2020 Just now, Todd_is_God said: I'm open to the possibility that I don't. Would you mind? The scales are logarithmic on the "curved" graphs. If you're going to be disregarding data to perpetuate Infowars-esque bullshit then it's probably helpful if you can read it in the first place. -1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jacksgranda Posted March 31, 2020 Share Posted March 31, 2020 36 minutes ago, cyderspaceman said: If all our food , water and air is contaminated in one way or another, (as is often claimed) then we should all be immune to everything. Or nothing. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Todd_is_God Posted March 31, 2020 Share Posted March 31, 2020 (edited) 4 minutes ago, Marshmallo said: The scales are logarithmic on the "curved" graphs. If you're going to be disregarding data to perpetuate Infowars-esque bullshit then it's probably helpful if you can read it in the first place. That graph isn't logarithmic. It's a linear scale. Each y axis line is 10,000 Edited March 31, 2020 by Todd_is_God 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyderspaceman Posted March 31, 2020 Share Posted March 31, 2020 1 minute ago, Bairnardo said: Be some laugh if the virus just disappears with no explanation. The tin foil consumption would be amazing. The so-called Spanish flu just fucked off eventually. Although the explanation is that folk died or gained immunity* Which may mean our current response, (whether or not you agree with it) causes Covid to hang around a bit longer than if it just fired through the population unhindered, killing many more. * Don't fully understand that. Was EVERY person on the planet exposed to it? But I'm not an expert. P.S. The 'Spanish' flu came in waves. The first wave not too serious... 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Benjamin_Nevis Posted March 31, 2020 Share Posted March 31, 2020 Assuming he was born in 1988 I think he just misses the cut off date for being a boomer. Tbf he posts like a boring old c**t 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
welshbairn Posted March 31, 2020 Share Posted March 31, 2020 (edited) 35 minutes ago, Todd_is_God said: Is that first spike not China only? I think it's probably wise to either ignore it, as the rest of the Chinese data forms a curve, or ignore the Chinese data altogether as being reliable as a single day spike like that is ridiculously unlikely. They changed the diagnostic methodology in Hubei as they were short of testing kits. You get more false positives from chest imaging alone. Quote The increase is mostly due to a change in the way the cases are being diagnosed and reported, according to Mike Ryan, the executive director of the World Health Organization's health emergencies program. Doctors in Hubei Province are now using chest imaging to confirm cases rather than just relying on test confirmation in labs. Lab testing is still required to confirm cases everywhere else. Ryan said that the cases go back over days and weeks and are being retrospectively reported. "So we are not dealing, from what we understand, with a spike in cases of 14,000 on one day," he said. "We've seen this spike in the number of cases reported in China but this does not represent a significant change in the trajectory of the outbreak." https://www.usnews.com/news/world-report/articles/2020-02-13/who-reassures-public-after-chinese-data-raise-questions-about-surge-in-coronavirus-cases Edited March 31, 2020 by welshbairn 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marshmallo Posted March 31, 2020 Share Posted March 31, 2020 4 minutes ago, Todd_is_God said: That graph isn't logarithmic. It's a linear scale. Each y axis line is 10,000 Which one? The line graph? -2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dons_1988 Posted March 31, 2020 Share Posted March 31, 2020 2 minutes ago, Day of the Lords said: 37 minutes ago, throbber said: Assuming he was born in 1988 I think he just misses the cut off date for being a boomer. Tbf he posts like a boring old c**t Guilty. Greenie for a rare bit of accuracy. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Todd_is_God Posted March 31, 2020 Share Posted March 31, 2020 2 minutes ago, Marshmallo said: Which one? The line graph? This one 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Detournement Posted March 31, 2020 Share Posted March 31, 2020 12 minutes ago, Diamonds are Forever said: That doesn't tie in with the fact that throughout the process between 90-95% of people tested have come back as negative, and these are largely the ones who have symptoms so you'd expect the percentage of positive cases to be highest amongst that group. Everyone presenting with breathing difficulty is getting tested so the tests will have been done largely on elderly people with existing conditions. The tests being done tell us nothing about the majority of the population. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeartsOfficialMoaner Posted March 31, 2020 Share Posted March 31, 2020 Edinburgh Festival off according to Evening Snooze 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
welshbairn Posted March 31, 2020 Share Posted March 31, 2020 3 minutes ago, cyderspaceman said: The so-called Spanish flu just fucked off eventually. Although the explanation is that folk died or gained immunity* Which may mean our current response, (whether or not you agree with it) causes Covid to hang around a bit longer than if it just fired through the population unhindered, killing many more. * Don't fully understand that. Was EVERY person on the planet exposed to it? But I'm not an expert. P.S. The 'Spanish' flu came in waves. The first wave not too serious... Not completely, it keeps mutating and occasionally into killer comeback tours. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marshmallo Posted March 31, 2020 Share Posted March 31, 2020 1 minute ago, Todd_is_God said: This one Yes. And you then said it could be disregarded because all the other graphs showed a curve. -2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
throbber Posted March 31, 2020 Share Posted March 31, 2020 7 minutes ago, Day of the Lords said: 42 minutes ago, throbber said: Assuming he was born in 1988 I think he just misses the cut off date for being a boomer. Tbf he posts like a boring old c**t It appears that you were correct then, well played. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Todd_is_God Posted March 31, 2020 Share Posted March 31, 2020 Just now, Marshmallo said: Yes. And you then said it could be disregarded because all the other graphs showed a curve. No. I said you could diregard that one day spike in China as the rest of the days showed a curve. Just like the global data on the same graph is starting to show a curve 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newbornbairn Posted March 31, 2020 Share Posted March 31, 2020 47 minutes ago, throbber said: It’s 0.072% if we have had 47 deaths with 65000 infected. If we are to assume a 1% death rate then only 4700 in Scotland are infected. If the number is anywhere near 65000 then why is it not killing Scottish people off at anywhere near the rate seen in Italy/Spain? The confirmed cases figure is 1563*. Deaths is 47, therefore death rate is 3%. Bear in mind that's 3% of the people who get treatment. If the numbers rise to the point that we can't give treatment to every serious case, the death rate will rise. This is what has happened in Italy and Spain where facilities have become swamped. Further - not all of those 1563 have recovered. We won't know the true death rate until this is over. *It's estimated the number of cases is a lot higher, but no-one knows the exact figure https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-52009463 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Granny Danger Posted March 31, 2020 Share Posted March 31, 2020 I’ve had to come into Dundee city centre to go to Boots (again). The place is pretty dead. Far more folk observing the lockdown than ignoring it, social interaction must be way down compared to pre-lockdown times. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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