The US Presidential election prediction thread

[welshbairn]

From 538 for any late punters to change tactics. Any bets on Trump should be on a better than expected Electoral College count, depending on the odds of course.

Quote

A big reason why Trump has a small but meaningful chance of winning reelection comes down to the advantage that Republicans currently have in the Electoral College. Trump has only a 3 in 100 chance of winning the national popular vote, according to our forecast, but he has about a 10 in 100 chance of winning the election. That means in most scenarios where Trump wins, he loses the popular vote.

 

Edited November 3, 2020 by welshbairn

[GordonS]

Well, one thing we already know. There hasn't been voter intimidation or suppression, or really much in the way of jiggery-pokery. The people who run the voter support hotline say most calls have been resolved quickly and easily, and many are about rumours that turned out not to be true. They've not received as many calls as could have been expected.

Also seems to have helped that 100m voted early or by post, so turnout at polling stations is massively lower. There are no signs of the huge queues we've seen in previous elections.

With everything that's happened this year and could happen yet, I'm drawing some happiness from this.

[DeeTillEhDeh]

94% trust the vote to be fair.

96% made their mind up before the last week.

[smpar]

Looking forward to Trump losing the election, then not only calling it a rigged election, but either;

try to get the whole thing scrapped, or;

try to take it through the courts to get the result overturned, or;

try to call it null and void.

If Biden wins, I’m almost certain Trump will attempt one, or any combination, of the above scenarios. There’s no way he’d let peacefully step aside.

[DeeTillEhDeh]

31% of Biden voters voted just to get rid of Trump.

[D.A.F.C]

1 minute ago, DeeTillEhDeh said:

31% of Biden voters voted just to get rid of Trump.

The Scottish Labour of American politics.

[welshbairn]

2 minutes ago, GordonS said:

Well, one thing we already know. There hasn't been voter intimidation or suppression, or really much in the way of jiggery-pokery. The people who run the voter support hotline say most calls have been resolved quickly and easily, and many are about rumours that turned out not to be true. They've not received as many calls as could have been expected.

Also seems to have helped that 100m voted early or by post, so turnout at polling stations is massively lower. There are no signs of the huge queues we've seen in previous elections.

With everything that's happened this year and could happen yet, I'm drawing some happiness from this.

9/10 Trumpets are too fat to move more than 10 yards from their pick up trucks or maws basement. Fact. The threat of offline violence from them is overstated imo, apart from a tiny minority with terrorist inclinations. 

[DrewDon]

Am I supposed to vote for the Democrat who's gonna blast me in the ass, or the Republican who's blasting my ass? Politics is just all one big ass blast. 

[Comrie]

Beginning to think this could end up very, very tight. Maybe another late surge the pollsters didn't expect.

[Jacksgranda]

41 minutes ago, Aladdin said:

Hopefully be a good selection of talking heads on bbc etc. The meltdown John Bolton had on TV in 2008 when a black democrat had the temerity to win was something to behold.

The gun toting, basement dwelling virgins won't be out until after their mum cooks their breakfast so I wouldn't expect any concrete warfare until tomorrow lunch time in the event Biden wins.

I don't expect any warfare whatsoever.

However, feel free to throw this bold statement back in my face should there be widespread violence.

[Jambomo]

25 minutes ago, G-MAN said:

48% of voters questioned think Trump had handled Covid well

I think by well they mean “they let me still do the things I want to do and don’t make me wear a mask”. 

[welshbairn]

3 minutes ago, DrewDon said:

Am I supposed to vote for the Democrat who's gonna blast me in the ass, or the Republican who's blasting my ass? Politics is just all one big ass blast. 

Like your thinkings, got a song that goes a little bit with that..

 

[Comrie]

1 minute ago, Andrew Driver said:

 

 

I'm never not convinced that there's a bunch of off the grid nutters ready to swoop in for Trump at the last minute it's Helm's Deep.

[ICTJohnboy]

1 hour ago, welshbairn said:

Do you think Jesus would vote for Trump then?

 

Probably spoil his ballot paper.

[DeeTillEhDeh]

That was an interesting bit on Kentucky voting - in the areas bordering Pennsylvania and Ohio - may give an indication of how PA/OH might go.

 

 

[DeeTillEhDeh]

Michigan not expecting imbalanced reporting of results - the red mirage effect.

[Cheese]

 

[GordonS]

6 minutes ago, DeeTillEhDeh said:

That was an interesting bit on Kentucky voting - in the areas bordering Pennsylvania and Ohio - may give an indication of how PA/OH might go.

 

 

Apparently we get the first results in the Indiana 5th very early, which are indicative of the Midwest, especially suburbs. Dude on Twitter was saying it would be at the back of 11 our time.

[DeeTillEhDeh]

That figure on Obamacare is interesting 52% to 42% want to keep it.

[doulikefish]

Just now, DeeTillEhDeh said:

That figure on Obamacare is interesting 52% to 42% want to keep it.

Yanks are strange on healthcare.My friend lifelong dem worked in Norway for a few years thinks a "state" run health service like the nhs is wrong