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The US Presidential election prediction thread


ICTChris

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42 minutes ago, Inanimate Carbon Rod said:

I was in a cracker barrel in Florida and this American guy (who was keen to tell me he was 1/6?? Skattish) 

He could be, if allowing for rounding, 85 of his 512 great great great great great great great grandparents were Scottish.

I'm guessing he hasn't done the groundwork there though...

 

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6 minutes ago, G51 said:

I'm sure that the people behind Biden's campaign will see just as much opportunity in a UK trade deal as Trumps would.

Americans don't really care about Brexit. It's extremely difficult to see Biden holding out of a US-UK deal that would give him some positive headlines and allow his donors to make more money just because of it.

It's Pouring A Terrible Pint of Guinness lobby vs Military Industrial Complex on the Ireland vs UK issue.

Only one winner.

 

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3 minutes ago, zidane's child said:

Is Biden on 224 or 238? I’m seeing different updates from different news channels 

Guardian have it at 238.

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3 minutes ago, renton said:

What's the point lead? Less than 1%?

I think it's 0.7%, but there's nowhere left for Republicans to realistically make that up.

Worth saying, this will be the 4th time in 6 elections that Wisconsin has been decided by less than 1%, and last time Trump won it by 0.23%. 

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2 minutes ago, Day of the Lords said:

Is Trump in trouble in North Carolina? Showing him on 50.1% with 95% counted. 

1.4% ahead with 5% left. So it isn't 50.1-49.9 (the difference is the Libertarian third candidate). It seems possible for Biden but would expect Trump to hold on. The country featuring the largest city, Charlotte, also has 95% of its votes in so not much left to gain there for Biden.

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1 minute ago, GordonS said:

I think it's 0.7%, but there's nowhere left for Republicans to realistically make that up.

Worth saying, this will be the 4th time in 6 elections that Wisconsin has been decided by less than 1%, and last time Trump won it by 0.23%. 

Could the GOP not trigger a recount?

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