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The US Presidential election prediction thread


ICTChris

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42 minutes ago, Inanimate Carbon Rod said:

I was in a cracker barrel in Florida and this American guy (who was keen to tell me he was 1/6?? Skattish) 

He could be, if allowing for rounding, 85 of his 512 great great great great great great great grandparents were Scottish.

I'm guessing he hasn't done the groundwork there though...

 

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6 minutes ago, G51 said:

I'm sure that the people behind Biden's campaign will see just as much opportunity in a UK trade deal as Trumps would.

Americans don't really care about Brexit. It's extremely difficult to see Biden holding out of a US-UK deal that would give him some positive headlines and allow his donors to make more money just because of it.

It's Pouring A Terrible Pint of Guinness lobby vs Military Industrial Complex on the Ireland vs UK issue.

Only one winner.

 

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3 minutes ago, zidane's child said:

Is Biden on 224 or 238? I’m seeing different updates from different news channels 

Guardian have it at 238.

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3 minutes ago, renton said:

What's the point lead? Less than 1%?

I think it's 0.7%, but there's nowhere left for Republicans to realistically make that up.

Worth saying, this will be the 4th time in 6 elections that Wisconsin has been decided by less than 1%, and last time Trump won it by 0.23%. 

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2 minutes ago, Day of the Lords said:

Is Trump in trouble in North Carolina? Showing him on 50.1% with 95% counted. 

1.4% ahead with 5% left. So it isn't 50.1-49.9 (the difference is the Libertarian third candidate). It seems possible for Biden but would expect Trump to hold on. The country featuring the largest city, Charlotte, also has 95% of its votes in so not much left to gain there for Biden.

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1 minute ago, GordonS said:

I think it's 0.7%, but there's nowhere left for Republicans to realistically make that up.

Worth saying, this will be the 4th time in 6 elections that Wisconsin has been decided by less than 1%, and last time Trump won it by 0.23%. 

Could the GOP not trigger a recount?

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12 minutes ago, Gaz said:

As much as I'd love Biden to win comfortably, it'd be absolute SCENES if it was 270 - 268 and it was won by that Nebraska vote.

I heard this morning that the reason Nebraska has that system in place where they can have split seats was that they felt unrepresented by either party so had the split seating as they knew it could sway elections....might well come through.

I really don't understand* why the EC seats aren't just split by the proportion of votes cast for each party

 

*...when i say i don't understand, i do but it seems mental that they can't/ won't change it for a more democratic/ representative system

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7 minutes ago, Bob Mahelp said:

Very difficult now for Trump to win either Michigan or Wisconsin. The vast majority of the votes to be counted will be for Biden.

 

Democrats now claiming victory in Wisconsin.  I’m beginning to think Biden’s got this.

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