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The US Presidential election prediction thread


ICTChris

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6 minutes ago, BillyAnchor said:

I dont follow that closely but is there any argument about fraud in the senate or other races? Seems strange it is only happening in the presidential.

The arguments are electoral fraud. They are being pursued by Trumps team not (so far as I am aware) the individual senate and house candidates. The allegations are really weak sauce that involve people claiming to have seen something unusual or the observers the parties are allowed at counts to not be close enough and so on. So far those have mostly been dismissed by judges. There are some challenges on when ballots arrived and so on with claims they arrived after the official close of the polls.

There is one sort of legitimate challenge. That is Pennsylvania said it could receive ballots by post up too Friday. Its a question of minutia of state law as to whether these are allowed or not. But they are a very small number and not yet part of the totals so unlikely to change the election. But if they do get a ruling in their favour they might use it as evidence of voter fraud for their twitter bullshitathon. 

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37 minutes ago, LongTimeLurker said:

Have to wonder how many of her devotees on here plan to take a yacht the next time they visit the USA. She is taking the Green rhetoric to its logical conclusion but most people only want to pay lipservice by buying their coffee from a Nicaraguan organic-farming commune or something like that while still flying somewhere exotic for their holidays.

 

You make two rubbish points here.

1) People like me are not flying *anywhere*. I haven't flown in 5 years and I don't plan to fly anywhere again. Her "devotees" aren't flying either. If I told my 16 year old we were flying on holiday he wouldn't get on the plane. The idea that climate campaigners are "flying somewhere exotic for their holidays" is a dumb and baseless stereotype folk like you have invented to feel superior. It's not true.

2) Greta, and everyone on her side of things, constantly say that we're very limited in what we can change through personal actions. We're forced to live in a world we didn't make and if those who feel strongly about it lived like ascetic monks it would be pointlessly self-sacrificing, because there aren't enough of them, it would barely impact emissions and it would do nothing about the things individuals can't control. When Greta is asked what one thing people can do she always says "vote". Only governments can fix this and all the litter-picks and organic coffee in the world won't make any difference.

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1 hour ago, NotThePars said:

Willing to believe Americans are actually really good at spotting sarcasm and just have a countrywide scam going with fucking with tourists

It would be great if that were true, but sadly I fear it isn't. I saw a tweet earlier that wondered how many of the overseas ballots in Georgia are folk that work for the CDC, which has its headquarters in Atlanta. One guy responded that according to his calculations Trump would win 91% to 98% of these ballots. It was obviously a joke, but he got slaughtered in the replies by Americans that didn't get it.

It's weird that a country that produces so much great comedy lacks the day-to-day humour we're used to.

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3 minutes ago, GordonS said:

...and you've absolutely no idea what a threat climate change is to young people, who will live to see the worst of it come true.

In reality, the lower end of the range IPCC predictions are really not that bad, temperature rises have generally underperformed compared to what the models have predicted, and you have no way of knowing for sure how the future is going to unfold any more than Greta does. What is clear is that we are fast running out of the most easily exploited fossil fuels so a gradual transition over to renewables is likely to be happening soon anyway for profit motive reasons. Wind and solar have already reached grid parity in many parts of the world with only the issue of energy storage left to sort out properly before a Green New Deal would need no state subsidy. Things are getting pretty desperate by the time the fossil fuel companies have to resort to fracking to prevent peak oil demand from unfolding, because it has basically been a Ponzi scheme.

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26 minutes ago, GordonS said:

What do you mean by "promoted"?

In what way is renewable energy not already private?

Why would more renewable energy not be a good thing?

If you read into Greta's story she and her family have been linked to publicists and Green NGOs from her initial school strike. She didn't arise unassisted from obscurity any more than Taylor Swift or Ed Sheeran did. 

More green energy is obviously a good thing and inevitable. Costs will fall and the percentage of power generated will increase. The EU as a whole is at 20% just now but aims to be above 80% by 2050. Renewable energy is obviously  largely provided by the private sector at the moment and has to compete with fossil fuels but as they become the majority provider the logic of the market will change and it will make far more sense for the state to provide renewable energy through something similar to the French state owned EDF rather than having it under private sector control for profit.  So it's not about privatising existing renewable energy but ensuring that the future of energy supply is a for profit venture protected by state aid type laws.

The process has already begun with the EU deal with Break Through Energy which is a consortium of all your favourite billionaires such as Gates, Bloomberg, Branson, Soros, Zuckerberg, Ma and Bezos. They obviously plan to extract perpetual rents from tidal, solar, wind and hydro which most people would believe should be in common ownership.

 

Edited by Detournement
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He's lost the place. Not that he ever had the place to begin with. He's no longer the most powerful person on the planet. He's now a pish stained auld pensioner who needs his phone confiscated. 

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17 minutes ago, dorlomin said:

So 16:00 UK 

Doesn't sound like we'll get anything from Nevada, Georgia or North Carolina till next week, and Arizona won't take Biden to 270, so  it's all down to Pennsylvania if we're to get a call this weekend

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Trump needs 57%  to win in Maricopa and got it. But he needs to keep getting this. This does mean AZ will not be callable until the vote count is near done. 

 

Edited that is a lot of the remaining votes. 

Edited by dorlomin
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