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The US Presidential election prediction thread


ICTChris

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5 minutes ago, welshbairn said:

My thing is entirely personal, I hate the c**t. However he loses his Presidential immunity is good for me, so long as it's this coming January and he spends his remaining funds on lawyers defending himself from court to court and ends up in a motel room drinking Draino paid for with food stamps.

He probably still thinks it's an effective cure for Covid

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In De Kalb County, Atlanta, Georgia, apparently 40,000 mail-in ballots were rejected. But voters have until Friday to 'cure' their paper, usually because they've missed a signature of something.

This could well be enough to put Biden over the line, at which point Trumpists will explode. It somehow feels fitting that Georgia could be the cradle of the Second US Civil War.

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8 minutes ago, Zen Archer Esq. said:

Isn't he $400Bn in the hole?

More like $1 billion I heard. His golf courses are pouring money down the drain, his few assets are mortgaged to the hilt, over valued for the loans and undervalued for tax, most of the buildings his name is associated with are for a smallish branding fee that has been rapidly losing value, he doesn't own them. He's a shite businessman, who else could run 4 casinos and go bankrupt on each one? The reason he's been hiding his tax history is because it would destroy his billionaire reputation and people would realise the only thing he's been good at is presenting a reality tv show that fuckwits like to watch.  

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Of the remaining 250,000-ish votes in Georgia, about 220,000 are in very strongly Biden counties. Biden only needs them to break 3-to-2 for him to overcome Trump's lead. 

Edit - did some crunching at county level - if those 220,000 break the same way each of those counties have so far - and as they're mail-ins, they should be a little higher - Biden will take 150,000 to Trump's 70,000. That 80,000 advantage demolishes Trump's current lead.

Edited by GordonS
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34 minutes ago, GordonS said:

In De Kalb County, Atlanta, Georgia, apparently 40,000 mail-in ballots were rejected. But voters have until Friday to 'cure' their paper, usually because they've missed a signature of something.

This could well be enough to put Biden over the line, at which point Trumpists will explode. It somehow feels fitting that Georgia could be the cradle of the Second US Civil War.

Gonna be weird having Chicago being one of the safest places in the country for the next few days. 

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The perception of this election is massively skewed by the order of results. Imagine Florida hadn't come in early, but was last, and before then we had Wisconsin, Michigan, Arizona and Georgia. Biden's popular vote lead is 3.5 million and that's going to keep growing.

Everyone would be calling it for what it is - a solid victory.

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42 minutes ago, GordonS said:

Of the remaining 250,000-ish votes in Georgia, about 220,000 are in very strongly Biden counties. Biden only needs them to break 3-to-2 for him to overcome Trump's lead. 

Edit - did some crunching at county level - if those 220,000 break the same way each of those counties have so far - and as they're mail-ins, they should be a little higher - Biden will take 150,000 to Trump's 70,000. That 80,000 advantage demolishes Trump's current lead.

Current odds, shifting to Dems as favourites. I've noticed that Paddy Power have been last to adjust their odds a couple of times, worth checking if you think you've missed the boat.

image.png.f590c173aa6e896e31b6d7abe65a355f.png

Edited by welshbairn
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