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The US Presidential election prediction thread


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2 minutes ago, Bully Wee Villa said:

I don't think Arizona will be called tonight so unless Georgia is called for Biden soon it will be decided tomorrow or perhaps Friday... subject to litigation.

Georgia ain't happening, it's raining on the midnight train y'all. Sweet dreams.

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Positive moves on the drug reform front as propositions have passed in numerous states. Oregon is the major one as possssion of small amounts of hard drugs has been decriminalised becoming the first US state to do so. Voters in Orgeon have also voted to sanction the use of magic mushrooms for thereaputic purposes.

 

Arizona, Montana, New Jersey & South Dakota have all voted to legalize recreational weed use by adults. This brings the numbers who have legalized thus far to 15 states plus the DoC. Lastly Missisippi have passed a medicinal weed measure.

 

Meanwhile in the UK weed is a class B & we all ken drug reform at Westminister isn't happening anytime soon.

 

 

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16 minutes ago, welshbairn said:

Georgia ain't happening, it's raining on the midnight train y'all. Sweet dreams.

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There's a lot of weirdness in the data online now, the state's own sites shows all precincts counted yet they're also saying they have ballots to count. NYT have stuck at 95% counted, Politico at 98% counted, but if they're both right then Trump took nearly half of the votes between those two things. That seems unlikely, to put it very mildly, considering the locations with uncounted ballots.

I think there must be more than just those 122,535 absentee ballots still to be added to the results. Even if there isn't, to overhaul a 38,126 lead Biden would need to take 66%, which would be completely doable if they're from the counties we're assuming they're from. But it would be very close.

I'm hoping there's more to this than that.

Biden still wins without Georgia, even without Arizona, so long as he gets Pennsylvania. That's the one that gives me the most fear on legal challenge so I'm praying it doesn't come down to that.

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14 minutes ago, Boo Khaki said:

Trumps leads in both GA and PA continue to evaporate. This could yet be fairly comfortable for Biden.

Arizona lead is shrinking, but I am betting he will take Pennsylvania and become President. He will take Nevada and Georgia and will win fairly comfortably. 

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At least Trump won't have to worry about doctoring inauguration photos again.

If he cared so much about wanting to be seen as the most popular president of all time on Day 1, imagine what a re-election failure will do to his fragile little mind.

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3 hours ago, GordonS said:

The perception of this election is massively skewed by the order of results. Imagine Florida hadn't come in early, but was last, and before then we had Wisconsin, Michigan, Arizona and Georgia. Biden's popular vote lead is 3.5 million and that's going to keep growing.

Everyone would be calling it for what it is - a solid victory.

Not even as complex as that. 

The Republican party actively blocked mail in votes being counted in advance and added to the totals before the ballots opened. This step alone would have avoided all of this shit but they didn't want that. 

It's *almost* as if they knew they'd have this to fall back on. Their failsafe, don't win? We can call shenanigans. There was the commander in chief saying he'd do so months back. 🙄

Regardless, the damage they are going to do to themselves long term is catastrophic. They are more or less building the Democrat campaign to retain in 2024 for them. If you're part of the Democrat campaign team, in 4 years from now, you're clearly going to appeal to the undecided or swing voters by going on the offensive that opposition do not respect democracy or the will of the people and will take any decisions they don't like through court.

Of course this will make no difference to the bedded in hardline element of the Republican vote but I know if I was a swing voter or first time Republican voter right now, I'd be wondering what the f**k I just voted for and I'd imagine several million moderate conservatives are doing the same right now. 

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Fairly sizeable gathering of Trump supporters outside the count in Arizona, chanting 'Stop the Steal' etc. CNN reporter on the spot says that many of them are carrying 'long guns'. Sheriff's deputies look to be wearing bullet-proof vests under their shirts. Fun times.

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2 minutes ago, Hedgecutter said:

At least Trump won't have to worry about doctoring inauguration photos again.

If he cared so much about wanting to be seen as the most popular president of all time on Day 1, imagine what a re-election failure will do to his fragile little mind.

Problem is, he's never lost a fight cleanly in his entire life without involving the third party input of a judge. He was never going to do so here either, regardless of how it panned out. Bear in mind, he also did this in the last election too. Said on advance that if Clinton won it would be through nefarious tactics or cheating. He also tried desperately to get this election postponed too, a lot of folk forgetting that as it was first suggested so long ago. 

Complete narcissist. 

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17 minutes ago, djchapsticks said:

Not even as complex as that. 

The Republican party actively blocked mail in votes being counted in advance and added to the totals before the ballots opened. This step alone would have avoided all of this shit but they didn't want that. 

It's *almost* as if they knew they'd have this to fall back on. Their failsafe, don't win? We can call shenanigans. There was the commander in chief saying he'd do so months back. 🙄

Regardless, the damage they are going to do to themselves long term is catastrophic. They are more or less building the Democrat campaign to retain in 2024 for them. If you're part of the Democrat campaign team, in 4 years from now, you're clearly going to appeal to the undecided or swing voters by going on the offensive that opposition do not respect democracy or the will of the people and will take any decisions they don't like through court.

Of course this will make no difference to the bedded in hardline element of the Republican vote but I know if I was a swing voter or first time Republican voter right now, I'd be wondering what the f**k I just voted for and I'd imagine several million moderate conservatives are doing the same right now. 

Not sure about some of that. In 4 years time people's main memory will be that it was very close. Trump 2.0 (Ivanka or Don Jr?) will be well placed to get the GOP nomination arguing that the only reason Trump lost was the "China virus" . With a hostile senate Harris 2024  will be running on  what will be Biden's limited achievements. 

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