Scottish Parliamentary Elections May 2021

[renton]

4 minutes ago, Eddie Hitler said:

Re the Greens:

Don't know about their members one way or the other as far as being 'pro-independence' goes.

However, a recent poll did show that their voters as a whole are pretty much split on the issue. 

That doesn't tell us anything about how pro-independence the leadership is but it probably does mean Patrick Harvie can get away with not exactly being in any hurry at all for Scotland to get independence - because a significant number of his own voters will not punish him for not showing urgency (and may indeed thank him).

Isn't that finding from a fairly small sub sample of Green voters in the Ashcroft poll?

[Double Jack D]

I have to admit to being very disappointed and frustrated at how the three pro indy parties have behaved in this campaign. The hostility from Alba, the falsehoods from SNP on their second vote strategy and the Greens.... well actually the greens have been not too bad.

I'd said before that I'd definitely be SNP1, we need to have the power to assert our constitutional future either now or once the Covid crisis is done. I was Yes in 2014 and the stuff that has happened since has only convinced me further that Scotland needs far far more control over it's resources and policies in order to progress as a nation. The UK is holding us back rather than allowing us to prosper.

My list vote was always gonna be between Greens and Alba. I had hope that Alba would positively invigorate the debate however being led by Alex Salmond has resulted in a toxicity that is probably a bit unfair on some of their prospective candidates. Whilst I could vote for them in Mid Scotland and Fife and have no impact on Salmond being elected, I'm not sure a sizeable chunk of Alba MSP's with him at the helm is the right thing at this time. There is potential there if they could secure alternative leadership in the future however I'm hoping that the next elections are for an indy scotland parliament and their reason for being will have vanished (and the SNP's).

Therefore, I think the second vote will be going green. I'm not fully on board with everything they stand for but on constitutional and environmental issues, which are probably my main priorities, they tick most of my boxes.

[Eddie Hitler]

9 minutes ago, renton said:

Isn't that finding from a fairly small sub sample of Green voters in the Ashcroft poll?

Yes, I believe it is actually. Aware of margin of error being bigger in these and so on. But despite that I think we can safely say that the numbers of unionists among the Green support is going to be larger proportionally than among, say, the SNP, because even something like a 10-11% margin of error in that poll (for the subsample of I think 82) is still going to put it somewhere between a third and over half against independence when I think it's usually like 8 or 9% of SNP voters say they wouldn't vote Yes. Not trying to have a pop at the Greens at all, more to state that not progressing independence is a bigger risk for some parties than for others (given the apparent composition of their vote).

Edited May 4, 2021 by Eddie Hitler

[renton]

1 minute ago, Eddie Hitler said:

Yes, I believe it is actually. Aware of margin of error being bigger in these and so on. But despite that I think we can safely say that the numbers of unionists among the Green support is going to be larger proportionally than among, say, the SNP, because even something like a 10-11% margin of error in that poll (for the subsample of I think 82) is still going to put it somewhere between a third and over half against independence when I think it's usually like 8 or 9% of SNP voters say they wouldn't vote Yes. Not trying to have a pop at the Greens at all, more to state that not progressing independence is a bigger risk for some parties than for others (given the apparent composition of 

On an unweighted sample of 82, the error is going to be absolutely massive, to the point of being useless.

[Eddie Hitler]

Just now, renton said:

On an unweighted sample of 82, the error is going to be absolutely massive, to the point of being useless.

Ok, I won't argue. I haven't studied politics-based stats in many years and I am more than rusty.

[Dawson Park Boy]

1 hour ago, HTG said:

My beef with Alba is that a significant number of their supporters absolutely despise the only realistic prospect of securing independence. They jump on anything and everything the SNP says or does. f**k them. I'll settle for SNP/SNP or SNP/Green rather than some fly-by-night entity which will be even more embittered by the time the count is finished. 

Of course, I could be wrong. Maybe this is just the sort of intolerant shite the people of Scotland want. We'll find out soon enough. 

 

 

 

It does seem a bit weird having a man in such a position, if that’s true!

[NotThePars]

26 minutes ago, Eddie Hitler said:

That doesn't tell us anything about how pro-independence the leadership is but it probably does mean Patrick Harvie can get away with not exactly being in any hurry at all for Scotland to get independence - because a significant number of his own voters will not punish him for not showing urgency (and may indeed thank him).

Hasn't someone just posted this morning that the Greens backed every measure for a referendum in the last parliament and amended legislation that would literally make a Yes vote likelier (16-17 year olds and EU nationals being allowed to vote).

[Lurkst]

11 hours ago, Baxter Parp said:

 

Surely a better strategy would be to call them orange ballots?

 

[Eddie Hitler]

8 minutes ago, NotThePars said:

Hasn't someone just posted this morning that the Greens backed every measure for a referendum in the last parliament and amended legislation that would literally make a Yes vote likelier (16-17 year olds and EU nationals being allowed to vote).

They may have. I did say that I didn't think the polling told us anything about the stance of the leadership as it wasn't a poll of parties' members, but voters. I believe (and still do, because it isn't the Greens' reason for existing like it is the SNP's, for example) that Green leaders are never going to be put under as much pressure by their own voters to deliver independence as other pro-indy parties.

Renton has subsequently called into question whether poll told us much about the Green voters, due to sample size, which is fair enough.

Edited May 4, 2021 by Eddie Hitler

[Antlion]

3 hours ago, trainspotter said:

Judging from this and other pictures I’ve seen of DRoss over the weekend, he must have been told to drop the aggressive posturing and go for the grinning idiot routine instead.

 

[Granny Danger]

1 hour ago, Eddie Hitler said:

Re the Greens:

Don't know about their members one way or the other as far as being 'pro-independence' goes.

However, a recent poll did show that their voters as a whole are pretty much split on the issue. 

That doesn't tell us anything about how pro-independence the leadership is but it probably does mean Patrick Harvie can get away with not exactly being in any hurry at all for Scotland to get independence - because a significant number of his own voters will not punish him for not showing urgency (and may indeed thank him).

The only way the Greens can influence policy is by having a independent Scotland.  So long as Scotland remains part of the U.K. they will be nothing more than a pressure group whose voice will be ignored.  That’s their imperative to show urgency.

[Anonapersona]

2 hours ago, Salt n Vinegar said:

Ooft... The National goes nuclear.... 

https://www.thenational.scot/news/19275828.national-launches-new-digital-billboard-campaign/

My sister lives in the Borders.. she'd love some of these there.!

Agreed. All my family is in the Borders.

All SNP, of course.

[scottsdad]

13 hours ago, Burning Barns said:

So, basically, your beef with ALBA, is that some people who support the party, read a blog which is authored by a guy who called you something on twitter?  I struggle to see how ALBA or Alex Salmond are relevant to your rant or frustration, to be honest.  ALBA are supporting the SNP on the constituency ballot.  WOS, clearly is not.  WOS and ALBA are not the same thing.  It's like claiming The National and the SNP are the same thing.  For what it's worth, I always thought the Wee Ginger Dug was more level-headed. 

The second part of my previous post, which you condescendingly dismissed as Trumpian, is a reference to the fact that Sturgeon called off no-one when Joanna Cherry was being sent vile stuff online.  

I appreciate your efforts in trying to detoxify Alba on here. I see you making a case for them as well as could be made, pointing to their manifesto and arguing that this is what they should be judged on. Fair enough.

But for many the Alba project has many fatal flaws. Many people in it, or supporters of it, are for whatever reason coming across as complete nutjobs. WoS puts out the most hateful bile, and it's Alba supporters who are picking it up and praising it, magnifying it and directing their bile on the other pro-independence parties. Alex Salmond was once the best politician Scotland had to offer, but he has been reduced to an angry husk of what he was. I make the comparison with Trump going after Republicans who were not sufficiently in his corner. Salmond is doing the same with the SNP. 

The old saying I think applies. You fly with the crows, you get shot with the crows. Many people are turned off by the Alba supporters and so won't vote for the Alba party,

[SandyCromarty]

1 hour ago, Eddie Hitler said:

Yes, I believe it is actually. Aware of margin of error being bigger in these and so on. But despite that I think we can safely say that the numbers of unionists among the Green support is going to be larger proportionally than among, say, the SNP, because even something like a 10-11% margin of error in that poll (for the subsample of I think 82) is still going to put it somewhere between a third and over half against independence when I think it's usually like 8 or 9% of SNP voters say they wouldn't vote Yes. Not trying to have a pop at the Greens at all, more to state that not progressing independence is a bigger risk for some parties than for others (given the apparent composition of their vote).

In all reality voters for any party do not have a one singular political issue, all voters have different political outlooks and policies, if we all thought politically along the same lines there would be one political party.

And that's called a dictatorship.

[SANTAN]

16 hours ago, HTG said:

I'm sorry but this is just dugshite. I don't "despise" Alex Salmond but where he was once the most capable proponent of independence, that's no longer the case. He took that coat off in 2014 and his motives for returning are absolutely dubious. He's backed by a significant number of froth-at-the-mouth types. And he's attracted Wings Over Scotland who has had to shift twitter account so he can continue to call people like me a paedophile enabler. You can overlook this shite if you want but if he's not going to call out these absolute arseholes, I hope his campaign collapses in a heap. 

Who have all been SNP backers for the last 10 years..

[SANTAN]

3 hours ago, Salt n Vinegar said:

Ooft... The National goes nuclear.... 

https://www.thenational.scot/news/19275828.national-launches-new-digital-billboard-campaign/

My sister lives in the Borders.. she'd love some of these there.!

Thankfully even the SNP aren't stupid enough to spunk money on the one region that would have the most turmoil in an Independent Scotland. 

[Salt n Vinegar]

9 minutes ago, Stormzy said:

Thankfully even the SNP aren't stupid enough to spunk money on the one region that would have the most turmoil in an Independent Scotland. 

...? The adverts are from The National newspaper not the SNP. Or have I misunderstood your post? 

[SANTAN]

Just now, Salt n Vinegar said:

...? The adverts are from The National newspaper not the SNP. Or have I misunderstood your post? 

Nah I've misunderstood your post. The National are so beyond biased I forget they're not the SNP publication at times! 

Either way, the Borders looks lovely without those eyesores being plastered up anywhere. 

[Anonapersona]

23 minutes ago, Stormzy said:

Thankfully even the SNP aren't stupid enough to spunk money on the one region that would have the most turmoil in an Independent Scotland. 

A bunch of angry servile farmers?

f**k them.

 

[SANTAN]

Just now, Anonapersona said:

A bunch of angry servile farmers?

f**k them.

 

We can't have any SNP voters mentioning servility now... 

That's a great vote winner, you should work on the official campaign.

"Are you worried about losing your job in the event of a hard border..?

Well then, f**k you"