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Russian invasion of Ukraine


Sonam

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21 minutes ago, 101 said:

I think that's fine but should we not cut back the nuclear expenditure to shore up the conventional warfare.

Conventional warfare is vastly more expensive than nuclear, it wouldn't make much of a dent in our conventional capability.

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22 minutes ago, virginton said:

A calculation that is working out about as well as the EU's similar handling of Ukraine before the 2014 revolution and Crimean occupation. 

In 2016, no one invaded

In 2017, no one invaded

In 2018, no one invaded

In 2019, no one invaded

In 2020, no one invaded

In 2021, no one invaded

In 2022, there was the incident with the army

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4 minutes ago, scottsdad said:

Then again, are tanks at the forefront of modern warfare? 

Imagine the French generals in 1940 confident that they had more horses than the Germans (which they did, and boasted about).

Even if they're out by a factor of 5 (for modern warfare) that still leaves them on 2,600 to our combined total of 800 - 1,000

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1 minute ago, renton said:

Apples for oranges. That 13,000 counts all armoured vehicles: infantry carriers, self propelled artillery, anti aircraft vehicles, the lot. Some of which is extremely old.

That's not to say that we still wouldn't be massively outnumbered on our own - hence the whole point of NATO but while all tanks are armoured not all armoured vehicles are tanks.

Hopefully we're a bit ahead on countermeasures eg blowing their tanks up?

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8 minutes ago, ICTChris said:

These are confirmed casualties.  The real number will be much higher.  I'd also say that it's likely the true figures will never be released, espeically by Russia, who since the First Chechen War, have been highly secretive about death tolls.  

On this, I just read from Rob Lee, who has been linked to a lot, that Russia has never acknowledged losing any planes in the Russia-Georgia war in 2008 - there were six Russian planes downed in that war.

 

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1 hour ago, AlbionSaint said:

How's that even a valid comparison? You realise Britain was at war in 1940, don't you? I'm simply commenting on a war between two foreign countries. Also Putin is not Hitler. Calm yourself.

I'm perfectly calm and it's a perfectly valid analogy.  In 1940 Britain faced invasion by a country led by a brutal dictator.  Some people argued that we should throw in the towel because the odds were overwhelming. 

In 2022 the Ukraine is facing invasion by a country led by a brutal dictator.  Some people are arguing that they should throw in the towel because the odds are overwhelming. 

Are you seeing the comparison yet?

For an analogy to work the two things being compared need to be  alike in some respects and different in others.  Finding a difference does not, as you bizarrely imagine, invalidate the analogy.  If there were no differences it would not be an analogy: you would just be comparing something with itself.

Hitler and Putin are alike in some respects, different in others.  They are both brutal, murderous, dictators who sought to invade other countries in pursuit of imperialist ambitions.  For the purposes of my argument they are analagous. 

As for:

What are Zelensky's options? 

1) Unconditional surrender

2) Negotiate

3) Fight to the last man

What does (3) actually achieve? Serious question.

Some people have always prized freedom from life under a brutal foreign dictator over mere survival.  The Few in the Battle of Britain for example.  We are massively indebted to them.  What (3) achieves is keeping that principle alive.  I can think of nothing more important.

 

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13 minutes ago, welshbairn said:

Hopefully we're a bit ahead on countermeasures eg blowing their tanks up?

So actually it is MBTs on that number, but 7000 of those are old T72s in storage and another 3000 T80s in storage. Clearly in terms of the T90 and T14 modern tanks we'd still be outnumbered but that's what NATO is for.

Those older models were already massively over matched by the early M1A1 Abrams and Challenger 1s in 91.

The point of a lot of where the British army wants to go is in terms of precision long range effects. They are expanding the guided MLRS batteries, extending the range of those out to 140km and buying the precision strike missile with range of 499km. They also want to get vast numbers of Brimstone missiles onto a vehicle. The idea of a Boxer vehicle loaded with between 25 and 50 off those and launching them in swarms at massed armoured formations.

The important element though is situational awareness, having the appropriate sensors to find targets at distance and to disseminate that information through a whole signal chain. The idea is to create a sensor- shooter network where you can basically mix and match effects.

Hence the money being sunk into small ISR satellite constellations, drones, electronic warfare and a whole new digital backbone for the army. Sacrificing mass of forces for precise fires.

Edited by renton
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Oh dear, this isn't going to end well......

Both the Ministry of Defence and the Interior Ministry are appealing to Kyiv residents to "inform us of troop movements, to make Molotov cocktails and neutralise the enemy".

A leaflet with step-by step instructions of how to make petrol bombs has been posted on the Ministry of the Interior's social media.

Interior Ministry adviser Vadym Denysenko says 18,000 machine guns "have been handed out in Kyiv to all volunteers, all those who want to defend our capital with weapons in their arms".

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16 minutes ago, scottsdad said:

Then again, are tanks at the forefront of modern warfare? 

Imagine the French generals in 1940 confident that they had more horses than the Germans (which they did, and boasted about).

The French also had more (and typically better) tanks in 1940, and far more aircraft once combined with the British. The Western Allies had no idea how to use them effectively in a battlefield situation though.

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10 minutes ago, ICTChris said:

On this, I just read from Rob Lee, who has been linked to a lot, that Russia has never acknowledged losing any planes in the Russia-Georgia war in 2008 - there were six Russian planes downed in that war.

 

You'd hardly miss 6 out of thousands...

Edited by Jacksgranda
Typo
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12 minutes ago, Game of throw-ins said:

I'm perfectly calm and it's a perfectly valid analogy.  In 1940 Britain faced invasion by a country led by a brutal dictator.  Some people argued that we should throw in the towel because the odds were overwhelming. 

In 2022 the Ukraine is facing invasion by a country led by a brutal dictator.  Some people are arguing that they should throw in the towel because the odds are overwhelming. 

Are you seeing the comparison yet?

The key difference being that Britain in 1940 was an island state, still protected by the world's most powerful navy and a very capable air force. The actual chances of a successful German invasion and occupation therefore remained very low.

If the Germans finished off the entire army at Dunkirk or by some bizarre turn of fortune took out a huge number of ships/planes out in battle, then Britain would likely have sent arch appeaser Lord Halifax to see what terms he could get from that misunderstood chap Mr. Hitler. 

Ukrainians today do not face even remotely the same choices. 

Edited by vikingTON
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