Russian invasion of Ukraine

[Melanius Mullarkey]

False flag.

[LongTimeLurker]

Inside job, thermite etc etc. Only slight downside for the Ukrainians is that the rail link looks like it might be more easily repaired and its the more important of the two for Russian military logistics with no alternative route available via the Donbas that isn't in range of Ukrainian artillery. Who gets to tell Vlad about it must have been an interesting dilemma in the Kremlin though.

[ICTChris]

 

[LongTimeLurker]

 

 

[doulikefish]

Looks like sabotage more than a missile strike 

[ICTChris]

 

[LongTimeLurker]

 

 

They can no doubt solve that last bit by simply driving along the northern shore of the Sea of Azov via Berdyansk and Mariupol but that puts road traffic a lot closer to HIMARS and other missile systems the Ukrainians have at their disposal.

[Hedgecutter]

45 minutes ago, LongTimeLurker said:

Who gets to tell Vlad about it must have been an interesting dilemma in the Kremlin though.

[Silvio Tattiescone]

 

[LongTimeLurker]

Thread that's worth a read on Russian rail logistics in the occupied portions of Ukraine:

 

Not sure why this guy is so confident that ATACMS wasn't involved on the Kerch bridge. Think how it was done is still a mystery.

[Lurkst]

Surprised it's taken so long to attack the bridge.

 

[Elixir]

Hopefully doesn't take the Ruskies too long to get over it. 

[LongTimeLurker]

If Vlad was stupid enough to blow up both Nordstream 1 & 2, this may be NATO's response courtesy of ATACMS sent to Ukraine in the immediate aftermath. Otherwise, if it was the domestic Ukrainian Hrim-2 it's not obvious why the Ukrainians wouldn't do it until now.

Think the boat and lorry bomb theories are far-fetched as the evidence on the road bridge spans appears (happy to be told why I'm wrong) to point to two detonations, and again why wait until now if the Ukrainians always had that capacity?

[welshbairn]

When you see the number of missile hits the Kherson bridge took without doing anything like that much damage, it makes me think another method was involved, unless this bridge is particularly vulnerable.

[sophia]

12 minutes ago, welshbairn said:

When you see the number of missile hits the Kherson bridge took without doing anything like that much damage, it makes me think another method was involved, unless this bridge is particularly vulnerable.

 

[peasy23]

[Hillonearth]

[ICTChris]

 

[LongTimeLurker]

39 minutes ago, welshbairn said:

When you see the number of missile hits the Kherson bridge took without doing anything like that much damage, it makes me think another method was involved, unless this bridge is particularly vulnerable.

The HIMARS missiles used on the Kherson bridge don't have the range so inherently has to be a larger longer range missile if that's how it was done. Also talk of Kerch bridge being built using a less sturdy approach.

[Dev]

28 minutes ago, peasy23 said:

 

As if the Russians needed an excuse to "officially" declare War !

If what is speculated upon on this thread is near the truth, then this could be an "in-house" job designed to give the Russians the excuse to completely lose it and go nuke. The bridge doesn't look as though both road carriageways were affected and the rail line, presumably, is fixable quickly. This line of communications isn't going to be out of action for very long.

Looks suspiciously like a Russian job to me FWIW.