Russian invasion of Ukraine

[LongTimeLurker]

This would be big if it happened given the potential to take out the Kerch Bridge:

But it has been teased for so long that it's very much in believe that when I see it territory. The excuse beyond the fear of what Vlad might do if the Ukrainians took out the Black Sea fleet at Sevastopol using NATO supplied weaponry is that the Americans don't have that many ATACMS left and wanted to keep what they had for a war against China if Taiwan is invaded because its PrSM replacement hadn't entered production yet.

Edited June 29, 2023 by LongTimeLurker

[Ray Patterson]

 

An internal power struggle in Russia?

https://twitter.com/emopunkmedia/status/1555189217231249410

 

 

Edited June 29, 2023 by Ray Patterson

[ClydeTon]

[TxRover]

12 hours ago, ClydeTon said:

If Russia had 95% of their men on that frontline this war would be in a history textbook.

Even Western outlets, such as the staunchly left-wing, anti-Russian CNN, will tell you that Russian losses have amounted to but a fraction of their overall strength. Their army still amounts to 800,000> and there is no chance all of that is deployed.

Russia's only full-scale application has been equipment. Tanks, Planes and Warships have been thrown into this war. Men, less so.

Special Forces and Commando units have been thrown in en masse. It's essentially what they do in the middle east and Africa, but at a larger scale with more regular army backing.

Russia's army (in peacetime) is double the size of Ukraine's today. (1,000,000+ to ~500,000) They wouldn't need Wagner or Conscripts if they didn't choose to throw cannon fodder in first.

I wouldn't say a significant portion. They were estimated to have between 15,000 and 30,000 at the Battle of Kyiv. Even if 25,000 of them were captured or killed, the Russian army is still massive. https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-may-30-2023 - the Institute for Study of War, an American non-profit, suggest they have ~300,000 in Ukraine, as of May 2023.

On the flipside, the CIA estimate Ukraine had ~700,000 in July 2022.

The Russian Army and all paramilitaries amount to almost 1.5 million. There are one hell of a lot of people not fighting this war.

Russia's main losses have been in their equipment. They've lost hundreds upon hundreds of tanks, planes - of course, missiles - and other, more conventional, equipment, like guns and armour.

They still have a large army.

Wagner drove halfway to Moscow because the army chose  to let them. That was quite well reported. Many armed units agreed with Wagner's sentiment but didn't want to join their march.

Why? Well quite simply, the Russian higher-ups are incompetent, probably the reason they're getting held back by Ukraine. Putin's getting rid of the one general who's had a fair bit of success and replacing him with a total dud. The Russian Army are pretty brutal and would love nothing more than a fight, but they won't, I would imagine, want to go to their graves because some twats in Moscow can't make a war plan. Same way most folk here wouldn't want to fight under Rishi Sunak's orders. If you don't have faith/trust in your leaders, you don't want to die for them.

To conclude, and possibly back-pedal a bit, I was dealing in absolutes a bit with my last post:

• I don't, personally, see Ukraine winning this outright.

• Russia aren't using any more than 1/3 of their manpower. They're using a hell of a lot of equipment.

• Wagner were allowed to march towards Moscow because the Russian Army generally dislike the MoD's decision making, the same view as Wagner.

• Russia are almost certainly throwing conscripts and mercenaries in, rather than losing their best men. They have/had an army only comparable to America and China, a very well-trained one at that. They started conscripting within months of the war starting.

My theory, and I doubt we'll ever know, is that they planned to use the trained men for a quick victory, but after the Battle for Kyiv, they realised that the Ukrainians were going to take them to the death. So, they decided to throw in conscripts from the civilian population to try and take out as many Ukrainians as possible, and attempt to weaken them. Has that been successful? Time will tell.

The reality is at the start, Russia had an actual combat capacity of around 200,000 troops, on contracts, in tip of the spear roles, with another 300,000 in various supporting capacities. They were reasonably well trained and equipped, but nowhere near Western standards. The NCO’s were still well below Western NCO training and authority, and Junior Officers were relied upon for many roles filled by Sergeants and Warrant Officers in Western armies. Even the contract troops had limited live fire experience with any equipment beyond personal weapons.

The Kyiv fiasco cost Russian a sizable percentage of these troops killed or injured, and drove the conscription call. Then they had the issue with how do you train these new “soldiers”? Do you pull troops from the field, because you don’t have training capacity in the rear areas for that many raw recruits. So they decided to feed new “troops” into the combat units for training, using the contract soldiers to fill empty NCO roles without additional training…resulting in less capable units, needing more Officer intervention. However, at the same time, the attrition rate for Junior Officers has been horrific due to their exposure. They are truly irreplaceable in the current Russian system, and the result is more General Officers being exposed near the front, and being killed.

The Russian army is now a diluted shadow of its pre-SMO self, and likely now only really good for a defensive role, if even that. The equipment shortages the Russians are facing are crippling their abilities.

8 hours ago, ICTChris said:

I guess it could be that they weren't expecting to be attacked from within Russia, by their own side.  Maybe they weren't configured to defend against the types of anti-air weapons that Wagner had - seems unlikely as quite often Russia and Ukraine have similar weapons.  Maybe they were ordered into flight at short notice, didn't have time to prepare properly and take necessary precautions.

Difficult to really know I guess.

To me it’s pretty simple, these reported drownings seem to have all occurred near airfields. Helicopters and aircraft landing and taking off are much more vulnerable.

7 hours ago, ClydeTon said:

China probably have through the backdoor. They'll do pretty much anything for a bit of money.

North Korea and Iran's guns and stuff will be fairly effective I would imagine. Considering their militarism it would be hard to imagine them making stuff that doesn't work. The Russians will be able to answer the majority of demand but probably not enough to sustain a strong, winning, war effort.

The question becomes how will Russia pay? North Korea will demand food and technology…OK, Russia can probably deliver both, but the NK resource pile is pretty small before it cuts into THEIR reserves. Iran, technology…OK, Russia can pay, but might be sewing seed that could result in a  bitter harvest for themselves later…China, what can Russia offer? Honestly, nothing except gold or minerals perhaps, and in limited amounts. I think the Chinese will sit this supply opportunity out.

[Lurkst]

RIP 

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-12247271/Vice-president-Russian-bank-falls-death-Moscow-apartment-latest-mysterious-fatality.html

[ICTChris]

9 hours ago, Ray Patterson said:

 

An internal power struggle in Russia?

https://twitter.com/emopunkmedia/status/1555189217231249410

 

 

I don't think Igor Sushko is very reliable.

[Sergeant Wilson]

39 minutes ago, Lurkst said:

RIP 

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-12247271/Vice-president-Russian-bank-falls-death-Moscow-apartment-latest-mysterious-fatality.html

When will this madness end?

[Sweet Pete]

2 hours ago, Lurkst said:

RIP 

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-12247271/Vice-president-Russian-bank-falls-death-Moscow-apartment-latest-mysterious-fatality.html

This is worse than Bucha

[LongTimeLurker]

3 hours ago, ICTChris said:

I don't think Igor Sushko is very reliable.

Definitely in Michael MacKay and Anders Aslund sort of territory in letting heart rule head a little too often to be worth listening to. Tend to steer clear of Denys the former pilot on youtube for similar reasons. Worst of the lot though is Chuck Pfarrer the former Navy Seal and prolific creator of highly misleading graphics.

Edited June 30, 2023 by LongTimeLurker

[Newbornbairn]

Misleading graphics like some of the "advances" made by the Ukrainian army. A nice green bulge in a two colour map looks impressive but then you see it with the satellite overlay and they've advanced by a field and a half. 

[TxRover]

6 hours ago, Lurkst said:

RIP 

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-12247271/Vice-president-Russian-bank-falls-death-Moscow-apartment-latest-mysterious-fatality.html

VP of a decent sized bank seems a pretty lofty role for a 28 y-o, let alone one who’s primary job seems to be Instagram pictures.

[Sergeant Wilson]

5 hours ago, TxRover said:

VP of a decent sized bank seems a pretty lofty role for a 28 y-o, let alone one who’s primary job seems to be Instagram pictures.

Don't speak ill of the dead!

[TxRover]

20 minutes ago, Sergeant Wilson said:

Don't speak ill of the dead!

Did they refuse to refund your subscription to her Only Fans?

[Zen Archer (Raconteur)]

 

 

[jagfox]

 

[Salvo Montalbano]

23 minutes ago, jagfox said:

 

It must be close (if it hasn't happened yet) to the point where your average Josef Smozov starts thinking "isn't that the opposite of what they told us last week?" rather than just swallowing whatever bullshit they shovel towards them?

[jagfox]

10 minutes ago, Salvo Montalbano said:

It must be close (if it hasn't happened yet) to the point where your average Josef Smozov starts thinking "isn't that the opposite of what they told us last week?" rather than just swallowing whatever bullshit they shovel towards them?

Oh,I'm sure a lot of Russian people are perfectly aware. They will say things at the dining table they would not dream of saying at work or in a wider audience.

[Guest]

52 minutes ago, jagfox said:

Oh,I'm sure a lot of Russian people are perfectly aware. They will say things at the dining table they would not dream of saying at work or in a wider audience.

Aye, the state is totalitarian now when it comes to the public expression of anti-war sentiment. 

Man jailed for 5 years in March for a comment in a private VKontakte hobby group. Another group member had grassed him: https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2023/03/29/st-petersburg-man-given-5-years-for-comments-made-on-archeology-forum-a80654

This man put up posters advertising a phone number Russian conscripts can call to surrender to Ukrainian authorities. He was arrested, tortured then beaten to death by police earlier this month: https://russianlife.com/the-russia-file/he-warned-police-would-kill-him-he-is-dead/

[Bully Wee Villa]

1 hour ago, Salvo Montalbano said:

It must be close (if it hasn't happened yet) to the point where your average Josef Smozov starts thinking "isn't that the opposite of what they told us last week?" rather than just swallowing whatever bullshit they shovel towards them?

Oceania was at war with Eastasia. Oceania had always been at war with Eastasia.

[ICTChris]

9 hours ago, FreedomFarter said:

Aye, the state is totalitarian now when it comes to the public expression of anti-war sentiment. 

Man jailed for 5 years in March for a comment in a private VKontakte hobby group. Another group member had grassed him: https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2023/03/29/st-petersburg-man-given-5-years-for-comments-made-on-archeology-forum-a80654

This man put up posters advertising a phone number Russian conscripts can call to surrender to Ukrainian authorities. He was arrested, tortured then beaten to death by police earlier this month: https://russianlife.com/the-russia-file/he-warned-police-would-kill-him-he-is-dead/

Prigozhin shot down six or seven Russian aircraft and he gets a holiday to Belarus. Nice.

 

One thing I read about Russian opinion that was worth sharing was when the independent anti-Kremlin outlet Medusa surveyed their readers who support the war and asked why. The reasons are interesting. Bear in mind these are people reading an anti-Kremlin publication that is difficult to access and has taken a stance against the war and against war propaganda.

https://meduza.io/amp/en/feature/2023/06/03/the-only-thing-worse-than-war-is-losing-one