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Russian invasion of Ukraine


Sonam

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What's the realistic end game to this shitshow then? Obviously as much as Russia have made themselves look pretty shite at War, Putin has too big an ego to stand down. Will it be a compromise that Russia retain the areas they've taken and claim victory? Does Putin nuke Kiev? Or all out WW3?...

Read that Russia's economy had done ok last year but "experts" expect them to take a nosedive soon. 

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4 hours ago, 19QOS19 said:

What's the realistic end game to this shitshow then? Obviously as much as Russia have made themselves look pretty shite at War, Putin has too big an ego to stand down. Will it be a compromise that Russia retain the areas they've taken and claim victory? Does Putin nuke Kiev? Or all out WW3?...

Read that Russia's economy had done ok last year but "experts" expect them to take a nosedive soon. 

If the U.S. Republicans continue to deny aid to Ukraine, Russia has a realistic path to at least a partial victory, however it’s by no means assured.

If other European countries follow Denmark’s example and toss all they can at supporting Ukraine, Russian victory seems unlikely.

If the U.S. Republicans finally agree to release support, Russia will bleed money and lives until Putin either dies or is overthrown (probably the same result).

 

The Republicans can’t support Ukraine because the money spent is paid to U.S. companies, improving the economy in the run up to the election…can’t support them against Russia because Putin is what they want as a leader. The Danes have done the math…if they need the artillery IN Denmark, Danes are dying to stop Russia, if they give the artillery to Ukraine, it’s not Danes dying to stop Russia.

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11 minutes ago, TxRover said:

If the U.S. Republicans continue to deny aid to Ukraine, Russia has a realistic path to at least a partial victory, however it’s by no means assured.

If other European countries follow Denmark’s example and toss all they can at supporting Ukraine, Russian victory seems unlikely.

If the U.S. Republicans finally agree to release support, Russia will bleed money and lives until Putin either dies or is overthrown (probably the same result).

 

The Republicans can’t support Ukraine because the money spent is paid to U.S. companies, improving the economy in the run up to the election…can’t support them against Russia because Putin is what they want as a leader. The Danes have done the math…if they need the artillery IN Denmark, Danes are dying to stop Russia, if they give the artillery to Ukraine, it’s not Danes dying to stop Russia.

I've really not been paying enough attention to it all so my questions will undoubtedly sound stupid but I'm not even sure what a Russia victory is - taking the whole of Ukraine? 

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5 hours ago, 19QOS19 said:

What's the realistic end game to this shitshow then? Obviously as much as Russia have made themselves look pretty shite at War, Putin has too big an ego to stand down. Will it be a compromise that Russia retain the areas they've taken and claim victory? Does Putin nuke Kiev? Or all out WW3?...

Read that Russia's economy had done ok last year but "experts" expect them to take a nosedive soon. 

The Ruskies will surrender soon, now we've put the fear of God into them.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/what-is-trident-uk-confirms-second-nuclear-test-failure/ar-BB1iEgEm

 

Oh wait...

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1 hour ago, 19QOS19 said:

I've really not been paying enough attention to it all so my questions will undoubtedly sound stupid but I'm not even sure what a Russia victory is - taking the whole of Ukraine? 

Russian strategic win (pre-attack and current) was taking over Ukraine and either installing a puppet regime or annexing.

Current tactical Russian win, retaining lands in the East and Crimea plus an agreement with Ukraine to remain out of NATO.

Russian tactical loss, retain what they hold but Ukraine joins NATO.

Russian strategic loss, lose some or all of the territory they help before the attack AND Ukraine joins NATO.

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4 hours ago, Theroadlesstravelled said:

The Democrats are mad they can’t wage more war to try and mend the economy and win the election. All under the guise of national security.

 

Too bad the economy is fine.

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15 hours ago, 19QOS19 said:

Read that Russia's economy had done ok last year but "experts" expect them to take a nosedive soon. 

Both Ukraine and Russia have reoriented their national economies in line with the war although in very different ways. Russia are trying to do it all with public spending while Ukraine are trying to do it all with private foreign investment.

Russia: https://www.aljazeera.com/opinions/2022/10/26/russias-military-keynesianism

Ukraine: https://time.com/6691662/ai-ukraine-war-palantir/

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1 hour ago, Salvo Montalbano said:

You've got to ask yourself, which one looks worse? 

Here is the Russian news.

 "Good news from the battlefield today, when it was established that the new missile system works perfectly..."

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On 23/02/2024 at 19:01, virginton said:

A rare break of sanity among the unhinged, Cold War II fantasism still somehow circulating. 

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2024/feb/23/war-ukraine-russia-threat-europe-rearm-us

I think that's a fair assessment, but persuading a lot of European NATO countries that spending on the military gives you influence, and influence not to use it, is difficult.

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On 23/02/2024 at 19:01, virginton said:

A rare break of sanity among the unhinged, Cold War II fantasism still somehow circulating. 

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2024/feb/23/war-ukraine-russia-threat-europe-rearm-us

Based on this presumably. https://quincyinst.org/research/the-diplomatic-path-to-a-secure-ukraine/#contours-of-a-compromise

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