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Russian invasion of Ukraine


Sonam

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1 hour ago, virginton said:

Those are two mutually exclusive positions. If the military situation is serious enough then it's time for both sides to make serious compromises at the negotiating table, shut this very serious violence down and for Western states to provide economic assistance and other incentives to do so (the military aid will keep flowing for some time to come). 

 

51 minutes ago, virginton said:

The West's objective should be to force both sides to the negotiating table by showing them the excessively high costs of further warfare. But that requires Western sticks as well as carrots given to Ukraine's government too, if a ceasefire is to be durable. 

Yeah, although I do wonder what is being or has been said to the Ukrainian government by the West behind closed doors since 2014 given the flow of arms into the country (some of which are invariably ending up in the hands of some very unpleasant people) and the failure to resolve the issues in the Donbas since then. 

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8 minutes ago, Stellaboz said:

Why is the assumption that if NATO enforces a no-fly zone over Ukraine that Putin will get the nukes out? Surely to f**k he's not that stupid? He's mad, but not stupid. 

It's the potential for escalation. 

The no-fly zone can only be enforced by shooting down Russian planes and then suddenly NATO is at war with Russia. 

Russia either then retaliates or withdraws (the former certainly the most likely) and no-one knows how that ends. It almost certainly will not end with only an aerial battle over Ukraine and the pains to avoid it are pretty telling. 

Edited by Michael W
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7 minutes ago, Stellaboz said:

Why is the assumption that if NATO enforces a no-fly zone over Ukraine that Putin will get the nukes out? Surely to f**k he's not that stupid? He's mad, but not stupid. 

Because a no fly zone involves NATO attacking Russians including on Russian soil.

It's not just a button you press and the planes can't fly any more.

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4 minutes ago, TheScarf said:

More peace talks today apparently.

This is when they were due to restart.

Rumours are that Russia has flown Yanukovych to Minsk and are looking for him to be involved in some sort of new Ukrainian government.  He is the President who was overthrown in 2014 and has been sitting in a Russian dacha since.

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17 minutes ago, ICTChris said:

Rumours are that Russia has flown Yanukovych to Minsk and are looking for him to be involved in some sort of new Ukrainian government.  He is the President who was overthrown in 2014 and has been sitting in a Russian dacha since.

Interview in 2015.

 

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18 minutes ago, ICTChris said:

This is when they were due to restart.

Rumours are that Russia has flown Yanukovych to Minsk and are looking for him to be involved in some sort of new Ukrainian government.  He is the President who was overthrown in 2014 and has been sitting in a Russian dacha since.

"restoring the democratically elected president who was deposed by a western backed coup" no doubt

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45 minutes ago, Stellaboz said:

Why is the assumption that if NATO enforces a no-fly zone over Ukraine that Putin will get the nukes out? Surely to f**k he's not that stupid? He's mad, but not stupid. 

There is no point in having nukes unless you are willing or at least look willing to use them. 

Nuclear diplomacy has been founded on respecting that position as genuine and it has successfully kept us all alive for the past 70 years. 

Anyone who genuinely thinks NATO  should gamble that Russia is bluffing is a fucking moron. 

Edited by Detournement
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42 minutes ago, oaksoft said:

Yeah that was my direct quote and I was talking about life in Scotland.

II grew up in the 70s and 80s. As much as I remember music being better, it wasn't a great time in our history either.

I do remember the 90s being a marked improvement.

Tge 70's were horrible. Tory government under Heath, miners strike, 3 day week, unions in winter of discontent, failed Scottish devolution vote, oil crises, Thatcher Government. Utterly miserable decade.

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36 minutes ago, welshbairn said:

Zelensky said Russia has to stop bombing Ukrainian cities first. That was yesterday though.

That sounds an awful lot like a precondition, for peace talks that are meant to be held without any. 

It's quite obvious that attacks will not stop prior to a ceasefire - that's whole point of declaring a ceasefire. Once you get that in place, then negotiations can begin for a more enduring settlement. 

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23 minutes ago, Mackie The Staggie said:

There is a very fine line between Mad and Stupid.

MAD works on two levels. Mutually Assured Destruction means that a sane party wouldn't escalate to using nukes, but for deterrence of a full scale conventional war it requires the possibility of believing that the other party might just be insane.

Edited by welshbairn
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