The Run-in

[oneteaminglasgow]

St Johnstone also have Callum Hendry in the form of his life just now. I wouldn’t fancy any of the playoff hopefuls against them tbh.

[Andy_K_97]

18 minutes ago, oneteaminglasgow said:

St Johnstone also have Callum Hendry in the form of his life just now. I wouldn’t fancy any of the playoff hopefuls against them tbh.

I wish we'd have been able to keep him for a bit longer. Earlier in the season I wondered if we'd try to sign him on a pre-contract given how poor the Saintees were, but I can't see us being able to tempt him if they stay up.

[oneteaminglasgow]

3 minutes ago, Andy_K_97 said:

I wish we'd have been able to keep him for a bit longer. Earlier in the season I wondered if we'd try to sign him on a pre-contract given how poor the Saintees were, but I can't see us being able to tempt him if they stay up.

Aye, I always thought he wasn’t up to much previously and then he looked good at Killie so I thought maybe he’s found his level in the Championship but fair play to him since he’s gone back.

If St Johnstone go down, I think he’ll be away but I doubt Killie will be the only team in for him. 

[jagsfan57]

On 02/04/2022 at 20:23, craigkillie said:

 

 

 

 

 

That's Arbroath played just 2 of those "other 5" games and it's already impossible for them to win 4 of those. It's now guaranteed that what I said is correct - 10 points from our last 6 games (now 6 points from our last 4) will be enough as long as 3 of those are against Arbroath.

It certainly sounds easy. 

[AyrshireTon]

On 03/04/2022 at 11:44, Nightmare said:

St Johnstone are now only 6 points behind St Mirren, who are on a stinking run of form. It's getting to the point where there's a realistic chance that StJ will survive outright, which seems remarkable based on how they played up until about a month ago.

That sounds rather nice.

I’d support anyone in the play-offs if it brought the midden down. Even ICT (in spite of that cnut Dodds).

[Thumper]

ISTR predicting that the gap between 5th and 6th would close as the season went on and the bottom half binned their terrible managers to be laughed off. Still a slim chance that Hamilton will make the playoffs.

[Estragon]

40 minutes ago, Thumper said:

Still a slim chance that Hamilton will make the playoffs.

Surely not...seems like an awfully big gap this late on.

I thought Morton might have made it, but had a small but damaging slump immediately after I told my Dad after a few pints that I thought they'd get promoted...

[TheScarf]

Nah, 4 of the current top 5 will get the play off places.

[Dunning1874]

Morton winning every remaining game probably wouldn't be enough to make fourth. It would be enough for Hamilton, but neither of those sides are having that run of results anyway.

It wouldn't take a particularly outrageous set of results for one of Raith and Partick to end up 6th from here, but there is no way both of them are collapsing badly enough for Hamilton to sneak in.

[oneteaminglasgow]

Due to GD, Hamilton essentially have to be getting 8 points more than we do over the next four games to make the playoffs. If we pick up a single win, that means them winning all four - against Arbroath, Caley, Morton and Raith.

It’s theoretically possible, but I’d be stunned if it happened. 

[San Starko Rover]

Can’t see Accies making the top 4 they’re no where near consistent enough to win all 4 (3 games are against the top 5)  their win against Partick aside they’re mostly drawing games the other win was against 10 men. Their chance of nicking 5th probably depends on Wednesday night, if Raith beat the Pars the top 5 is probably confirmed.  A loss or draw and they’ve a chance of overtaking us but they’d really need to beat us and hope we collapse in the final 4 games.  

[eez-eh]

If they’d hung on on Friday night they’d have an outside chance. Very hard to see it now.

[cdhafc1874]

After how shite we've been all season even if we somehow miraculously win our last 4 games & make the playoffs that would be more an indictment of the poor quality of this league this season than anything else!

[jaggyness]

You know what this thread is missing? Some of the frankly brilliant simulations that@Fuctifano does so we can see the likelihood of each team making the play offs, champions etc

[Fuctifano]

I haven't posted this year because I fucked about with the formula after Cove and the shortened season messed up the model last year. Teams now get bigger rating swings, and also I based the starting ratings off bookies odds rather than previous season finishing position. 

So Arbroath were wildly underrated and Dunfermline overrated but just after the halfway point of the season Arbroath were the highest rated team in the league. 

Even though Hamilton and Morton are now rated higher that Thistle and Raith the model thinks it's not by enough of an amount to overcome the points gap. Thistle playing Raith and the chance one of the teams will win probably helps too. 

As always, the percentages are individually rounded so might not seem to add up to 100%.

The figures on the right are the points total at which the outcome becomes more likely than not, and then the points total at which there's a 90% or greater chance of the outcome, so if you get to 53 points you'll almost certainly be in the playoffs and safe at 40 points (easy to say with 4 games to go, about Christmas that 90% figure for 4th or higher was 58 points before the arse fell out of us, Raith and Caley) 

[19QOS19]

80% safety for Ayr seems mentally high. I bet not one of their fans are that confident. If Dunfermline win the mora I expect those percentages will be a whole lot different. I'd have us in the 90% of 10th if it happens.

[Thumper]

21 minutes ago, 19QOS19 said:

80% safety for Ayr seems mentally high. I bet not one of their fans are that confident.

That's vibes though, not stats. Every Ayr fan is mentally picturing yet another embarrassing capitulation to Airdrie, but being five clear and having yet to play both teams below them obviously puts the odds in their favour. The five-point gap between 8th and 9th is actually the second-biggest in the league now.

[Fuctifano]

32 minutes ago, 19QOS19 said:

80% safety for Ayr seems mentally high. I bet not one of their fans are that confident. If Dunfermline win the mora I expect those percentages will be a whole lot different. I'd have us in the 90% of 10th if it happens.

If Dunfermline win tomorrow (by a not obscene amount) it goes to 70% for Ayr, they're still 2 points ahead with 4 games to go and the model has the two teams at almost identical strength. 

You're right about QoS, goes to 89% down with a Pars win tomorrow. 

Conversely a Raith win puts Ayr at 88% safe (and narrows the gap for 4th to 60-40 while ending Hamilton and Morton's slim hopes) 

[parsforlife]

2 minutes ago, Fuctifano said:

If Dunfermline win tomorrow (by a not obscene amount) it goes to 70% for Ayr, they're still 2 points ahead with 4 games to go and the model has the two teams at almost identical strength. 

 

That doesn't sound too unreasonable. that model probably guesses we match each others results( with ayr having the slighter easier run in having inverness at home over killie away at the weekend) and especially thinks we'd draw the vital game at east end.  Flip that to a pars win(assuming matched results at the weekend) and it will go to about 50/50 I'd guess.

We basically need at few things to go our way to get it back to that.  Not unreasonable to have ayr as decent favourites at this stage.

[HoBNob]

1 hour ago, 19QOS19 said:

80% safety for Ayr seems mentally high. I bet not one of their fans are that confident. If Dunfermline win the mora I expect those percentages will be a whole lot different. I'd have us in the 90% of 10th if it happens.

We've won 5 games in 31 attempts so far this season. 

To stay up we'll probably need to win three of our last five. That's pretty unlikely.