D'Jaffo Posted April 5, 2022 Share Posted April 5, 2022 We still need a win and maybe a draw to be completely safe and I’m still not sure where it’s coming from. Dunfermline is probably our easiest chance of a win purely because of our dire record at Palmerston. Even then I’m not convinced we can turn them over. Caley are pretty secure in the playoffs so hopefully they take it easy on Saturday and give us a point or three. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
C4mmy31 Posted April 6, 2022 Share Posted April 6, 2022 1 hour ago, D'Jaffo said: Caley are pretty secure in the playoffs so hopefully they take it easy on Saturday and give us a point or three. ICT still have a chance to grab 2nd which would mean 2 less playoff games, they'll be after the 3 points themselves. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AUcal Posted April 6, 2022 Share Posted April 6, 2022 When we won League 1 a few years back we were 5 points clear with 3 games to go. And still went into the final day in 2nd. "that's the fucking left back", and all that fun. I'm not confident that we are close to safe yet. Results going favourably this week/coming weekend may change that. But we still need to play Pars and Queens away from home. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Flash Posted April 6, 2022 Share Posted April 6, 2022 10 hours ago, Grant228 said: We've won 5 games in 31 attempts so far this season. To stay up we'll probably need to win three of our last five. That's pretty unlikely. Aye, but 2 of the games are v Ayr and Queens who you’ve beaten already. Pretty much guaranteed to beat Queens on the last day, so if you can beat Ayr, you’d only need 1 other win to get the 9 points. In any case, even if you don’t get the 9 points, you will be safe from 10th. Dunfermline are effectively 6 points above Queens when you factor in the last game of the season. And Queens aren’t getting 6 points from their other games. If Dunfermline beat Raith, the gap is effectively 9 points and Queens are more or less relegated tonight. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheScarf Posted April 6, 2022 Share Posted April 6, 2022 6 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rob1885 Posted April 6, 2022 Share Posted April 6, 2022 I haven't posted this year because I fucked about with the formula after Cove and the shortened season messed up the model last year. Teams now get bigger rating swings, and also I based the starting ratings off bookies odds rather than previous season finishing position. So Arbroath were wildly underrated and Dunfermline overrated but just after the halfway point of the season Arbroath were the highest rated team in the league. Even though Hamilton and Morton are now rated higher that Thistle and Raith the model thinks it's not by enough of an amount to overcome the points gap. Thistle playing Raith and the chance one of the teams will win probably helps too. As always, the percentages are individually rounded so might not seem to add up to 100%. The figures on the right are the points total at which the outcome becomes more likely than not, and then the points total at which there's a 90% or greater chance of the outcome, so if you get to 53 points you'll almost certainly be in the playoffs and safe at 40 points (easy to say with 4 games to go, about Christmas that 90% figure for 4th or higher was 58 points before the arse fell out of us, Raith and Caley) Don't like our chances of finishing 8th. Do it again please. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RiG Posted April 6, 2022 Share Posted April 6, 2022 Not a fan of moving the 2nd leg of the final to a Monday night. Good that the games are on TV but I think it's a real shame that none of the Premiership playoffs will take place on a weekend. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
craigkillie Posted April 6, 2022 Share Posted April 6, 2022 It was a Monday night last year too. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RiG Posted April 6, 2022 Share Posted April 6, 2022 It was a Monday night last year too.Still guff to have it on a weeknight. Shame it's not on the Sunday as it used to be but with Sky picking it up they won't want anything deviating from their coverage of the English Premier League coverage that day. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GiGi Posted April 9, 2022 Share Posted April 9, 2022 Carlsberg day for Morton. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
parsforlife Posted April 9, 2022 Share Posted April 9, 2022 Set up for a mental 3 weeks at the bottom. A single goal victory for us puts things dead level for 8th. Play-off for the playoff could happen. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
craigkillie Posted April 9, 2022 Share Posted April 9, 2022 Set up for a mental 3 weeks at the bottom. A single goal victory for us puts things dead level for 8th. Play-off for the playoff could happen.You'd be ahead of Ayr on head-to-head if that happened. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TxRover Posted April 9, 2022 Share Posted April 9, 2022 Well, that certainly cleared up expectations a bit. With pretty much everyone having 3 to play, it seems pretty clear cut now: Killie will likely win it. Arbroath second, with ICT and Partick settling 3 and 4. Raith are crawling to the line, with Morton and the Accies close behind, those three will take 5-7. Ayr are on the inside track for 8, but the Pars will have something to say about it. Queens are doomed. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TONTROOPER Posted April 9, 2022 Share Posted April 9, 2022 Almost a perfect set of results today from a Morton perspective. The only slight blemish was Ayr securing a point from being 2 down against ICT but credit to Ayr for strong fightback. As for ICT... no dinner for you guys tonight. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
parsforlife Posted April 9, 2022 Share Posted April 9, 2022 14 minutes ago, craigkillie said: You'd be ahead of Ayr on head-to-head if that happened. Yas. Beat them, same results vs Patrick and QoS= party time 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DUAFC Posted April 10, 2022 Share Posted April 10, 2022 6 hours ago, TxRover said: Killie will likely win it. Reckon......fun Fri night up at Schnecky then a visit from the champions elect. Bring it on !! 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trogdor Posted April 10, 2022 Share Posted April 10, 2022 6 hours ago, parsforlife said: Yas. Beat them, same results vs Patrick and QoS= party time 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheScarf Posted April 10, 2022 Share Posted April 10, 2022 Arbroath v St Johnstone in the play off final it is then. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Andy_K_97 Posted April 10, 2022 Share Posted April 10, 2022 Any update on the percentages @Fuctifano? 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fuctifano Posted April 10, 2022 Share Posted April 10, 2022 They're on my work laptop which I try not to open on a Sunday will fire them up first thing tomorrow. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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