Ginaro Posted October 19, 2022 Share Posted October 19, 2022 19 minutes ago, Matty-RCFC said: (who’s name escapes me but know I’m giving you full credit) Twas me - couldn't do it last time as the site was down, and you've saved me doing it this time I did it in Excel first then copied it over to help with the formatting. There's also home advantage to be considered, which is accounted for in the +/- calculations after each game, which might narrow/extend the advantage for some clubs. Used this for the SFA's Scottish Cup predictor as well. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matty-RCFC Posted October 20, 2022 Share Posted October 20, 2022 Twas me - couldn't do it last time as the site was down, and you've saved me doing it this time [emoji4] I did it in Excel first then copied it over to help with the formatting. There's also home advantage to be considered, which is accounted for in the +/- calculations after each game, which might narrow/extend the advantage for some clubs. Used this for the SFA's Scottish Cup predictor as well.I probably should’ve just waited for you to do it yourself. How did you account for home advantage? Boost each teams rating by a certain amount? 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bairn88 Posted October 20, 2022 Share Posted October 20, 2022 Anyone know when the draw for the next round is, after the weekend’s games? 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginaro Posted October 20, 2022 Share Posted October 20, 2022 4 hours ago, Matty-RCFC said: I probably should’ve just waited for you to do it yourself. How did you account for home advantage? Boost each teams rating by a certain amount? I asked the guy for a spreadsheet so I could work out the "predicted" scores, i.e. the score that would result in a close to zero +/- for a match, and the calculation formula included +100 points on the ranking for the home team to account for home advantage. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matty-RCFC Posted October 20, 2022 Share Posted October 20, 2022 Anyone know when the draw for the next round is, after the weekend’s games? Monday 24th, 4pm. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bairn88 Posted October 20, 2022 Share Posted October 20, 2022 1 hour ago, Matty-RCFC said: Monday 24th, 4pm. Thanks! 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
glasgow-sheep Posted October 21, 2022 Share Posted October 21, 2022 I seem to remember last year in the Scottish Cup thread, a poster (who’s name escapes me but know I’m giving you full credit) used the ScotScore website’s ranking points as a method of measuring the two teams in different leagues together. Whilst not a sure fire 100% prediction rate, I seem to remember that the system got the vast majority of the predictions right. So, I’ve decided, as I am sad and seem to have a lot of disposable time, that I would do the same for this round of the cup. https://scotscores.theroonba.com/clubrank/clubrank.html - here is the link for the website if anyone is interested. Note - I’ve measured clubs with a gap of 50 or less as expected to draw. Anything more and the side with the higher ranking is expected to win. FridayCumnock - 2670Dumbarton - 2741Difference - -71DUMBARTONSaturdayBrechin - 2763Stirling - 2839Difference - -76STIRLINGBo’ness - 2626Auchinleck - 2767Difference - -141AUCHINLECKBuckie - 2749Broomhill - 2629Difference - +120BUCKIECarnoustie - 2611Formartine - 2613Difference - -2DRAWDalbeattie - 2403Darvel - 2813Difference - -410DARVELDunbar - 2438Stirling Uni - 2651Difference - -213STIRLING UNIDunipace - 2517Banks o’Dee - 2665Difference - -148BANKS O DEEEast Kilbride - 2749Caley Braves - 2640Difference - +109EAST KILBRIDEElgin - 2744Camelon - 2385Difference - +359ELGINFraserburgh - 2699Stranraer - 2704Difference - -5DRAWGlasgow Uni - 2354Albion Rovers - 2702Difference - -348ALBION ROVERSGretna - 2436Drumchapel - 2637Difference - +201DRUMCHAPELKilwinning - 2713Forfar - 2707Difference - +6 DrawLinlithgow - 2720Spartans - 2691Difference - +29DRAWNewtongrange Star - 2503Hill of Beath - 2580 Difference - -71HILL OF BEATHSauchie - 2613Bonnyrigg - 2716Difference - -103BONNYRIGG ROSEStenhousemuir - 2749East Fife - 2761Difference - -12DRAWWick - 2374Benburb - 2547Difference - -173BENBURBOf course, this doesn’t take into account things like red cards, the venue, weather conditions etc. - it’s pretty much measured on a form basis. It’s just quite interesting to see how teams in different leagues match up against each other.Brilliant, but what about Pollok v Annan? 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matty-RCFC Posted October 21, 2022 Share Posted October 21, 2022 Brilliant, but what about Pollok v Annan? Using the +100 scenario that@Ginaro did last year, then it would be:Pollok - 2792Annan - 2716Difference - +76With Annan in such bad nick, it’s probably as good a chance as you’ll get for an ‘upset’ in this round IMO. Maybe Kilwinning/Forfar too. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BinoBalls Posted October 21, 2022 Share Posted October 21, 2022 I like the idea of a Scotland-wide rating system but i’d take the source website with a pinch of salt. For example it rates Brechin as 36th best Scottish team, whereas Clyde are down in 50th. I know Clyde aren’t doing brilliantly but they’re 2 leagues above Brechin at the moment. I suspect the system is putting too much weight into recent results and not enough into the overall “class” of the team. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Binos Posted October 21, 2022 Share Posted October 21, 2022 1 minute ago, BinoBalls said: I like the idea of a Scotland-wide rating system but i’d take the source website with a pinch of salt. For example it rates Brechin as 36th best Scottish team, whereas Clyde are down in 50th. I know Clyde aren’t doing brilliantly but they’re 2 leagues above Brechin at the moment. I suspect the system is putting too much weight into recent results and not enough into the overall “class” of the team. Momentum can count for a lot 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FairWeatherFan Posted October 21, 2022 Share Posted October 21, 2022 4 hours ago, BinoBalls said: I like the idea of a Scotland-wide rating system but i’d take the source website with a pinch of salt. For example it rates Brechin as 36th best Scottish team, whereas Clyde are down in 50th. I know Clyde aren’t doing brilliantly but they’re 2 leagues above Brechin at the moment. I suspect the system is putting too much weight into recent results and not enough into the overall “class” of the team. They're split 2763-2712 which is a relatively fine margin. Any attempt at rankings are going to be wonky, but then so is saying there's a couple of tiers between teams. For all anyone can say at this point Brechin and Clyde will be playing in the same league next season. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginaro Posted October 21, 2022 Share Posted October 21, 2022 4 hours ago, BinoBalls said: I like the idea of a Scotland-wide rating system but i’d take the source website with a pinch of salt. For example it rates Brechin as 36th best Scottish team, whereas Clyde are down in 50th. I know Clyde aren’t doing brilliantly but they’re 2 leagues above Brechin at the moment. I suspect the system is putting too much weight into recent results and not enough into the overall “class” of the team. Clyde are 31st in the pyramid, while Brechin are =43rd. That's basically just one league separating them. It may overestimate those at the top of their league and underestimate those at the bottom of their league, but it's a decent enough ranking. Cumnock 2670 and Dumbarton 2741, home advantage closed the gap but the higher ranked side won. Suppose we'll see tomorrow how accurate it is... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cdhafc1874 Posted October 21, 2022 Share Posted October 21, 2022 It seems only McBookie have priced up all the Scottish Cup ties tomorrow - only Stenhousemuir vs East Fife is listed elsewhere & that'll be as the ignorant eejits at those bookies are assuming it's a league game! Anyone see any value in any of the McBookie prices? 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LoonsYouthTeam Posted October 21, 2022 Share Posted October 21, 2022 It seems only McBookie have priced up all the Scottish Cup ties tomorrow - only Stenhousemuir vs East Fife is listed elsewhere & that'll be as the ignorant eejits at those bookies are assuming it's a league game! Anyone see any value in any of the McBookie prices?21/10 for Kilwinning to beat us is huge. We may well win but that's tasty as a single 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matty-RCFC Posted October 22, 2022 Share Posted October 22, 2022 The games have been released on Betfair. Drumchapel 7/2 to beat Gretna stands out. Carnoustie at 15/2 to beat Formartine also seems a wee bit mental. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CM. Posted October 22, 2022 Share Posted October 22, 2022 Bookies are lazy as f**k in the early rounds of the cup, particularly Hills who are supposed to be the sponsors of the tournament. Betfair showing Gretna v Lochee Utd for me 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superbigal Posted October 22, 2022 Share Posted October 22, 2022 (edited) Carnoustie & Drumchapel double 39/1 BetVictor for me Edited October 22, 2022 by superbigal 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Karl Berg Posted October 22, 2022 Share Posted October 22, 2022 I generally find McBookie generous with their odds for the draw. A few anomalies Talbot Evens away to Bo”ness at McBookie but Oddschecker saying Coral are more than double at 21/10. Dunbar at home to Stirling Uni 10/1 Betfair and PP but only 21/5 McBookie 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vikingTON Posted October 22, 2022 Share Posted October 22, 2022 (edited) Betfred was 9/2 Auchinleck and 3/1 Kilwinning earlier this morning. Edited October 22, 2022 by vikingTON 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superbigal Posted October 22, 2022 Share Posted October 22, 2022 1 hour ago, virginton said: Betfred was 9/2 Auchinleck and 3/1 Kilwinning earlier this morning. That Talbot price was suspended all morning so Im assuming an error. Interested if anyone got on. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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