Next permanent Scotland manager

[renton]

19 minutes ago, Paco said:

I agree it looked pretty clear he was the ‘chosen one’, I don’t think Sturgeon ever intended to see out this term despite what she was saying publicly and wanted a “big hitter” in there. But in fairness to Robertson he wasn’t in an elected position at the time and was given candidacy for Edinburgh Central when Ruth Davidson, who held the seat, was still expected to run. I’ve noticed a bit of chatter from the Tories about him being ‘gifted a safe seat’ etc but it couldn’t be further from the truth - we aren’t looking at a carve-up like Johnson potentially switching seats at Westminster, for example.

He’s probably the best of a bad bunch. A bit smarmy for my liking, and there’s definitely some gammon-bait to be had in his role with Salmond being a sex pest. But possibly as good as is out there. 

Forbes doesn’t exude confidence for me in general even before the religious stuff, Yousaf is a clown and even if you think he isn’t rightly or wrongly his brand is already tainted. And beyond that it’s looking like backbench nobodies. Not exactly a deep pool. 

I've seen enough movies go know that doesn't end well.

[Suspect Device]

1 hour ago, Trogdor said:

A lot is made of the young being more likely to support independence. However, as you get older there is a tipping point where people tend to become more conservative (with a small c not tory!) and I wonder if that affects views on independence as well. Does anyone know or can point to any research?

The accepted logic is that the demographic shift over time favours independence. However, I think there will be an opposite shift as people get older. I'm just not sure of the scale.

I've not felt that I'm getting any more conservative. I'm 55 so wondering when it's going to kick in.

[Jacksgranda]

On 16/02/2023 at 09:59, ICTChris said:

Forbes to declare a Free church theocracy. Play parks padlocked on a Sunday all over Scotland.

 

23 hours ago, welshbairn said:

I'd advise her to listen to Jesus.

 

  Quote

And Jesus answering said unto them, Render to Caesar the things that are Caesar's, and to God the things that are God's. And they marvelled at him. Mark 12:17

That'll be them padlocked, then...

[carpetmonster]

19 minutes ago, Trogdor said:

That's interesting, I can't read the full article (paywall) but the graphs on the twitter post are helpful. Perhaps a strategy of waiting the old b*****ds out will work. I feared that they would just be replaced by 'new' old b*****ds but that may not be the case. 

Arwa Mahdawi’s take on it is an interesting one; the position that the younger generations have the same desires as the old, but the policies of the older generation are denying them from getting there

My partner and I have had conversations about having a second kid, but I don’t know how we would afford it. It’s not just nursery to think about: university tuition fees have rocketed, as has the cost of living. A second child has become a luxury item.

I’m certain that childcare costs have radicalised a generation of new parents. If the Republican party in the US and the Tory party in the UK had any desire to woo millennial voters, they would support their chat about family values with family-friendly policies. Instead, they’re doing the opposite.

On Sunday, the Telegraph reported that Rishi Sunak – a man who owns four luxury houses and has never had to worry about the price of daycare – has shelved plans to overhaul England’s childcare system and make it more affordable. Across the Atlantic, abortion-obsessed Republicans are more concerned with forcing people to have children than making it easier to look after them.

https://amp.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2023/jan/03/millennials-radicalism-not-getting-more-rightwing-with-age
 

Tuition fees seems particularly pertinent when it comes to Scotland, even the Scottish Tories are for free education now - https://inews.co.uk/news/scotland/scottish-tories-back-free-university-tuition-679398

(or they were on December 6th 2020, anyway, it’s entirely possible Dross could have changed his position by now, or indeed by December 7th 2020)

Edited February 17, 2023 by carpetmonster

[welshbairn]

I wonder what the average age of SNP members is? Could be hugely important for the result, especially on the GRR issue and for younger candidates like Mairi McAllan. Hopefully they're not as ancient and deranged as the people who thought Liz Truss for PM would be a good idea.

P.S. Inconclusive if this is a true reflection:

Edited February 17, 2023 by welshbairn

[ScotiaNostra]

would younger voters be happy with Robertson as the leader and that really only leaves potentially McAllan or Forbes as an alternative for the younger or wanting a fresh start voters

 

Edited February 17, 2023 by ScotiaNostra

[superbigal]

Distinct rumour mill suggesting Robertson reluctant to stand.  Come on Kate (Just as a punter mind).

[Darren]

51 minutes ago, carpetmonster said:

Arwa Mahdawi’s take on it is an interesting one; the position that the younger generations have the same desires as the old, but the policies of the older generation are denying them from getting there

My partner and I have had conversations about having a second kid, but I don’t know how we would afford it. It’s not just nursery to think about: university tuition fees have rocketed, as has the cost of living. A second child has become a luxury item.

I’m certain that childcare costs have radicalised a generation of new parents. If the Republican party in the US and the Tory party in the UK had any desire to woo millennial voters, they would support their chat about family values with family-friendly policies. Instead, they’re doing the opposite.

On Sunday, the Telegraph reported that Rishi Sunak – a man who owns four luxury houses and has never had to worry about the price of daycare – has shelved plans to overhaul England’s childcare system and make it more affordable. Across the Atlantic, abortion-obsessed Republicans are more concerned with forcing people to have children than making it easier to look after them.

https://amp.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2023/jan/03/millennials-radicalism-not-getting-more-rightwing-with-age
 

Tuition fees seems particularly pertinent when it comes to Scotland, even the Scottish Tories are for free education now - https://inews.co.uk/news/scotland/scottish-tories-back-free-university-tuition-679398

(or they were on December 6th 2020, anyway, it’s entirely possible Dross could have changed his position by now, or indeed by December 7th 2020)

The cost of university tuition fees in 2023 seems like a strange reason to choose not to have a second child.

[O'Kelly Isley III]

1 hour ago, Suspect Device said:

I've not felt that I'm getting any more conservative. I'm 55 so wondering when it's going to kick in.

I'm 67 next month and I'm more radical than when I was 21.  I recommend sultana bran with fresh blueberries each morning.

[carpetmonster]

Just now, Darren said:

The cost of university tuition fees in 2023 seems like a strange reason to choose not to have a second child.

There’s no indication they’ll be doing anything but ratcheting up by 2041. When they brought in 9 grand a year down south, it was figured Oxbridge and UCL would charge that, with ‘lesser’ institutions charging less, however they pretty much all went straight to the 9k because they could. Had a mate who was working for Southampton Uni at the time who when he was reaching out to A Level students trying to entice them to come was being uniformly met with ‘if it’s the same cost to go to UCL or Southampton, then I’ll contact you if I don’t get the grades for UCL mate’ 

[Darren]

3 minutes ago, carpetmonster said:

There’s no indication they’ll be doing anything but ratcheting up by 2041. When they brought in 9 grand a year down south, it was figured Oxbridge and UCL would charge that, with ‘lesser’ institutions charging less, however they pretty much all went straight to the 9k because they could. Had a mate who was working for Southampton Uni at the time who when he was reaching out to A Level students trying to entice them to come was being uniformly met with ‘if it’s the same cost to go to UCL or Southampton, then I’ll contact you if I don’t get the grades for UCL mate’ 

I don't dispute the idea tuition fees will go up/be introduced for people living in Scotland to study in Scotland, just find it odd for that to be a deciding factor in having a kid or not.

There's a pretty good chance they'll not want to go to university anyway. Even if they do, it's not on parents to bear the cost.

[carpetmonster]

1 minute ago, Darren said:

I don't dispute the idea tuition fees will go up/be introduced for people living in Scotland to study in Scotland, just find it odd for that to be a deciding factor in having a kid or not.

There's a pretty good chance they'll not want to go to university anyway. Even if they do, it's not on parents to bear the cost.

Being able to provide for a kid is one of the primary movers in deciding when to have them; it’s why we’re doing it later and later. I guess she factors education into being part of that provision. 

[Darren]

1 minute ago, carpetmonster said:

Being able to provide for a kid is one of the primary movers in deciding when to have them; it’s why we’re doing it later and later. I guess she factors education into being part of that provision. 

I'm well aware of the factors to consider. I've got one and another on the way.

My children will be very well provided for, certainly a lot more than I was. Anything they choose to do after school will be up to them.

[Trogdor]

1 hour ago, Suspect Device said:

I've not felt that I'm getting any more conservative. I'm 55 so wondering when it's going to kick in.

It's an unconscious thing. Give it time and you'll be watching GB News and slavering about immigration. It'll happen by stealth. 

[welshbairn]

35 minutes ago, superbigal said:

Distinct rumour mill suggesting Robertson reluctant to stand.  Come on Kate (Just as a punter mind).

Did you put that bet on before Sturgeon's announcement? Didn't look hard but all I could find was around 2/1 just after.

[Suspect Device]

33 minutes ago, O'Kelly Isley III said:

I'm 67 next month and I'm more radical than when I was 21.  I recommend sultana bran with fresh blueberries each morning.

Too radical a breakfast for me. I'll stick with the bacon roll with bowel cancer to look forward to.

13 minutes ago, Trogdor said:

It's an unconscious thing. Give it time and you'll be watching GB News and slavering about immigration. It'll happen by stealth. 

Hopefully the bowel cancer takes me first.  

[Johnny Martin]

The new leader will be Angus Fibertson.

[superbigal]

2 hours ago, welshbairn said:

Did you put that bet on before Sturgeon's announcement? Didn't look hard but all I could find was around 2/1 just after.

Checked oddschecker about 10 minutes after she was meant to be announcing but was still 15 before she showed up. Stuck a "chunk" on at Hills best odds 11/2 but either I, or the market was restricted to 90 odd quid.

I'm not sure if they were mature markets or new markets.

McBookie were only outfit I suspect with a new market and one that only actually had SNP msps or mps.  They were 2/1 at that time.

 

She is a standout 10/3 on Betfair Sportsbook currently. Max £60

Edited February 17, 2023 by superbigal

[superbigal]

William Hills have 

Ash Denham 14/1

Ash Regan 16/1

FFS

Is this a Gender identity issue ?

Ash Tree 100/1

Fag Ash 150/1

 

https://sports.williamhill.com/betting/en-gb/politics/OB_EV17089518/next-permanent-scottish-first-minister

Edited February 17, 2023 by superbigal

[Trogdor]

2 hours ago, carpetmonster said:

Arwa Mahdawi’s take on it is an interesting one; the position that the younger generations have the same desires as the old, but the policies of the older generation are denying them from getting there

My partner and I have had conversations about having a second kid, but I don’t know how we would afford it. It’s not just nursery to think about: university tuition fees have rocketed, as has the cost of living. A second child has become a luxury item.

I’m certain that childcare costs have radicalised a generation of new parents. If the Republican party in the US and the Tory party in the UK had any desire to woo millennial voters, they would support their chat about family values with family-friendly policies. Instead, they’re doing the opposite.

On Sunday, the Telegraph reported that Rishi Sunak – a man who owns four luxury houses and has never had to worry about the price of daycare – has shelved plans to overhaul England’s childcare system and make it more affordable. Across the Atlantic, abortion-obsessed Republicans are more concerned with forcing people to have children than making it easier to look after them.

https://amp.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2023/jan/03/millennials-radicalism-not-getting-more-rightwing-with-age
 

Tuition fees seems particularly pertinent when it comes to Scotland, even the Scottish Tories are for free education now - https://inews.co.uk/news/scotland/scottish-tories-back-free-university-tuition-679398

(or they were on December 6th 2020, anyway, it’s entirely possible Dross could have changed his position by now, or indeed by December 7th 2020)

That's an interesting view.

Childcare costs are enormous, my two are six and three years old. We both work full time and our parents aren't nearby so there was a time where one of us was effectively working to pay the childcare costs. It's eased up a bit now as when they get to three years old you get 30 free hours per week. It's an expensive proposition though. We both have decent jobs so could bear the cost but I can imagine it is a stark choice between working and having children.

I think it was about the one policy Liz Truss pulled from the tombola which was a good one. Making childcare more affordable thus enabling more parents to return to the workforce.