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7 minutes ago, welshbairn said:

To be honest John Sweeney just explained it minutes ago on Radio Scotland.. :lol:

 

I'm happy with the next election being in 2026 anyway. My daughter is 16 in April that year so that's another vote for an independence party. Probably SNP.

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23 minutes ago, Central Belt Caley said:

Who’s all officially declared to run so far? Just Humza Yousaf? 

Ash Regan strongly rumoured and Cherry ruled out so it seems like the thinly veiled transphobia wing will unite around Regan. 

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13 hours ago, johnnydun said:

Why all the hate for Humza?

I’m unsure what to make of him, but he’s been shunted round various cabinet roles, usually to underperforming departments (of which there are a few) and he never seems to make things better. The most noticeable one was Transport, but he’s also been minister for Justice, Health and Europe. 

Either they think he is brilliant at sorting things out or they don’t like him very much.

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1 hour ago, Suspect Device said:

I'm happy with the next election being in 2026 anyway. My daughter is 16 in April that year so that's another vote for an independence party. Probably SNP.

A lot is made of the young being more likely to support independence. However, as you get older there is a tipping point where people tend to become more conservative (with a small c not tory!) and I wonder if that affects views on independence as well. Does anyone know or can point to any research?

The accepted logic is that the demographic shift over time favours independence. However, I think there will be an opposite shift as people get older. I'm just not sure of the scale.

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4 minutes ago, Trogdor said:

A lot is made of the young being more likely to support independence. However, as you get older there is a tipping point where people tend to become more conservative (with a small c not tory!) and I wonder if that affects views on independence as well. Does anyone know or can point to any research?

The accepted logic is that the demographic shift over time favours independence. However, I think there will be an opposite shift as people get older. I'm just not sure of the scale.

I was thinking the same thing. I saw @SandyCromarty making the point that it’s just the older demographic who are dead against independence, but doing a straw poll on my circle of early 50s people, there’s not a strong pull for Indy there either. There will always be an older generation and they’ll likely as not, not want a lot of upheaval in their remaining years on the planet.

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13 hours ago, johnnydun said:

Why all the hate for Humza?

For me he just isn't credible and has demonstrated poor judgement over and over again.

One example I remember was him tweeting during the Salmond inquiry whilst Justice Secretary.

Given a chunk of that was ostensibly about the division of the political part of the government and the judicial/prosecutural part it was ill advised. He was making political points but he should have stayed above the fray. Especially as the Lord Advocat and the Crown Office were rightly taking an absolute beating and he's crowing about Sturgeon's evidence. On that matter he should really have kept schtum as Justice Secretary.

With such poor judgement he would be a car crash as First Minister (not quite Liz Truss more like a Theresa May).

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The curent older generation have had their views shaped by years of watching four tv channels and reading right wing newspapers. They're also much closer to the empire era and so have a greater degree of ingrained British exceptionalism. 

The current young generation are growing up with a Scottish Parliament, have had a relatively raw deal economically, and have greater exposure to other ideas through new forms of media. Some probably will become more conservative in their old age but I highly doubt this will be to the same extent as the current over 50s.

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23 minutes ago, Donathan said:

Ash Regan strongly rumoured and Cherry ruled out so it seems like the thinly veiled transphobia wing will unite around Regan. 

Can’t lie I’d never even heard of Ash Regan until a couple of days ago. 
 

Forbes religious leanings may harm her case if she was to stand. Otherwise she’d be the front runner I think. 
 

Also if Humza wins it, I reckon the abuse from gammony old men will be worse than what Sturgeon got

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19 minutes ago, Scary Bear said:

I was thinking the same thing. I saw @SandyCromarty making the point that it’s just the older demographic who are dead against independence, but doing a straw poll on my circle of early 50s people, there’s not a strong pull for Indy there either. There will always be an older generation and they’ll likely as not, not want a lot of upheaval in their remaining years on the planet.

Yeah, then again those would have been early to mid 40s around the time of the first referendum, and that demographic wasn't really predominantly for or against. It was basically the cut off point between pro, and anti.

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On 15/02/2023 at 13:53, Central Belt Caley said:

Gordon Strachan as SNP party chairman with Mcghee as First Minister makes the most sense imo

Presumably Strachan would be working as an adviser to the Tories at the same time.

From the moment Angus Robertson got parachuted into Edinburgh Central, it seemed obvious to me he'd be the next SNP leader. Other than Swinney, he's the only SNP MSP with any real political leadership experience.

Forbes' faith might be strong, but I'm not sure she'll fancy having it forensically examined in every column going for the next month. It would also further inflame the GRR issue, which is the last thing the SNP need. It'll be interesting to see how they make that go away.

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Its a pretty shit plan if thats all there is, wait until young people supposedly more pro indy take over. Things can change, future younger generations if indy isnt delivered may think its a waste of time. Unless theres a good plan and some light that it can be achieved, any voters no matter their age can think im bored of this 

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7 minutes ago, ScotiaNostra said:

Its a pretty shit plan if thats all there is, wait until young people supposedly more pro indy take over. Things can change, future younger generations if indy isnt delivered may think its a waste of time. Unless theres a good plan and some light that it can be achieved, any voters no matter their age can think im bored of this 

That's the only way it's going to happen. All the chat about de facto referendums etc. is only useful to maintain interest and keep the impatient on board. 

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7 minutes ago, renton said:

Yeah, then again those would have been early to mid 40s around the time of the first referendum, and that demographic wasn't really predominantly for or against. It was basically the cut off point between pro, and anti.

10 years ago in the run up to the 2014 referendum I was mad keen on independence and hugely disappointed when it didn’t happen. I’m still marginally for independence, but having seen how major political change can go with Brexit, I would need to have faith in the political class of the day that they wouldn’t turn independence into an absolute disaster for Scotland.

Now I’m in my 50s, all I really care about is raising my family, living until retirement age and going nice walks in the occasional Scottish sunshine.

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Just now, Stephen Malkmus said:

That's the only way it's going to happen. All the chat about de facto referendums etc. is only useful to maintain interest and keep the impatient on board. 

then its not anymore likely than it is now, who knows what could happen in 10-15 years.  The Labour Government might make things better, in that time the UK could be back in the EU or even more countries could have left the EU. Complete boredom on the Indy question could set in. Anything could happen that might change how young voters think. 

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3 minutes ago, ScotiaNostra said:

then its not anymore likely than it is now, who knows what could happen in 10-15 years.  The Labour Government might make things better, in that time the UK could be back in the EU or even more countries could have left the EU. Complete boredom on the Indy question could set in. Anything could happen that might change how young voters think. 

Of course anything could happen, but that's the only potential route. If there was an easy route it would have been taken by now, but there isn't when you're 2.5 million people out of 60 million and up against a hostile media and constitutional framework that's totally weighted against you.

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5 minutes ago, Stephen Malkmus said:

Of course anything could happen, but that's the only potential route. If there was an easy route it would have been taken by now, but there isn't when you're 2.5 million people out of 60 million and up against a hostile media and constitutional framework that's totally weighted against you.

you may be right! 

I have a different opinion. I think we are at the point now that a good leader whos able to reach out to the majority of Scotland, speaks to those who are undecided, even no voters. Can lay out a plan and most improtant of all bring some positivity with it. Then It can happen soon, id even say now potentially a better time than in 10,15 years time.

Sturgeon wasnt that leader but theres a chance the next one is, ofcourse everything depends on who gets the job now and what their plan is

Lets see

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42 minutes ago, Darren said:

From the moment Angus Robertson got parachuted into Edinburgh Central, it seemed obvious to me he'd be the next SNP leader. 

I agree it looked pretty clear he was the ‘chosen one’, I don’t think Sturgeon ever intended to see out this term despite what she was saying publicly and wanted a “big hitter” in there. But in fairness to Robertson he wasn’t in an elected position at the time and was given candidacy for Edinburgh Central when Ruth Davidson, who held the seat, was still expected to run. I’ve noticed a bit of chatter from the Tories about him being ‘gifted a safe seat’ etc but it couldn’t be further from the truth - we aren’t looking at a carve-up like Johnson potentially switching seats at Westminster, for example.

He’s probably the best of a bad bunch. A bit smarmy for my liking, and there’s definitely some gammon-bait to be had in his role with Salmond being a sex pest. But possibly as good as is out there. 

Forbes doesn’t exude confidence for me in general even before the religious stuff, Yousaf is a clown and even if you think he isn’t rightly or wrongly his brand is already tainted. And beyond that it’s looking like backbench nobodies. Not exactly a deep pool. 

Edited by Paco
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1 hour ago, Trogdor said:

A lot is made of the young being more likely to support independence. However, as you get older there is a tipping point where people tend to become more conservative (with a small c not tory!) and I wonder if that affects views on independence as well. Does anyone know or can point to any research?

The accepted logic is that the demographic shift over time favours independence. However, I think there will be an opposite shift as people get older. I'm just not sure of the scale.

That doesn’t seem to be panning out for the millennials 

 

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3 minutes ago, carpetmonster said:

That doesn’t seem to be panning out for the millennials 

 

That's interesting, I can't read the full article (paywall) but the graphs on the twitter post are helpful. Perhaps a strategy of waiting the old b*****ds out will work. I feared that they would just be replaced by 'new' old b*****ds but that may not be the case. 

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