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US Presidential Election 2024


scottsdad

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1 hour ago, Miguel Sanchez said:

I can see Donald going out like this in a fit of rage:

image.png.8cce1ed0798b0c7f7d090bc08e5f6e18.png

Surrounded by Big Mac containers, chips strewn all over the place and a jumbo tank of coca cola spilled and seeping into the mattress mixing with a whole host of bodily fluids. Presidential to the end.

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8 minutes ago, HTG said:

Surrounded by Big Mac containers, chips strewn all over the place and a jumbo tank of coca cola spilled and seeping into the mattress mixing with a whole host of bodily fluids. Presidential to the end.

Trump, like similar creatures his size and usually equally dodgy make-up, only drinks Diet Coke. 

 

ETA - THAT's who the fucker reminds me of, he's Sandra from The Fat Slags

sandea.jpg.f1ea7c05debd88fcda13c49395b537f7.jpgimage.png.1a6eb1af6b2161d9c7d760835ff6366b.png

Edited by carpetmonster
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New Iowa polling. Haley polling 20%, but 50% of those supporters say they’ll vote for Biden over Trump in the General if Trump is the nominee. Now Iowa caucusers are the most active of the Republican Party voters in Iowa, which suggests a huge problem for Trump and the Republican Party.

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The Reich-Wing is freaking out about “Steadfast Defender” (rebranded Reforger) and 20,000 UK troops being mobilised (conveniently ignoring the other NATO forces involved).. Once again, it’s part of a larger New World Order plan to take over ‘Merica. This ties in nicely with the Special Forces training in North Carolina that is causing the revival of the Walmart concentration camps and massive underground tunnel theories.

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Something something black helicopters something something FEMA camps, if Alex Jones has anything to say about it. Been ages since I listened to that kind of stuff for light entertainment purposes but would be interesting to hear how they are spinning Donald being revealed as Doe 174.

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Iowa Caucuses tonight.

Predictions ?

Tough to call who will trail in 2nd.

I'll go...

Trump 46%

Shock 2nd for that Vivek weirdo 18%

Haley 16%

Wee Meatball Ron 14%

Various jobbers and cretins 6%

 

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7 hours ago, D Angelo Barksdale said:

Iowa Caucuses tonight.

Predictions ?

Tough to call who will trail in 2nd.

I'll go...

Trump 46%

Shock 2nd for that Vivek weirdo 18%

Haley 16%

Wee Meatball Ron 14%

Various jobbers and cretins 6%

 

News that 68% of Republican crackpots in Iowa think that their cult leader had the election stolen from him in 2020.
So patriotic 😂

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2 hours ago, houston_bud said:

Has his whole campaign been angling to become Trump's running mate?

Perhaps, since poll after poll showed the Republican loyalists weren’t going to vote for a candidate of his skin tone.

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3 hours ago, bigmarv said:

News that 68% of Republican crackpots in Iowa think that their cult leader had the election stolen from him in 2020.
So patriotic 😂

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Some of them were interviewed later on and were babbling about how Trump was "put here by god to become president" and "only Donald Trump has done every single thing he promised as president".

I can only hope that the non-republicans and undecided voters number more than these crackpots for the General Election....................

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3 minutes ago, Leith Green said:

Some of them were interviewed later on and were babbling about how Trump was "put here by god to become president" and "only Donald Trump has done every single thing he promised as president".

I can only hope that the non-republicans and undecided voters number more than these crackpots for the General Election....................

Surely they do. Whilst he won pretty comfortably last night, he got 51.1% of the vote. That suggests that half of Republicans in a very conservative state aren't convinced by him. 

CNN ran a poll at the caucus that asked if Trump is convicted, is he still fit to be President. 63% said yes, whilst that's an absurdly high number it still says that more than a third of Iowa Republicans don't think he's fit to be President (assuming he is convicted). 

This makes me confident that independents and even a chunk of more traditional Republicans won't vote for Trump.

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15 minutes ago, doulikefish said:

Iowa Republicans voted for Ted Cruz last time round and have a habit of voting for the person that doesn't win the nomination 

Fox News - particularly Sean Hannity - were in favor of Cruz pre the 2016 primaries and only jumped ship later when Murdoch saw it was obvious Trump was gonna piss it (see also Blair) 

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1 hour ago, houston_bud said:

Surely they do. Whilst he won pretty comfortably last night, he got 51.1% of the vote. That suggests that half of Republicans in a very conservative state aren't convinced by him. 

CNN ran a poll at the caucus that asked if Trump is convicted, is he still fit to be President. 63% said yes, whilst that's an absurdly high number it still says that more than a third of Iowa Republicans don't think he's fit to be President (assuming he is convicted). 

This makes me confident that independents and even a chunk of more traditional Republicans won't vote for Trump.

How much is a 'chunk'? Trump will easily get >85% of Republican support by virtue of being the only party ticket in a GE, tied with loading the Supreme Court in his first term alone. 

This wishful thinking exercise is all based on a condition that does not exist - an alternative and realistic candidate for Presidency that will actually win supporters for positive reasons. Sleepy Joe's numbers on whether he is fit to be President at the age of 143 by the end of a second term are not much better. His Middle East policy is already splitting progressives and that's before any consequences for the economy kick in, or a major regional war develops. 

When the decision is between two such woefully unpopular and flawed candidates, you should not be surprised at all if a significant number of independents vote simply to turf the incumbent out of office, just as they did to Clinton (continuity Obama) in 2016. 

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2 minutes ago, virginton said:

How much is a 'chunk'? Trump will easily get >85% of Republican support by virtue of being the only party ticket in a GE, tied with loading the Supreme Court in his first term alone. 

This wishful thinking exercise is all based on a condition that does not exist - an alternative and realistic candidate for Presidency that will actually win supporters for positive reasons. Sleepy Joe's numbers on whether he is fit to be President at the age of 143 by the end of a second term are not much better. His Middle East policy is already splitting progressives and that's before any consequences for the economy kick in, or a major regional war develops. 

When the decision is between two such woefully unpopular and flawed candidates, you should not be surprised at all if a significant number of independents vote simply to turf the incumbent out of office, just as they did to Clinton (continuity Obama) in 2016. 

You do yourself a disservice by parroting Trump lines.

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7 hours ago, Inanimate Carbon Rod said:

Its quite scary to think if Trump gets in again just how bad the Supreme Court would be implicated for years if he gets any further picks. 

it's quite scary to think that any one is even thinking about voting for him after all his carry on.  first time round maybe but now ffs?

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Trump to run as republican candidate, lose again and have a another meltdown, even more spectacular than the last one. Now that would be pleasing/ funny as fook. 

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7 hours ago, houston_bud said:

Surely they do. Whilst he won pretty comfortably last night, he got 51.1% of the vote. That suggests that half of Republicans in a very conservative state aren't convinced by him. 

CNN ran a poll at the caucus that asked if Trump is convicted, is he still fit to be President. 63% said yes, whilst that's an absurdly high number it still says that more than a third of Iowa Republicans don't think he's fit to be President (assuming he is convicted). 

This makes me confident that independents and even a chunk of more traditional Republicans won't vote for Trump.

5 hours ago, virginton said:

How much is a 'chunk'? Trump will easily get >85% of Republican support by virtue of being the only party ticket in a GE, tied with loading the Supreme Court in his first term alone. 

This wishful thinking exercise is all based on a condition that does not exist - an alternative and realistic candidate for Presidency that will actually win supporters for positive reasons. Sleepy Joe's numbers on whether he is fit to be President at the age of 143 by the end of a second term are not much better. His Middle East policy is already splitting progressives and that's before any consequences for the economy kick in, or a major regional war develops. 

When the decision is between two such woefully unpopular and flawed candidates, you should not be surprised at all if a significant number of independents vote simply to turf the incumbent out of office, just as they did to Clinton (continuity Obama) in 2016. 

The Iowa Caucuses last night had 110,298 votes cast. In the 2020 Presidential Election, there were 897,672 votes for Trump. So, if you assume that was all Republican voters, that’s roughly the top 12.3% of actual Republican voters…except there was a small number of Democrats who registered Republican for this election (you can flip-flop yearly, it only matters which Primaries you can vote in) to support Haley too. Now, you also have to adjust for Independents in the Presidential vote too, so the best guess there is using the 40/40/20 principle, thus Iowa has around 700,000 or so “true” Republican voters. Now we’re at about a maximum of 16-17% of the total Republican voters last night.

The voters at the Caucuses tend to be the most dedicated or hardline voters, thus the high percentage saying Biden didn’t really win. Trump actually told his supporters to vote even if it threatened their lives, so he pushed hard and still only got 51% of the votes.

Not withstanding absurdist statements by pontificating know-it-alls who blithely blather on while knowing jack shit about the electoral process, yesterday’s results were a definite warning shot for Trump. He really needs to move quickly to shore up his support with Republican moderates, but has rebuffed previous opportunities to do so by doubling down on his conspiracy and witch hunt messaging. At the same time, such movement isn’t without risks to his core support.

Here’s a nice, simple coverage: 

https://www.270towin.com/news/2024/01/16/trump-wins-iowa-caucuses-desantis-takes-second-ramaswamy-drops-out_1581.html

And a good breakdown of the results for Trump vs 2016:

https://centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/big-iowa-win-confirms-trumps-stranglehold-on-gop/

The biggest takeaway from this is an erosion of the Moderate support for Trump and a doubling down by Evangelicals on Trump V2.0…basically Trump is now almost entirely a Christian Nationalist candidate, and Christian Nationalist candidates just landed with a thud in recent elections.

https://www.the-independent.com/news/world/americas/us-politics/trump-evangelical-christians-iowa-caucus-b2479115.html

This reliance upon Evangelicals is risky, as this community can be fickle, and might be quickly turned against Trump in some situations. For his next trick, Trump will likely have to tack Right on things such an abortion, an area where he’s tried to chart a more Centrist course. Failing to do so in an attempt to retain Moderate voters risks his near messianic stature among the Right as Democratic messaging will likely amplify his Centrist comments in an effort to split off some of his Evangelical support. Those who have failed to moderate their position between the Primaries and the General election have often done poorly, as the only thing in the middle of the road is dead animals.

Meanwhile, Mr. Doom and Gloom here is suggesting Independents might vote neither as a protest, while failing to acknowledge that 3-5% of voters in any Presidential election do that anyway, and instead mentioning the 2016 election, where the extra 0.7% of votes to other than the big two candidates made absolutely no difference.

The point of this thread is to discuss the upcoming election, not simply parrot a single candidate’s favourite performative nicknames, or to attack the U.S. as the fulcrum of evil in the world. Perhaps you should start your own thread if you wish to verbally masturbate over your fantasies of a multi-polar world with Putin and Xi running things instead of the corrupt oligarchs of the West, as you so have so lovingly described them.

We all await your onslaught of red dots, clown emojis and have our phrase Bingo Cards waiting.

 

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