Who’s on the plane?

[Alan Twelve]

Just now, Gordon EF said:

Agreed that McLean, Armstrong, Hanley, and Brown are all very likely to make it. I think there's at least some degree of doubt around all of them though. I don't think there would be huge amounts of shock or outcry if any of these guys end up not making the cut. More of a riased eyebrow and slight surprise.

I don't disagree, but I do think Clarke is likely to stay loyal to those who've been loyal to him. Also, who'd drop McLean after Norway? He deserves to be there for the joy he brought to us all.

[Gordon EF]

12 minutes ago, MarkoP said:

Those are more who I’d see as core, dead certs to be going

Although Hanley, MacLean and Kelly are probably pretty close 

Yeah.

You're probably looking at Kelly, Hanley, McLean, Armstrong, Brown, and then one of either Cooper, Souttar, or another attacking player as being the 6 to add to that, as things stand.

Edited October 23, 2023 by Gordon EF

[MarkoP]

2 minutes ago, MarkoP said:

Those are more who I’d see as core, dead certs to be going

Although Hanley, MacLean and Kelly are probably pretty close 

And F**k knows how I missed Armstrong and Brown so aye one place up for grabs, Stewart over Doak for me, boringly predictable, change the manager

[Alan Twelve]

1 minute ago, Gordon EF said:

Yeah.

You're probably looking at Kelly, Hanley, McLean, Armstrong, Brown, one of Cooper or Souttar and then one 'wild cardish' attacking player as being the 6 to add to that, as things stand.

Yeah, that's the only place up for grabs for me, whether it be Doak, or Stewart, or Nisbet, or maybe Fraser Hornby will get fit and light up the Bundesliga with 25 goals before xmas.

Actually, he'll have been saving wee Ryan Gauld for a special occasion. That'll be it.

[MarkoP]

1 minute ago, Alan Twelve said:

Yeah, that's the only place up for grabs for me, whether it be Doak, or Stewart, or Nisbet, or maybe Fraser Hornby will get fit and light up the Bundesliga with 25 goals before xmas.

Actually, he'll have been saving wee Ryan Gauld for a special occasion. That'll be it.

Should we not at least give him till after Christmas?

I think Shankland and maybe Nisbet are already close to surplus to requirement

[Gordon EF]

21 minutes ago, MarkoP said:

Should we not at least give him till after Christmas?

I think Shankland and maybe Nisbet are already close to surplus to requirement

I'd be surprised if either of them made it. It feels like we've abandoned the two up front experiment so 4 centre forwards probably isn't a neccesity.

[Alan Twelve]

5 minutes ago, Gordon EF said:

I'd be surprised if either of them made it. It feels like we've abandoned the two up front experiment so 4 centre forwards probably isn't a neccesity.

@2426255 (I think) made a very good post recently on another thread about the use of our forwards as decoys who're deployed not as goalscorers but rather to make space for the midfielders to get goalscoring opportunities. Accurate and well observed I think, and it's difficult to imagine, in these circumstances, another forward forcing his way into the squad on the strength of his goalscoring - unless someone goes on a batshit crazy run and nets about 40 goals I can't see Clarke changing the tactics. So if anyone other than Adams, Dykes and Brown is to make it they're going to have to show they can hold and distribute the ball, and do the defensive pressing work effectively.

Does anyone fit that bill?

[Donathan]

1 hour ago, Alan Twelve said:

I don't disagree, but I do think Clarke is likely to stay loyal to those who've been loyal to him. Also, who'd drop McLean after Norway? He deserves to be there for the joy he brought to us all.

This really shouldn’t come into the thinking but I can’t see Clarke leaving McLean (who’s always been a favourite of his) at home after he got injured and missed the last euros, especially given he scored the winning penalty against Israel in the semi-final, the penalty that set up David Marshall’s winning save in Belgrade, and then the winner in Oslo as well.

 

McLean is close to a lock for me. 

[2426255]

6 hours ago, Alan Twelve said:

@2426255 (I think) made a very good post recently on another thread about the use of our forwards as decoys who're deployed not as goalscorers but rather to make space for the midfielders to get goalscoring opportunities. Accurate and well observed I think, and it's difficult to imagine, in these circumstances, another forward forcing his way into the squad on the strength of his goalscoring - unless someone goes on a batshit crazy run and nets about 40 goals I can't see Clarke changing the tactics. So if anyone other than Adams, Dykes and Brown is to make it they're going to have to show they can hold and distribute the ball, and do the defensive pressing work effectively.

Does anyone fit that bill?

Brighton and Bloom's idea that as randomness plays a large role in the low scoring game of football, results and goals scored are an imperfect indicator of a teams strength. What matters is the quality of chances created/conceded. This is where all the xG stuff comes from. Its predictive power is the reason it's given importance.

In Scotland's scenario, if chances aren't being created for the strikers, they must be performing another function. As discussed previously, one of a range of tactics we use to create big chances may use our strikers to create space for our attacking midfielders. If you want to replace Dykes or Adams then wouldn't you need someone who can create space for our attacking midfielders rather than goal-scoring? Elliot Anderson would've fit perfectly into that strategy.

I understand that we'll have other tactics and the striker discussion is broader than one tactic, but I don't think it's just as simple as the number of goals our striker score.

[Savage Henry]

11 hours ago, Gordon EF said:

Agreed that McLean, Armstrong, Hanley, and Brown are all very likely to make it. I think there's at least some degree of doubt around all of them though. I don't think there would be huge amounts of shock or outcry if any of these guys end up not making the cut. More of a riased eyebrow and slight surprise.

One of Cooper and Hanley is going to miss out, and that seems harsh to me. I’d like to find a place for Ryan Jack, but I don’t see where it is.  Brown is a shoe in as the third and final centre forward, unless he stops getting game time for his club.   
 

Needless to say, there will be injuries and at least one of the “starting XI” won’t be available. 
 

I’m not really a Ryan Porteous fan, he always looks like a red card waiting to happen, but he’s played himself into the squad at this point.  There’s plenty of time for a couple of others to do likewise.  
 

All being fit, there really only are a handful of positions up for grabs. 

Edited October 24, 2023 by Savage Henry

[Donathan]

I think there’s a chance that Cooper and Hanley both make it, at the expense of John Souttar. Hendry, Porteous and McKenna seem like they’ve already punched their ticket (plus Tierney who is effectively a centre half for us). There will be at least one more of Cooper, Hanley or Souttar but it wouldn’t shock me if there’s room for 2. 
 

I think a fit Hanley is absolutely on the plane and I actually would suggest that Hendry-Hanley-Tierney would still be our first choice back three. I know Ryan Porteous has started every qualifier but it’s worth remembering that Hendry missed the March games through injury and Hanley missed the rest of the campaign. 
 

Scott McKenna gets in as the second choice LCB to Tierney.

 

Cooper and Souttar are both 2+ injuries away from getting on the field and when squad numbers are limited it’s hard to carry guys like that. 

[Alan Twelve]

1 hour ago, Savage Henry said:

I’m not really a Ryan Porteous fan, he always looks like a red card waiting to happen, but he’s played himself into the squad at this point.  There’s plenty of time for a couple of others to do likewise.  

I wasn't a Porteous fan until recently, but he's been really good for Scotland. He's got a bit of swagger about him which is unusual in Scotland international centre-backs.

[Alan Twelve]

1 hour ago, Donathan said:

I think there’s a chance that Cooper and Hanley both make it, at the expense of John Souttar. Hendry, Porteous and McKenna seem like they’ve already punched their ticket (plus Tierney who is effectively a centre half for us). There will be at least one more of Cooper, Hanley or Souttar but it wouldn’t shock me if there’s room for 2. 
 

I think a fit Hanley is absolutely on the plane and I actually would suggest that Hendry-Hanley-Tierney would still be our first choice back three. I know Ryan Porteous has started every qualifier but it’s worth remembering that Hendry missed the March games through injury and Hanley missed the rest of the campaign. 
 

Scott McKenna gets in as the second choice LCB to Tierney.

 

Cooper and Souttar are both 2+ injuries away from getting on the field and when squad numbers are limited it’s hard to carry guys like that. 

I was about to disagree re: Porteous/Hendry, but then I thought: isn't it just great that we actually have good options at the back to disagree over? How sweet is it to not have to be arguing over least-worst options? These are truly great days to be a Scotland fan.

[Donathan]

31 minutes ago, Alan Twelve said:

I was about to disagree re: Porteous/Hendry, but then I thought: isn't it just great that we actually have good options at the back to disagree over? How sweet is it to not have to be arguing over least-worst options? These are truly great days to be a Scotland fan.

I think Hendry, Hanley, Porteous and McKenna are a pretty clear top 4 either way. If fit I’d be shocked if any of them doesn’t make the plane.

 

Cooper and Souttar will depend on numbers. 

[2426255]

56 minutes ago, Alan Twelve said:

These are truly great days to be a Scotland fan.

That's something I was thinking myself yesterday. In 2024 we've got fantastic competitions to look forward to with both Euro-2024 and Nations League A shortly thereafter. The draw for Euro 2024 (2-Dec) and Nations League (8-Feb) is when it will probably be starting to sink in.

We will have at least 13 games (4 friendlies, 3 Euro-24, 6 UNL) then which is a sign of success in itself. 

[Gordon EF]

12 hours ago, Donathan said:

I think Hendry, Hanley, Porteous and McKenna are a pretty clear top 4 either way. If fit I’d be shocked if any of them doesn’t make the plane.

 

Cooper and Souttar will depend on numbers. 

I think that's the way I see it. With 23, you're looking at 3 keepers and then more or less 2 players for each outfield position. Assuming we keep the 5-4-1 / 3-4-3 formation, then I think we'll be taking at least 5 centre backs. Those will most likely be Porteous, Hendry, McKenna, Hanley, plus one other. Tierney obviously covers both the centre back and left wing back position, so I'd imagine that 'extra man' will be used for a third forward, behind Dykes and Adams. Currently, the third forward is likely to be Jacob Brown but I don't think you can rule out Clarke going with a different option, given how little comeptitive football Brown has actually played for us.

[Gordon EF]

13 hours ago, Alan Twelve said:

I wasn't a Porteous fan until recently, but he's been really good for Scotland. He's got a bit of swagger about him which is unusual in Scotland international centre-backs.

I think Porteous has been excellent through the qualifiers. He's not a player I've seen a great deal of outside scotland games but it's probably fair to say he's been one of the more surpirsing performers for th epast wee while. No idea if he's just screwed the nut, really taken a step up in his game, or Clarke's just managing to get the best out of him. But I think he's played his way into being a stick on to go to Germany and most likely a starter, even when everyone else is fit.

[Guest]

Craig Gordon is the only person not in recent squads who I'd be including. Can still do a job if required and a great presence to have in the dressing room. To agree with others if it's 26 you're looking at taking Doak

[2426255]

I thought I'd have a look at the squad by squad numbers (1-23) to see if that offers some insight into where the certainties and where there is room for newcomers is and to be honest I think the squad for the Euros will be pretty much as we have seen it in the lead up. Injuries will play a part, but it's going to be incredibly difficult for anyone to force their way in that hasn't already been part of the set up.

I think #5, #16 and #18 are the places we might see some uncertainty and it'll also be interesting to see what happens if Craig Gordon gets recalled, but I don't see a huge opportunity for newcomers to force their way in. I think Taylor, McCrorie, Shankland, Ralston and Hyam in particular are gap fillers and will have a hard time getting into the 23-man Euro's squad.

 

[Skyline Drifter]

1 hour ago, 2426255 said:

I thought I'd have a look at the squad by squad numbers (1-23) to see if that offers some insight into where the certainties and where there is room for newcomers is and to be honest I think the squad for the Euros will be pretty much as we have seen it in the lead up. Injuries will play a part, but it's going to be incredibly difficult for anyone to force their way in that hasn't already been part of the set up.

I think #5, #16 and #18 are the places we might see some uncertainty and it'll also be interesting to see what happens if Craig Gordon gets recalled, but I don't see a huge opportunity for newcomers to force their way in. I think Taylor, McCrorie, Shankland, Ralston and Hyam in particular are gap fillers and will have a hard time getting into the 23-man Euro's squad.

 

Hearts will effectively decide who the goalkeepers are. That and whether Craig Gordon actually wants to go (but I've seen no suggestion that he doesn't). We're not taking two Hearts keepers to Germany. If Craig Gordon comes back in the next month or two, wins his first team spot back and Clark returns to the bench then Gordon will be in the squad if he wants to be and Kelly will be the 3rd keeper (unless Clark goes out on loan in January to play games). If Clark retains his Hearts spot it finishes Craig Gordon internationally and Clark and Kelly will go as backup to Gunn assuming none are injured. McCrorie will get the shout if either of the non Hearts keepers do get injured.

If Grant Hanley proves his fitness and plays every week for Norwich he'll be included. I still think he's Clarke's 1st choice centre back. He's not once left him out when fit.

If we're accepting Porteous is a given now then McKenna, Cooper and Souttar are competing for one spot. McKenna's in pole position but so far out of the picture at Forest that he may drop behind the other two. He's not even making the bench for Forest at the moment.

Which all leaves one spot for a 3rd striker to be argued over by Brown, Nisbet and Shankland. He could take two by leaving one of Jack or McLean out but I don't expect it. We rarely play with two out and out strikers, even less likely to do so in a Finals match, and he's not taking four when Christie, Armstrong and even McGinn or McTominay can play supporting striker roles too.

Of course it's likely at least a couple of them will take decisions out of his hands by getting injured and missing the finals.

EDITED to add if there was any truth in the notion of Harvey Barnes wanting to declare for us then he's a possible shout although it probably means leaving out Armstrong. Same for Elliot Anderson I suppose but I can't see him being considered after the Cyprus squad debacle.

Edited November 16, 2023 by Skyline Drifter