Cardle is Magic Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 4 hours ago, ptfc. 22 said: Each teams season out of 10 so far based on overall expectations of fans; Raith 10 Dundee United 8 Thistle 7 Airdrie 9 Dunfermline 6 Morton 6 Ayr 5 Inverness 4 Arbroath 5 Queens Park 2 I’d have us at a 4 or 5 tbh. Can’t lose three derbies, collect 23 points from 18 games and say we’re doing better than average. Considering they have only lost one game and have conceded just SEVEN goals, it’s remarkable that United are not top of the table. Of course, they win their game in hand and they would be 1st but still only on goal difference. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ecto Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 4 hours ago, Cardle is Magic said: I’d have us at a 4 or 5 tbh. Can’t lose three derbies, collect 23 points from 18 games and say we’re doing better than average. Considering they have only lost one game and have conceded just SEVEN goals, it’s remarkable that United are not top of the table. Of course, they win their game in hand and they would be 1st but still only on goal difference. Where did you expect to be? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tattie36 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 (edited) 5 hours ago, Cardle is Magic said: I’d have us at a 4 or 5 tbh. Can’t lose three derbies, collect 23 points from 18 games and say we’re doing better than average. Considering they have only lost one game and have conceded just SEVEN goals, it’s remarkable that United are not top of the table. Of course, they win their game in hand and they would be 1st but still only on goal difference. Understand that historically Arbroath and Dunfermline have completely different expectations but surely the no1 priority after promotion is to safely consolidate in the first season back at the higher level? The Pars are currently comfortably mid table. Do exactly the same for the second half of the season and they’ll likely end up around 6th/7th place. Do marginally better and there’s a possibility of a promotion playoff, slightly worse and it’ll be 7th/8th at worst. It would need a pretty big collapse and collective improvement from the teams below for Dunfermline to be at serious threat of relegation. Surely this time last season all Dunfermline fans would have bitten your hand off to be where they are now? I feel that Raith doing so well has coloured Dunfermline fans’ views on the season so far. Edited January 5 by Tattie36 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dunning1874 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 11 hours ago, Chippyminton said: I can't ever remember reading through a P&B thread where so many supporters, from so many clubs, have agreed on virtually everything. There's some real knowledge of the game out there, and fair play to everyone who's contributed. I'm saying nothing because I also agree with everyone else Allow me to ruin this by throwing some disagreement in there re Partick. Undoubtedly Doolan is still doing a very good job regardless, but is the reduced budget not being overstated a bit? It's going to be extremely difficult for any team to replace Turner, Tiffoney, Docherty and Holt all leaving in one summer regardless of how much money is there to do it so to be sitting on the same points total as last season after the same number of games and comfortably heading for third place is clearly very good, but the budget can't have reduced by that much if you've been able to bring in players from higher levels like McInroy, Adeloye, Robinson & Alston while giving a new contract to Milne, and even Neilson can't be that cheap as loanees go. You had a TJF director openly saying the budget had a shortfall at the start of the season and further investment was needed (which has obviously now happened) so if it wasn't going to break even on average crowds over 3500 it's still got to be an extremely healthy Championship budget. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oneteaminglasgow Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 (edited) 23 minutes ago, Dunning1874 said: Allow me to ruin this by throwing some disagreement in there re Partick. Undoubtedly Doolan is still doing a very good job regardless, but is the reduced budget not being overstated a bit? It's going to be extremely difficult for any team to replace Turner, Tiffoney, Docherty and Holt all leaving in one summer regardless of how much money is there to do it so to be sitting on the same points total as last season after the same number of games and comfortably heading for third place is clearly very good, but the budget can't have reduced by that much if you've been able to bring in players from higher levels like McInroy, Adeloye, Robinson & Alston while giving a new contract to Milne, and even Neilson can't be that cheap as loanees go. You had a TJF director openly saying the budget had a shortfall at the start of the season and further investment was needed (which has obviously now happened) so if it wasn't going to break even on average crowds over 3500 it's still got to be an extremely healthy Championship budget. Last season, we budgeted to finish second (which obviously never happened). We also had Jacqui Low in charge for most of it, and the time she was ousted previously, David Beattie had to make massive cuts elsewhere (like cancelling team buses to away games) because she had made such an arse of it. I’d guess that Covid is still playing a part in it as well where we received a lower grant than everyone else in the division by virtue of the fact that we were in League One at the time. This season, we’ve got the Jags Foundation contributing 10k a month, alongside a one-off 50k donation made in June. We had the stadium naming rights sold, plus a 500k investment from elsewhere. Most of that was known about when budgets were still being set, so I imagine without those ours would be genuinely significantly reduced, and the players you’re talking about wouldn’t be playing for us. If I had to guess, I’d say that our budget has been reduced from last season, but that it’s still one of the larger ones in the division. I’d guess at Dundee United (obviously) and Raith being bigger, but that ours is possibly next after that. Edited January 5 by oneteaminglasgow 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chippyminton Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 @Dunning1874 Fair point. And FWIW - I’ve a lot of time for Kris Doolan. He took over when the club was on its arse, and the subsequent upwards trajectory has spoken for itself. Let’s also not forget the back story of his tragic family circumstances early on in his tenure. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AuldReekie Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 1 hour ago, Tattie36 said: Understand that historically Arbroath and Dunfermline have completely different expectations but surely the no1 priority after promotion is to safely consolidate in the first season back at the higher level? The Pars are currently comfortably mid table. Do exactly the same for the second half of the season and they’ll likely end up around 6th/7th place. Do marginally better and there’s a possibility of a promotion playoff, slightly worse and it’ll be 7th/8th at worst. It would need a pretty big collapse and collective improvement from the teams below for Dunfermline to be at serious threat of relegation. Surely this time last season all Dunfermline fans would have bitten your hand off to be where they are now? I feel that Raith doing so well has coloured Dunfermline fans’ views on the season so far. I think the league position is probably meeting expectations - I certainly would have taken where we are at this stage if you offered me it at the start of the season. I think the general grumbling is more reflective of actual performances and frustration at not being able to field a settled first team. And while I'm pretty happy with the league position, I do still think it could go either way - 6 points from relegation play-off spot isn't very comforting. Ayr, Inverness and Arbroath all have potential for a better second half of a season, 2 of which held us to draws recently. Given the squad issues and some performances, I don't think it's that big a collapse to get dragged into a dog fight. The next 6 weeks will be season defining. QP (A), Airdrie (H), QP (H), Dundee United (A), Morton (H), Arbroath (H). We really should be strong enough to pull in 9 points from this lot and that takes us to 32 points. In the last five seasons, that would almost certainly see you safe and we'd be talking achieving that by mid-February. This would then give club a platform to take more time addressing injuries and if find some form, be more aggressive in chasing 4th place. All in all, I think you are right - cold analysis suggests we should be fine and I think everyone will be pretty happy. I think we're all just battle weary and frustrated at how some of the injury stuff has played out. No issues with Rovers. Obviously don't like getting spanked 5 times off them, but I think they've been a great success story this year. I think it's great seeing examples of what can happen when a club is well run and appoint a good management team - those guys we're in the pits of despair during the Goodwillie fiasco and it's incredible how quickly they've turned that round. We need more of this around Scotland. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stuntiethumper Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 (edited) 22 hours ago, an86 said: An unmitigated disaster, driven by people who are all “project” and no football, forgetting that the latter is the most important part in terms of delivering on the former. With our resources, we should be having a solid season, maybe not troubling the top four, but certainly not being at risk of going down. Big over performance on the park last season, the opposite this season. A complete clusterfuck off it and everyone involved in the decision making should be embarrassed. Well said. I can live with getting beat but the absolute absence of clear communication on next steps and some vsible leadership from the Committee and CEO is criminal. Should hang their heads in shame. Edited January 5 by Stuntiethumper 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoBNob Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 2 hours ago, Tattie36 said: Understand that historically Arbroath and Dunfermline have completely different expectations but surely the no1 priority after promotion is to safely consolidate in the first season back at the higher level? The Pars are currently comfortably mid table. Do exactly the same for the second half of the season and they’ll likely end up around 6th/7th place. Do marginally better and there’s a possibility of a promotion playoff, slightly worse and it’ll be 7th/8th at worst. It would need a pretty big collapse and collective improvement from the teams below for Dunfermline to be at serious threat of relegation. Surely this time last season all Dunfermline fans would have bitten your hand off to be where they are now? I feel that Raith doing so well has coloured Dunfermline fans’ views on the season so far. Load of absolute pish tbh. Since the playoffs were introduced (I couldn't be arse checking further) the league one champions have finished 5th or higher every season bar one. The exception being last year with Cove, however Queens Park kept that league 1 tradition going of finishing in the top five. Being the second worst league one champions over the past decade and finishing 6th/7th or 8th wouldn't be a success. Especially when you consider a good few of those teams would've had a fraction of the resources available. The way you're talking makes it sound like we were in League one for years and just scraped up, rather than dropping down for a season and pissing the league. With how cylindrical football tends to be at this level I've never been convinced by this consolidation pish either tbh. With how long contracts are, and the money going around you'll get 1/2 years max of a player doing well at this level before they're plucked off by a premiership side/go down south. It's pretty difficult to build up a squad over a period years, you really need to hit while the irons hot so to say. And with us, and looking at our contracts our best chance with this squad will be next year, if our investors are serious about selling players then next summer (Providing we've had a good season but haven't been promoted) will be the optimal time to sell our assets, leaving us with another rebuild. With that in mind it'd be pretty helpful to finish 4th this year with all the financial benefits that brings 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
renton Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 8 minutes ago, HoBNob said: Load of absolute pish tbh. Since the playoffs were introduced (I couldn't be arse checking further) the league one champions have finished 5th or higher every season bar one. The exception being last year with Cove, however Queens Park kept that league 1 tradition going of finishing in the top five. Being the second worst league one champions over the past decade and finishing 6th/7th or 8th wouldn't be a success. Especially when you consider a good few of those teams would've had a fraction of the resources available. The way you're talking makes it sound like we were in League one for years and just scraped up, rather than dropping down for a season and pissing the league. With how cylindrical football tends to be at this level I've never been convinced by this consolidation pish either tbh. With how long contracts are, and the money going around you'll get 1/2 years max of a player doing well at this level before they're plucked off by a premiership side/go down south. It's pretty difficult to build up a squad over a period years, you really need to hit while the irons hot so to say. And with us, and looking at our contracts our best chance with this squad will be next year, if our investors are serious about selling players then next summer (Providing we've had a good season but haven't been promoted) will be the optimal time to sell our assets, leaving us with another rebuild. With that in mind it'd be pretty helpful to finish 4th this year with all the financial benefits that brings Think I've spotted Dunfermline's issue. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
madton Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 59 minutes ago, AuldReekie said: No issues with Rovers. Obviously don't like getting spanked 5 times off them, but I think they've been a great success story this year. I think it's great seeing examples of what can happen when a club is well run and appoint a good management team - those guys we're in the pits of despair during the Goodwillie fiasco and it's incredible how quickly they've turned that round. We need more of this around Scotland. Is it that incredible when Murray has basically had a blank cheque this season? Signing guys like Hamilton, Mullin Dabrowski, Watson, Murray, Byrne mostly on very good, long term contracts will have cost a small fortune for the new owners as well as all the infrastructure improvements etc Good luck to them, I'd have loved someone to come in and do the same at Morton but it's not exactly fairytale stuff here. Their budget from last season when they finished 7th to this year will be night and day. No doubt they are performing well but it's hardly a shock to see them up there, think most of us expected it. Dont mind the Rovers so hopefully they maintain it and pip United to the title. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jagfox Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 Here's the average attendances so far this season. Not a direct link to budgets as QP would probably be higher up due to external backing. Last year's 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cb_diamond Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 An interesting point raised above by @AuldReekie about points needed for safety in the division. I suspect with how ridiculously close the margins are from 4th to 10th the markers of past seasons may be not the case this season and you'll need closer to 40 points to be safe, rather than low 30s. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AuldReekie Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 4 minutes ago, cb_diamond said: An interesting point raised above by @AuldReekie about points needed for safety in the division. I suspect with how ridiculously close the margins are from 4th to 10th the markers of past seasons may be not the case this season and you'll need closer to 40 points to be safe, rather than low 30s. I think you are probably right. At half way stage, Arbroath are on 17 points, QP on 14 points. If you assume a similar return in second half, you'd be looking at 34 and 28 points respectively for play-off and relegation. Above them, Caley Jags and Ayr on 18/19 respectively (with Caley Jags having played an extra game). I think Arbroath will see an improved return so you are probably talking nearer 40 points for guaranteed safety. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jagfox Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 26 minutes ago, cb_diamond said: An interesting point raised above by @AuldReekie about points needed for safety in the division. I suspect with how ridiculously close the margins are from 4th to 10th the markers of past seasons may be not the case this season and you'll need closer to 40 points to be safe, rather than low 30s. Probably be a high winning total too as top 2 beating everyone below them most of the time. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thumper Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 13 hours ago, ptfc. 22 said: Each teams season out of 10 so far based on overall expectations of fans; Ayr 5 I don't think this works. Expectations are basically divided between people who knew what would happen when Akinyemi left, and people who didn't. The former expected an immediate return to a relegation battle, and while they haven't been disappointed this isn't really a pass mark. The latter are obviously deeply worried. I expect Dundee United to win it simply because consistently getting expected results is more stable than consistently getting last-minute winners, unless you're the Old Firm and being handed them by the officials. The bottom five could be in any order by the end of the road. Arbroath and QP look pretty rudderless but it's yet to be established whether that is better or worse than having a bald man point you directly at an iceberg. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cb_diamond Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 12 minutes ago, jagfox said: Probably be a high winning total too as top 2 beating everyone below them most of the time. Yeah, agreed. As one of the RR posters mentioned they are in danger of doing a Liverpool this season and being runners up with a total that would win the league every other year. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sarto Mutiny Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 1 hour ago, jagfox said: Here's the average attendances so far this season. Not a direct link to budgets as QP would probably be higher up due to external backing. Last year's The Tangerine Pound in full effect there 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tattie36 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 15 minutes ago, Thumper said: …. Arbroath and QP look pretty rudderless but it's yet to be established whether that is better or worse than having a bald man point you directly at an iceberg. Doesn’t feel like it to me and, I think, most of our fans. The difference in performances, collectively and individually, in the last few weeks is night and day compared to most of last season and this. The fact that we’ve picked up points and been competitive in all games since McIntyre came in is pretty decent considering the fact that our small, imbalanced squad has been decimated by injuries. A few new bodies in (2 already) and a return from injury for a few other key players and I can definitely see us having a better second half to the season. Whether it’s enough to keep us up remains to be seen but there’s definitely a more positive feel about the place at the moment. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ExiledLichtie Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 1 hour ago, jagfox said: Here's the average attendances so far this season. Not a direct link to budgets as QP would probably be higher up due to external backing. Last year's It cannot be overstated just how good being in the championship has been for our attendances. For most of my life, Arbroath's attendances hovered in the 600-800 range. Now we sit as a mid level championship team. Yes, we are helped greatly by bigger away crowds, and having the Dundee teams in our league the last two seasons has been excellent, but we have also considerably grown our home support. We have also better engaged with the community, sell way more merch, and grown our "big game" potential of casual fans. Long term, we are in a good place. I think we're helped by having a board that didn't build themselves an evil directors box in the stadium. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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