Vote of No Confidence

[Leith Green]

9 minutes ago, alta-pete said:

Ash Regan on the radio sounding very much like an abstentionist. Unless maybe her boss tells her to do otherwise...

Alex Salmond knows that he can extract a price.

If Regan abstains, Alba go back to being irrelevant (their natural state).

[Jedi2]

She will vote with the govt, so 64-64 it is and a win on penalties for Yousaf.(who will no doubt declare it a clear endorsement of his position)

[ICTChris]

Did one of the Tory MSPs not join Reform?  Surely they could bribe her to vote with them, GB News to be exempted from license fee in independent Scotland, make Neil Oliver head of some quango about tinfoil hats.

The sole Reform UK MSP lost her seat in 2021.  Rest well, sweet princess.

Edited April 25 by ICTChris

[sparky88]

I suspect the Greens wouldn't be voting against Yousaf if they knew he would lose. 

[ICTChris]

1 minute ago, sparky88 said:

I suspect the Greens wouldn't be voting against Yousaf if they knew he would lose. 

They seem to have gone full "AND NOW WE MOVE ON TO LIARS".

[Raab]

Even if he wins the vote does anyone even want him as leader?

I have zero confidence anything gets better with him at the helm and tbh the SNP have probably lost my vote.

He hasn't been lucky, but plenty of that is self inflicted.

Edited April 25 by Raab

[AyrExile]

Will the hive still be following orders next week? A good chance for Ewing to get his own back for the greater good. Will Matheson still have the powers to vote and can Sturgeon be relied upon to turn up at her work these days?

With the rate of change today it also gets more likely by the hour he realises his tea is oot and throws the towel in before any vote 

Edited April 25 by AyrExile

[ICTChris]

18 minutes ago, AyrExile said:

Will the hive still be following orders next week? A good chance for Ewing to get his own back for the greater good. Will Matheson still have the powers to vote and can Sturgeon be relied upon to turn up at her work these days?

With the rate of change today it also gets more likely by the hour he realises his tea is oot and throws the towel in before any vote 

I was thinking that - everyone assumes that all SNP MSPs will vote one way but will they?  Matheson's punishement is due to be decided next week - I have no idea if he could be suspended from Parliament for a period of time.  That could tip the balance.

I think you might be right, Yousaf might resign.

[DeeTillEhDeh]

43 minutes ago, ICTChris said:

I was thinking that - everyone assumes that all SNP MSPs will vote one way but will they?  Matheson's punishement is due to be decided next week - I have no idea if he could be suspended from Parliament for a period of time.  That could tip the balance.

I think you might be right, Yousaf might resign.

Hopefully.

[Dunning1874]

1 hour ago, ICTChris said:

I was thinking that - everyone assumes that all SNP MSPs will vote one way but will they?  Matheson's punishement is due to be decided next week - I have no idea if he could be suspended from Parliament for a period of time.  That could tip the balance.

I think you might be right, Yousaf might resign.

Needing favours from Alba really makes him a lame duck even if he survives the vote.

Abandoning a deal he'd been defending 48 hours earlier in order to avoid the risk the other party would be the ones to ditch it, so ostensibly making him look strong and decisive rather than weakly allowing his majority to disappear without being in control of the situation, but clearly being reactive rather than doing it because he believes it's the right thing to do.

So he gets rid of the smaller party who a sizeable enough number of his backbenchers to be a problem view as an extreme tail wagging the dog to allow himself a reset, only to then find himself completely dependent on giving favours to one MSP to avoid a vote of no confidence. Said MSP defected from his party after he won the leadership, a defection he described as "no great loss", and went to a party who have literally never won a seat in any level of election in Scotland. He's tried to play 4D chess and landed himself in an even worse situation.

[Raab]

I just can't see any way where he is still First Minister in a month's time. I wouldn't even bet on him being First Minister on Monday.

As said a few posts ago, I have absolutely zero faith in the man. He was an entirely underwhelming appointment, and he has exceeded expectation in how bad I'd feared he'd be.

What a mess we're in.

Edited April 25 by Raab

[Binos]

The vote will not carry 

[vikingTON]

35 minutes ago, Dunning1874 said:

Needing favours from Alba really makes him a lame duck even if he survives the vote.

Abandoning a deal he'd been defending 48 hours earlier in order to avoid the risk the other party would be the ones to ditch it, so ostensibly making him look strong and decisive rather than weakly allowing his majority to disappear without being in control of the situation, but clearly being reactive rather than doing it because he believes it's the right thing to do.

So he gets rid of the smaller party who a sizeable enough number of his backbenchers to be a problem view as an extreme tail wagging the dog to allow himself a reset, only to then find himself completely dependent on giving favours to one MSP to avoid a vote of no confidence. Said MSP defected from his party after he won the leadership, a defection he described as "no great loss", and went to a party who have literally never won a seat in any level of election in Scotland. He's tried to play 4D chess and landed himself in an even worse situation.

Nice try at repackaging your party statement from earlier in the day, but requiring one vote to survive a single confidence vote is really not a worse position to be in than having Lorna fucking Slater stinking out your Cabinet all the way until the next election because of Nicola's dodgy deal. Or having an EGM of a handful of fruit-loops decide whether your government retains its majority or not. 

Yousaf was mistaken to stand up for the BHA earlier in the week but gunging the Greens first was a competent response to events, which suggests that an adult was also present in the room last night. 

Edited April 25 by vikingTON

[Jedi2]

Best outcome is 64:64...he gets to stay on, claiming a 'moral' victory or some such, as he no doubt will, and puts Reagan into the Cabinet in exchange for support.

He then gets to the GE, and meanwhile at Holyrood limps along trying to scrabble together issue by issue votes.

[Dunning1874]

12 minutes ago, virginton said:

Nice try at repackaging your party statement from earlier in the day, but requiring one vote to survive a single confidence vote is really not a worse position to be in than having Lorna fucking Slater stinking out your Cabinet all the way until the next election because of Nicola's dodgy deal. Or having an EGM of a handful of fruit-loops decide whether your government retains its majority or not. 

Yousaf was mistaken to stand up for the BHA earlier in the week but gunging the Greens first was a competent response to events, which suggests that an adult was also present in the room last night. 

Not my party, I left it about 7 or 8 years ago.

[git-intae-thum]

13 minutes ago, virginton said:

Nice try at repackaging your party statement from earlier in the day, but requiring one vote to survive a single confidence vote is really not a worse position to be in than having Lorna fucking Slater stinking out your Cabinet all the way until the next election because of Nicola's dodgy deal. Or having an EGM of a handful of fruit-loops decide whether your government retains its majority or not. 

Yousaf was mistaken to stand up for the BHA earlier in the week but gunging the Greens first was a competent response to events, which suggests that an adult was also present in the room last night. 

[git-intae-thum]

This is Alba's chance....and therefore Salmonds way back.

[Jaggy McJagface]

4 hours ago, coprolite said:

Disappointing lack of a “don’t know” option in the poll

John Hughes.

[Jim McLean's Ghost]

2 hours ago, Jedi2 said:

Best outcome is 64:64...he gets to stay on, claiming a 'moral' victory or some such, as he no doubt will, and puts Reagan into the Cabinet in exchange for support.

He then gets to the GE, and meanwhile at Holyrood limps along trying to scrabble together issue by issue votes.

The Tories have already shat it on a no confidence vote in the govt. It is now a personal vote on Humza.

Parties don't like leaders of opposite parties shocker. Maybe there be a string of votes in the confidence of Ross, Sarwar, Harvie and Rennie and see what the numbers are like.

It would be a complete farce if the smaller parties could topple the leader of the scottish parliament on their whim since the system was designed to represent the diverse views of scotland and therefore unlikely there would be a majority.

[lichtgilphead]

Currently watching Sky's Press Preview demonstrate their total ignorance of Scottish politics

Apparently, Humza replaced Nicola less than a year ago, so he will have the shortest tenure of any First Minister if he loses the VONC.

In addition, schools and public services in Scotland are doing "very poorly indeed" in comparison with England.

Finally, Nicola has just been in the news with "a scandal of her own", so Labour will be rubbing their hands.

Totally fact-free nonsense!

In reality, to date, Humza has already been in post since 29th March 2023. Henry Macleish only lasted 1 year 12 days.

Our public services & schools (whilst not being brilliant) are at least equivalent to England, and in many cases are better.

As far as I'm aware, even after all the recent Yoon speculation, only one male ex-member of the SNP has been charged with embezellment from the party. It's not Nicola, and nothing has as yet been proved.

So much for quality journalism!