Euro 2024 Expectations

[kennie makevin]

On 29/04/2024 at 16:46, BFTD said:

Alright, let's not panic too much about Ze Germans yet. They've had two good friendly results, but let's look at the broader picture here. Maybe they'll be contenders by June, or maybe they're going to make a c**t of this tournament too - the latter still seems more likely. Claiming they're going to batter everyone in the group is a huge overreaction.

They're not going to 'batter everyone in the group ' , just Scotland. 

[Big Fifer]

In 2016 3 points was enough with a net 0 goal difference, in 2020 -1 goal difference was enough. That is to say, we can in theory qualify with 3 points but it would rely on us not getting a dousing off Germany on the opening night I'd imagine. 

[Jives Miguel]

I think we will lose every game pretty comfortably tbh.

 

The last 6 or 7 games nosedive in form and results, and the injury concerns have completely killed any hope in me. Just hoping we don't embarrass ourselves at this point.

[effeffsee_the2nd]

I'm not too fussed about the march friendlies as no c**t is risking injury at that stage in the season for a friendly.  I am a bit concerned about the strength of the squad with our injury problems, our quality drops off pretty quickly outwith the first choice 11.  Our strongest team is good enough to win all 3 group games if.  We are also poor enough to loose all 3 if we don't turn up

[2426255]

There's a lot pessimism at the moment. I don't share it personally.

• I thought we saw the best and maybe worst of Scotland in March.
• On the injury front Lewis Ferguson is the only player definitely ruled out. Nathan Patterson probably also and no-one knows for certain with the rest.
• I don't think results have matched performance over the 'winless run'.

I also think regardless of our 'form' and with all the preferred players available we'd be doing well to qualify from the group.

[Skyline Drifter]

21 hours ago, 2426255 said:

There's a lot pessimism at the moment. I don't share it personally.

• I thought we saw the best and maybe worst of Scotland in March.
• On the injury front Lewis Ferguson is the only player definitely ruled out. Nathan Patterson probably also and no-one knows for certain with the rest.
• I don't think results have matched performance over the 'winless run'.

I also think regardless of our 'form' and with all the preferred players available we'd be doing well to qualify from the group.

The only genuinely bad performance was the Northern Irish one (I accept that's also the last one).

Georgia away wasn't great certainly and neither was Norway at home but they were shadow sides and both had some positive spells. Don't think the games against England and France matter a jot and we were encouraging for long spells against Spain and Netherlands even in defeats.

[JS_FFC]

The recent tournaments seem to suggest that 4 points is enough to basically guarantee passage (with a very decent chance of finishing 2nd, but should at least be enough to be one of the best 3rd places). 

 

3 points is a chance but you likely need at least a 0 goal difference so either three draws or a healthy win and two narrow defeats. Nicking a 1-0 and losing the other two likely won’t cut it. 
 

I think the strategy has to be:

 

1. Shut up the shop against Germany and hope to shitfest a 0-0. One goal defeat wouldn’t be a disaster.

 

2. Keep it tight against Switzerland. Play for a point but be a bit more adventurous to try and nick a 1-0 on the break or from a set piece. 
 

3. Go all out to beat Hungary and hope to get to 4 points.

 

[Jaggy McJagface]

44 minutes ago, JS_FFC said:

The recent tournaments seem to suggest that 4 points is enough to basically guarantee passage (with a very decent chance of finishing 2nd, but should at least be enough to be one of the best 3rd places). 

 

3 points is a chance but you likely need at least a 0 goal difference so either three draws or a healthy win and two narrow defeats. Nicking a 1-0 and losing the other two likely won’t cut it. 
 

I think the strategy has to be:

 

1. Shut up the shop against Germany and hope to shitfest a 0-0. One goal defeat wouldn’t be a disaster.

 

2. Keep it tight against Switzerland. Play for a point but be a bit more adventurous to try and nick a 1-0 on the break or from a set piece. 
 

3. Go all out to beat Hungary and hope to get to 4 points.

 

If we manage to scrape a point in the opener then we effectively have two bites at the cherry to secure progression.

We should be aiming to win against Switzerland and, failing that, Hungary.

[BFTD]

1 hour ago, Skyline Drifter said:

The only genuinely bad performance was the Northern Irish one (I accept that's also the last one).

Georgia away wasn't great certainly and neither was Norway at home but they were shadow sides and both had some positive spells. Don't think the games against England and France matter a jot and we were encouraging for long spells against Spain and Netherlands even in defeats.

It's a bit worrying how quickly some folk have switched to believing that we'd be as well just staying home. You get the impression they're absolutely dreading June coming around.

I've had almost forty years of Scotland doing worse than expected, but if I got to the point that I considered humiliating defeat was a foregone conclusion, I'd stop watching for the sake of my own mental health.

[2426255]

1 hour ago, BFTD said:

It's a bit worrying how quickly some folk have switched to believing that we'd be as well just staying home. You get the impression they're absolutely dreading June coming around.

That's the nature of fans isn't it? No middle ground. 

[Monkey Tennis]

6 hours ago, Jaggy McJagface said:

If we manage to scrape a point in the opener then we effectively have two bites at the cherry to secure progression.

We should be aiming to win against Switzerland and, failing that, Hungary.

If we get beaten 9-0 in the opening game, we'll still have two bites at the cherry.  

2 subsequent wins would certainly get us through while a win and a draw in either order would almost certainly get us through.

[BFTD]

42 minutes ago, Monkey Tennis said:

If we get beaten 9-0 in the opening game, we'll still have two bites at the cherry.  

2 subsequent wins would certainly get us through while a win and a draw in either order would almost certainly get us through.

An awful Costa Rica being ridden 7-0 by Spain, then being twenty minutes away from the knockout stages.

[JS_FFC]

1 hour ago, Monkey Tennis said:

If we get beaten 9-0 in the opening game, we'll still have two bites at the cherry.  

2 subsequent wins would certainly get us through while a win and a draw in either order would almost certainly get us through.

I think you’ve misunderstood the phrase “two bites at the cherry”.

 

Usually it is taken to mean you have two opportunities to achieve only one aim. Any situation where we need a win AND a draw means we don’t by definition have two bites at the cherry. 

[Monkey Tennis]

25 minutes ago, JS_FFC said:

I think you’ve misunderstood the phrase “two bites at the cherry”.

 

Usually it is taken to mean you have two opportunities to achieve only one aim. Any situation where we need a win AND a draw means we don’t by definition have two bites at the cherry. 

Ah, I suppose so.

Fair enough.  We maybe can't lose in either, if we lose to Germany beforehand.

However, a narrow defeat to Germany might also provide the two bites, although that might only become apparent with hindsight.

Edited May 3 by Monkey Tennis

[craigkillie]

The thing to note with all this chat about 3 points being enough for a best third place side ignores the fact that it could also potentially be possible to finish 2nd (or 4th) with 3 points in a group like ours. If Germany ended up winning all their games (albeit this is unlikely I think), and then us, Switzerland and Hungary trade wins, then it would come down to the head-to-head table across these matches.

[Chewing Taffies]

22 minutes ago, craigkillie said:

If Germany ended up winning all their games (albeit this is unlikely I think)

I think Germany will win all 3 games. Plenty of players hitting good form at the right time - Havertz, Wirtz, Musiala etc.  Just beat Holland and France.

Edited May 3 by Chewing Taffies

[BFTD]

4 hours ago, craigkillie said:

The thing to note with all this chat about 3 points being enough for a best third place side ignores the fact that it could also potentially be possible to finish 2nd (or 4th) with 3 points in a group like ours. If Germany ended up winning all their games (albeit this is unlikely I think), and then us, Switzerland and Hungary trade wins, then it would come down to the head-to-head table across these matches.

Also possible to finish second with two points if we can come to a shitfesting agreement with the Swiss and Magyars. Hell, we could finish top with three draws if Ze Germans go back to being as duff as they've been for the past few years.

f**k it - it's about time someone won one of these tournaments without winning a single game, and if it's going to be anyone, it'll be...well, TBH, probably the Swiss.

[craigkillie]

11 hours ago, Chewing Taffies said:

I think Germany will win all 3 games. Plenty of players hitting good form at the right time - Havertz, Wirtz, Musiala etc.  Just beat Holland and France.

I don't think there's much point in analysing friendlies (albeit that's obviously all they've played since 2022), and I think they have three quite stodgy opponents in their group where I'd expect them to at least end up drawing with one of us.

[JS_FFC]

9 hours ago, BFTD said:

Also possible to finish second with two points if we can come to a shitfesting agreement with the Swiss and Magyars. Hell, we could finish top with three draws if Ze Germans go back to being as duff as they've been for the past few years.

f**k it - it's about time someone won one of these tournaments without winning a single game, and if it's going to be anyone, it'll be...well, TBH, probably the Swiss.

Portugal came pretty close to doing this at Euro 2016. Their record was as follows:

 

Portugal 1-1 Iceland

Portugal 0-0 Austria

Hungary 3-3 Portugal

 

They snuck through as the third best 3rd placed team

 

Then:

 

Last 16: Croatia 0-1 Portugal (Scored 3 minutes from the end of extra time)

 

QF: Poland 1-1 Portugal (Portugal won 5-3 on penalties)

 

SF: Portugal 2-0 Wales (only “proper” win of the tournament)

 

F: Portugal 1-0 France (ET winner in the 109th minute)

[JS_FFC]

13 hours ago, craigkillie said:

The thing to note with all this chat about 3 points being enough for a best third place side ignores the fact that it could also potentially be possible to finish 2nd (or 4th) with 3 points in a group like ours. If Germany ended up winning all their games (albeit this is unlikely I think), and then us, Switzerland and Hungary trade wins, then it would come down to the head-to-head table across these matches.

I think the key point is that 4 points is enough and 2 almost certainly isn’t. If you get 3 points it’s complete luck of the draw both in terms of where you finish in the group and how high up the 3rd place rankings.

 

The aim has to be to beat either Switzerland or Hungary and nick a point off the other one. The opener is a free hit.