Euro 2024 Expectations

[2426255]

Our squad depth's been tested several times with injuries and we've used alternative options. (Taylor, Hyam, Jack, Armstrong, Ferguson, Ralston, Souttar, McKenna, Clark, McLean, Cooper etc) They've been bedded in over a period of years.

Depends if you think the players below that will make a significant difference. Turnbull and Fraser have been in squads before reasonably recently.

Edited April 28 by 2426255

[JS_FFC]

On 27/04/2024 at 13:07, Lurkst said:

Bearing in mind our group finishes first we'll probably have to set a decent total to have a chance of being one of the best third place teams.

 

Based on the last two tournaments, 4 points should guarantee qualification. 3 would probably put us in a goal difference tiebreaker so probably better to draw all 3 games than win 1 and lose 2, unless the win is a fairly heavy one.

[VictorOnopko]

14 hours ago, JS_FFC said:

Based on the last two tournaments, 4 points should guarantee qualification. 3 would probably put us in a goal difference tiebreaker so probably better to draw all 3 games than win 1 and lose 2, unless the win is a fairly heavy one.

Based on Scotland's history at finals, if it goes down to GD then we're out. 

[nate]

9 hours ago, VictorOnopko said:

Based on Scotland's history at finals, if it goes down to GD then we're out. 

It’s not unreasonable to say that in a group with one superior team, and three others more or less at the same level, it comes down to whoever loses to Germany by the smallest margin. Getting Germany first looked ideal 5 months ago, but I’m thinking this is now a handicap. The goal difference situation is clearly going to be vital. I’d take a one-goal loss to Germany right now. Our probable back line of second-tier makeweights and guys out of position fills you with fear. Even a tube like Havertz is starting to get a bit tasty recently.

[BFTD]

Alright, let's not panic too much about Ze Germans yet. They've had two good friendly results, but let's look at the broader picture here. Maybe they'll be contenders by June, or maybe they're going to make a c**t of this tournament too - the latter still seems more likely. Claiming they're going to batter everyone in the group is a huge overreaction.

[nate]

44 minutes ago, BFTD said:

Alright, let's not panic too much about Ze Germans yet. They've had two good friendly results, but let's look at the broader picture here. Maybe they'll be contenders by June, or maybe they're going to make a c**t of this tournament too - the latter still seems more likely. Claiming they're going to batter everyone in the group is a huge overreaction.

The broader picture doesn’t come into it. It’s all about recent form going into a tourney. Results from a year ago are largely irrelevant. That’s why those clever - and rich- bookies have Germany pegged at third faves to win the thing outright. Half the German players in their most recent squad were playing Champs or Europa League etc knockout football. I think we had two or three guys doing likewise. We’re rank outsiders to get even a point from the opener for those reasons. It’s the other two games that will define our tournament.

[Theroadlesstravelled]

Scoring more than 1 goal would be great.

I don't see it though. 

[BFTD]

1 hour ago, nate said:

The broader picture doesn’t come into it. It’s all about recent form going into a tourney. Results from a year ago are largely irrelevant. That’s why those clever - and rich- bookies have Germany pegged at third faves to win the thing outright. Half the German players in their most recent squad were playing Champs or Europa League etc knockout football. I think we had two or three guys doing likewise. We’re rank outsiders to get even a point from the opener for those reasons. It’s the other two games that will define our tournament.

Is it though? I thought about making a thread on this topic a while ago, as I can remember a few tournaments where the winners were on dogshit form right up to the knockout stage. It's obviously preferable to be doing well, but it would be interesting to see. Also, they were on poor form until last month, and have only won two games; still a bit early to be thinking they're back to their traditional best, surely.

It gets pointed out a lot on here that tournament odds have less to do with who bookies think will win, and more about what they think will get them the most revenue, as evidenced by the fact that England generally get different odds elsewhere in Europe to the ones we see. The gamblers will know more than me, but Germany being third favourites might be more to do with them being a popular bet here and the bookies wanting to limit their risk on a traditional superpower.

54 minutes ago, Theroadlesstravelled said:

Scoring more than 1 goal would be great.

I don't see it though. 

Technically we can win the tournament without scoring a single goal.

I don't see John McGinn allowing that to happen though.

[allyo]

On 26/04/2024 at 08:49, Lex said:

Winning a game would be the first target, remarkably we haven't won a single game at a major tournament since 1996. Second target is just not finishing bottom of the group. The dream is to qualify from a group stage at a major tournament for the first time ever, which is doable but will be tough.

I'm 52 and in my living memory we've won two tournament games which could be genuinely celebrated, I.e. we weren't eliminated at the end of the game.

One of these was against New Zealand and at the end all anyone was talking about was how we'd blown it by conceding two goals (which was ultimately true).

So just one really.

Edited April 29 by allyo

[nate]

19 hours ago, BFTD said:

Is it though? I thought about making a thread on this topic a while ago, as I can remember a few tournaments where the winners were on dogshit form right up to the knockout stage. It's obviously preferable to be doing well, but it would be interesting to see. Also, they were on poor form until last month, and have only won two games; still a bit early to be thinking they're back to their traditional best, surely.

It gets pointed out a lot on here that tournament odds have less to do with who bookies think will win, and more about what they think will get them the most revenue, as evidenced by the fact that England generally get different odds elsewhere in Europe to the ones we see. The gamblers will know more than me, but Germany being third favourites might be more to do with them being a popular bet here and the bookies wanting to limit their risk on a traditional superpower.

Technically we can win the tournament without scoring a single goal.

I don't see John McGinn allowing that to happen though.

Fair enuff, but I wouldn’t think Germany would be that popular a bet here or over the border…would think neutral punters more likely to favour France/Spain/England or maybe Portugal. It’s all ifs and buts, but my hunch is that Germany are a minimum SF here. 

[BFTD]

11 minutes ago, nate said:

Fair enuff, but I wouldn’t think Germany would be that popular a bet here or over the border…would think neutral punters more likely to favour France/Spain/England or maybe Portugal. It’s all ifs and buts, but my hunch is that Germany are a minimum SF here. 

I saw something a while back that said Germany were one of the most UK popular bets at Euros/World Cups as they have such a fearsome reputation - they're England's bogey team and bete noire, so I suppose it would hurt a bit less to get beaten by them again if you got a bit of cash in the process. Google's letting me down here, though.

[Tangled web]

Reading through this thread I realised that we have only won 3 tournament games in the last 40 years. I also realised that I was at all of them. I'm fully booked with tickets to be at all the games in Germany and when we win one of them (just one mind you) I will immediately be on here to take the credit. In the meantime I hope I can get over this injury in time to go.

[Butters Scotch]

Our winning record at major tournaments is pretty embarrassing and should be seen as a failure considering the players we had playing for us down the years.

The likes of Northern Ireland, Rep of Ireland and Wales have qualified from their groups more than once so even playing well and no making the knockouts should still be seen as failure IMO.

We should really be striving and expect more as we are way too down on ourselves as a nation, does my tits in. 

[Gordopolis]

1 hour ago, Butters Scotch said:

so even playing well and no making the knockouts should still be seen as failure IMO.

 

Yeah I'll be fucking raging if we make the knockouts

[Bing.McCrosby]

4 minutes ago, Gordopolis said:

Yeah I'll be fucking raging if we make the knockouts

Ill knock one out if we make the knock outs.

[BFTD]

Just now, Bing.McCrosby said:

Ill knock one out if we make the knock outs.

Knockouts with yer cock out.

[Butters Scotch]

8 minutes ago, Gordopolis said:

Yeah I'll be fucking raging if we make the knockouts

Why? 

[craigkillie]

On 29/04/2024 at 16:32, nate said:

It’s not unreasonable to say that in a group with one superior team, and three others more or less at the same level, it comes down to whoever loses to Germany by the smallest margin. Getting Germany first looked ideal 5 months ago, but I’m thinking this is now a handicap. The goal difference situation is clearly going to be vital. I’d take a one-goal loss to Germany right now. Our probable back line of second-tier makeweights and guys out of position fills you with fear. Even a tube like Havertz is starting to get a bit tasty recently.

Who do you think is going to be out of position in our defence?

[Bing.McCrosby]

9 minutes ago, craigkillie said:

Who do you think is going to be out of position in our defence?

Keiran Tierney

[VictorOnopko]

Several times before we've been in the situation where we needed to win our 3rd game to qualify (sometimes by a certain margin) and we've either failed, or missed out by a goal.

This time around, 3 points could/should be enough as 4 of the 3rd placed teams go through.  So we need to avoid a drubbing in either of the first two*, which I think we will managed (and may well take a point or two) then we need to beat Hungary if we haven't beaten the Germans or the Swiss.  I think we can beat Hungary in a one off match.

*Please don't get drubbed, Scotland.

Edited May 6 by VictorOnopko