Bully Wee Villa Posted May 22 Share Posted May 22 (edited) We've got a who will you vote for thread, may as well have a predictions one. Feel free to put any other speculation in here. Will Labour win a landslide or be forced into the dreaded "Coalition of Chaos"? Will defeated Tories be forming an orderly queue outside GB News begging for work? Will John Swinney get the new manager bounce? How will the Lib Dems get on? Will anyone notice? How will the minor parties do? Will George Galloway buy a new hat? Edited May 22 by Bully Wee Villa 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superwell87 Posted May 22 Share Posted May 22 Labour will walk the election down south, and we could end up seeing the most one sided vote in recent times. I think the SNP will still be the largest party in Scotland, but with a smaller majority. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Highlandmagar Posted May 22 Share Posted May 22 Hung parliament. SNP largest part in Scotland, but with a few losses. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BFTD Posted May 22 Share Posted May 22 3 minutes ago, Highlandmagar said: Hung parliament. SNP largest part in Scotland, but with a few losses. Jesus boys, you don't half make it easy sometimes. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JS_FFC Posted May 22 Share Posted May 22 Labour will win an outright majority of around 110-120. They’ll win more seats than the Tories did in 2019 but fall just short of getting to 400 seats. In Scotland I think the SNP will do a bit better than the current polling but still lose seats. Hilariously, Douglas Ross loses his seat. Total seat prediction (Scottish seats in brackets) Labour: 383 (21) Conservatives: 188 (4) SNP: 29 (29) Lib Dems: 27 (5) Others: 23 (0) 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BFTD Posted May 22 Share Posted May 22 Can we have a chart of "seats to watch" please. Which current/former cabinet ministers are likely to get the sack this time out, and which will be likely to produce the greatest schadenfreude? 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scottsdad Posted May 22 Share Posted May 22 Sunak to pull off the biggest upset in history, 200 seat majority, PM for life. Labour to disband. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
carpetmonster Posted May 22 Share Posted May 22 (edited) 22 minutes ago, BFTD said: Can we have a chart of "seats to watch" please. Which current/former cabinet ministers are likely to get the sack this time out, and which will be likely to produce the greatest schadenfreude? Not sure how up to date the polling is on them, but thread here might be a useful kick-off point. It's certainly a decent wishlist. ETA - he's sourcing from https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/homepage.html Edited May 22 by carpetmonster 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JS_FFC Posted May 22 Share Posted May 22 2 minutes ago, carpetmonster said: Not sure how up to date the polling is on them, but thread here might be a useful kick-off point. It's certainly a decent wishlist. Does this guy realise that Boris resigned as an MP last year, 30p Lee isn’t even a Tory any more and a bunch of them are resigning? Would love to see Jeremy Hunt lose his seat. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
carpetmonster Posted May 22 Share Posted May 22 Just now, JS_FFC said: Does this guy realise that Boris resigned as an MP last year, 30p Lee isn’t even a Tory any more and a bunch of them are resigning? Would love to see Jeremy Hunt lose his seat. 30p Lee is an interesting* one. I wonder if he's more or less likely to retain his seat now that he'll have no access to any levers of power - ie could he be seen as a protest vote for folks who say what they bloody well like and like what they bloody well say (https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2024/jan/20/i-dont-think-theyre-bothered-about-people-up-here-voters-in-lee-andersons-ashfield-turning-their-back-on-all-politicians), or has he busted his own flush? *i say 'interesting' very guardedly. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BFTD Posted May 22 Share Posted May 22 18 minutes ago, carpetmonster said: Not sure how up to date the polling is on them, but thread here might be a useful kick-off point. It's certainly a decent wishlist. ETA - he's sourcing from https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/homepage.html I'm refusing to get carried away for a couple of reasons. It would be devastating to have the popcorn ready, only to see minor comic-book fascist villains like Braverman squeak back in by a few hundred votes, and It will affect virtually none of them in any tangible way; they'll either retire to advisory "work" leeching free salaries for the favours they granted, or will just hang about for five years and run the next government from behind the scenes, like Hague, Duncan Smith, Howard and their ilk. Still, should be a good night. Starmer will have to pull off a double Kinnock/triple May salchow to f**k this up. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jedi2 Posted May 22 Share Posted May 22 (edited) Page 1, line 1 of the SNP Manifesto..Vote SNP for Scotland to become Independent..or has that changed again now? If not, this is a de-facto Ref in which the SNP need to win a majority of seats, to then...(the not clear part)..'give a democratic mandate to Scotland becoming an Independent country' Is that 'negotiations for a Referendum? Is it 'negotiations' for a division of debts/assets? Is it 'negotiations' for the start of the process of Scotland withdrawing from the UK? Again..they don't know themselves. Seat Prediction in Scotland Labour 30 SNP 19 Tories 5 Lib Dems 3 And the spin..'a good night for the SNP' Edited May 22 by Jedi2 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BFTD Posted May 22 Share Posted May 22 This is in the wrong thread again, isn't it. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GordonS Posted May 22 Share Posted May 22 1 hour ago, JS_FFC said: Hilariously, Douglas Ross loses his seat. He's not running. 74% of the Moray seat is in Moray West, Nairn and Strathspey, which starts as a nominal SNP seat. The other 26% is in Aberdeenshire North and Moray East, which starts as Tory. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GordonS Posted May 22 Share Posted May 22 For more on the new boundaries in Scotland, who's nominally in the lead and which theoretically change hands, see: https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/bdy2023_scot_summary.html 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jedi2 Posted May 22 Share Posted May 22 9 minutes ago, BFTD said: This is in the wrong thread again, isn't it. 'Seat Predictions in Scotland' Labour 30 SNP 19 Tories 5 Lib Dems 3 Is in the 'wrong thread' in a thread entitled "General Election 2024 Predictions'? I noticed that you managed a 'Labour Bad' post in 'When will IndyRef 2' happen when there is a 'Labour Bad' thread already but carry on.... 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bully Wee Villa Posted May 22 Author Share Posted May 22 1 hour ago, JS_FFC said: Does this guy realise that Boris resigned as an MP last year, 30p Lee isn’t even a Tory any more and a bunch of them are resigning? He does, he mentions that at the end. Gullis is a near certainty to go, if he doesn't something has gone drastically wrong for Labour. Rees-Mogg should go. Braverman would be a dream and if Sunak goes then it would be the biggest beating an incumbent government had ever suffered. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Michael W Posted May 22 Share Posted May 22 1 hour ago, carpetmonster said: Not sure how up to date the polling is on them, but thread here might be a useful kick-off point. It's certainly a decent wishlist. ETA - he's sourcing from https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/homepage.html Much as that contains a number of moments to stay up for, I can't see a few of them. Boris Johnson is still there for instance. Braverman's majority is 26,000, which feels insurmountable. It would be glorious to see that dreadful woman punted out of office, but I expect she'll survive with a majority that's slightly more than halved. Tories to lose 150-200 seats Labour to have 1 or 2 more seats than the SNP in Scotland. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
parsforlife Posted May 22 Share Posted May 22 18 minutes ago, GordonS said: For more on the new boundaries in Scotland, who's nominally in the lead and which theoretically change hands, see: https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/bdy2023_scot_summary.html Just looking at west/central fife these re-adjustments seem unnecessary at best in places and absolutely fucking wild in others. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GordonS Posted May 22 Share Posted May 22 7 minutes ago, parsforlife said: Just looking at west/central fife these re-adjustments seem unnecessary at best in places and absolutely fucking wild in others. They had to reduce the number of seats and they have a fairly narrow band of allowable constituency sizes. In a lumpy, weird-shaped country like Scotland it's impossible to make boundaries that are all nice and neat or match communities. Start at any coast and build constituencies and you soon end up having to put disparate communities together. For any given constituency try changing things to make them more consistent and you'll soon wreck the ones next to it anyway. It's not remotely important there's any cohesion in constituency boundaries anyway, they're not like local authorities. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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